All eyes are on Ja Morant ahead of Game 2 in the Los Angeles Lakers-Memphis Grizzlies series. Morant went down with a hand injury in Game 1 and is a game-time decision. His presence — or absence — will significantly affect the Lakers-Grizzlies betting odds, but regardless, DraftKings has left too much value on the Jaren Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman Sr. player prop markets for Game 2. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Lakers-Grizzlies Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jaren Jackson Jr. O/U 1.5 Turnovers
The Grizzlies are cooked without Ja Morant, and although the coaching staff says that he is a game-time decision, the odds of him playing at full strength are near zero. Just look at his post-game body language. Even if he can return this series, expect the Grizzlies to turn to other players as ball handlers and playmakers in those games.
Enter Jaren Jackson Jr. The star big man recorded an impressive 31 points on 13-for-21 from the field in Game 1. He also dished out four assists and turned the ball over just once. However, that turnover came deep down the stretch after Morant exited the game in the fourth quarter. Anthony Davis took it right out of Jackson’s hands as he drove to the basket. Expect more of this as Jackson is forced to step up for Morant.
Jackson played 16 games without Morant this season. He averaged a whopping 1.9 turnovers per game and coughed the ball up at least twice in 10, or 62.5%, of those contests. This includes a two-turnovers showing against the Los Angeles Lakers in early March. The Lakers didn’t even have LeBron James in that matchup, so Jackson’s life could get even more difficult come Wednesday night.
The over for this prop feels significantly underpriced at only -140 (58.3%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. That number is already lower than Jackson’s regular-season hit rate without Morant, and with him likely to have to play an even larger workload in the playoffs, I have to play the over for enough to profit a half-unit. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Lakers-Grizzlies Player Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 1.5 Turnovers -140 for 0.7 Unit at DraftKings
Lakers-Grizzlies Game 2 NBA Player Prop | Xavier Tillman Sr.
Xavier Tillman Sr. Double-Double
We swung and missed by betting on this NBA prop in Game 1. Xavier Tillman Sr. got into foul trouble early. He shot 1-for-4 from the floor and played only 22 minutes before finishing with only two points and three rebounds. However, bettors eager to write Tillman off for Game 2 should remember what he did against the Lakers the last time Morant sat.
In early March, Tillman recorded an 11-point, 10-rebound double-double in the Crypto.com Arena. He shot only 5-for-9 from the floor and 1-for-2 from the charity stripe while playing for 32 minutes. Although head coach Taylor Jenkins may not want to trust Tillman after his dismal Game 1 showing, he doesn’t have many options in the frontcourt, especially if Jaren Jackson Jr. gets into foul trouble.
Further, despite his underwhelming start to the game, Tillman still got plenty of run. He played 7:58 in the first quarter, during which he racked up every point and rebound he would record, before playing 3:03 in the second quarter. Tillman then played another 8:49 in the third quarter, during which he dished out two assists and recorded a steal, before playing only 2:02 in the fourth as the Grizzlies went small to try and catch back up to the Lakers.
This play ultimately comes down to regression. Tillman averaged 9.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game as a starter in the regular season. He averaged 11.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game during Morant’s absence in March. He recorded two double-doubles across 10 starts during that sample. Let’s spread a half-unit between Tillman’s points and rebounds prop and his double-double prop.
Best Lakers-Grizzlies Player Prop: Xavier Tillman Sr. Over 15.5 Points & Rebounds -104 for 0.4 Unit at FanDuel
Best Lakers-Grizzlies Player Prop: Xavier Tillman Sr. Yes Double-Double +800 for 0.1 Unit at DraftKings
