Welcome to the 14th edition of NFL Confidence Pool Picks. Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games. With 13 games this week, games will be ranked from 16 points down to 1 point — the higher the number, the more confident the play. Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Washington are on the bye. This week’s NFL confidence pool picks are highlighted by the Browns-Bengals matchup, where Deshaun Watson will look to beat Joe Burrow.
Some early strategies in the NFL confidence pool picks center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any ** denotes an upset.
Week 14 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
- Dallas Cowboys (-2000) vs. Houston Texans
It’s a nice story to tell leading up to this weekend, but the Houston Texans aren’t beating the Dallas Cowboys. There’s jumping ahead of strong favorites with the hope that you lose less if they fall, and then there’s stupidity. Take the 13 points and find leverage elsewhere.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-455) at Denver Broncos
Another team that’s hard to fade in the win or lose department is Kansas City. They come off one of their worst December losses in some time and face a Broncos team at its worst. That’s the first loss in the final month of the year for Patrick Mahomes and you better believe his team will bounce back.
- Detroit Lions (-117) vs. Minnesota Vikings*
Now the fun begins and it’s at the expense of all the joy happening in Detroit. Dan Campbell has his guys believing, but all the Vikings have done is win. They withstood the Mike White Experience last week moving to their 10th win of the season. Outside of Philadelphia, nobody has won more games in the NFL. Yet here they are nearly a 3-point road favorite against the latest flash in the NFL. Minnesota gives up a lot of points, but so do the Lions. That 40-3 loss to the Cowboys looks more and more like an outlier for the Vikings.
- Cincinnati Bengals (-250) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Bengals are playing solid football and are coming off a gigantic December victory over the Chiefs. The Bengals are one of the league’s hottest teams with a true chance to win the AFC North. Protecting Joe Burrow has made all the difference – and their run game showed incredible depth. The Browns are still working in a new quarterback, and let’s face it, Deshaun Watson isn’t going to look polished overnight.
- New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-455)
We’ve dropped the Bills as low as possible at the 9-point spot. They face an aggressive Jets defense that should look to continue to impress following a good hold on the road in Minnesota. The 27 points were the most they gave up since their loss to Cincinnati in late September. There’s little doubt that unit will travel well on Sunday – the question remains about the offense. Buffalo has too much firepower where they just need to establish a double-digit lead early to put away this game.
- Tennessee Titans (-200) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Hard to think Mike Vrabel’s team doesn’t bounce back from an emotionally and physically disappointing loss. While the drama focused around their former WR the reality is the Titans are banged up in the trenches. It might be enough for a healthy Jacksonville Jaguars team but with questions surrounding Trevor Lawrence’s health, it might not be enough to take advantage. Doug Pederson is a proven coach who will have a game plan against the Titans, but ultimately Tennessee has the biggest difference maker in Derrick Henry – assuming they use him.
- Seattle Seahawks (-195) vs. Carolina Panthers
Seattle is another team quietly taking care of business just not doing it in the cleanest form. They survived against a Rams team that’s barely showing a pulse but continued to show why they are a dangerous team in general. Geno Smith is comfortably leading the offense downfield and still taking deep chances. Carolina is just a mess, but they hang in games. It’s crazy that trading away Christian McCaffrey opened up the run game – or maybe it was firing their former head coach.
- Las Vegas Raiders (-240) at Los Angeles Rams
Speaking of the barely alive Rams, they host a suddenly alive Raiders team. Winners of three straight and doing it with a banged-up Josh Jacobs, the focus is clearly back within the Raiders locker room. The issue is for how long. They are also the team that dropped three straight before this win streak began, and face a Rams team that still has some talent around the QB position. To be fair, their defense has looked way more alive than their offense. We don’t expect an upset, but we certainly don’t want to put the Raiders up any higher on the list.
- Miami Dolphins (-162) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Dolphins suffered an ugly loss where their QB handed over – multiple times – game tying drives. It was tough to see this Miami offense just sputter, but their opponent deserves all the credit. Hard to think the same script will play out this week, especially since the Chargers are all over the place. They’ve dropped three of four with a lone win coming against a team even more unhinged in the Cardinals. It’s hard to quantify what LA is doing on a weekly basis because their coaching down to execution can be mind-boggling. The only reason why the Fins are so low is due to significant injuries to their offensive line.
- New England Patriots (-120) at Arizona Cardinals
There’s a proven betting method to fade Kliff Kingsbury after his bye week. There’s something about a message lost that impacts his failure to cover spreads and win games. There’s no better encapsulation of that than this week, returning from the bye, and facing the Patriots. While New England’s offense is in disarray with their QB challenging their OC, they aren’t anywhere near as off the rails as Arizona. If only New England had more talent in the passing game as it would raise their point value significantly higher this week.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-315) at New York Giants**
Unlike the majority of people who either place the Eagles atop their confidence pool – or drop them to 9 or 8-point plays to gain leverage – we are simply rewarding you for them losing the game. The Giants are an enigma wrapped in a mystery, and somehow, they are winning more football games than they lose. Much like against Washington, the Eagles face a familiar foe who understands the value of patience in the run game. They also have a mobile QB in Daniel Jones who can take advantage of holes in the Eagles run defense. It’s been an MVP year for Jalen Hurts and his Arizona-bound Eagles, but they remain grounded this week.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-149) vs. Baltimore Ravens
The questions surrounding Lamar Jackson are huge here as things should drastically shift if he is somehow cleared to return. The other issue is how dynamic the Steelers defense is since the return of T.J. Watt. Without Jackson, the Ravens are dead on arrival in the pocket. There’s just too much uncertainty to do much, and even if Jackson does play, the Ravens love handing over leads late in games.
- San Francisco 49ers (-195) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one is the toughest game to call on the slate. There are way too many concerns surrounding the 49ers offense, how it moves with a full week to prepare for Brock Purdy, and the mounted pressure on the defense to nearly pitch a shutout. The good news for the Niners remains how bad – or at least inconsistent – the Bucs offense is. They may still be down some key players on defense and Tampa needs to establish a pulse, let alone consistency, in the backfield. Too many questions for too many key spots – including Tom Brady.
