Getting Damian Lillard back and signing Jerami Grant, Portland is poised to be better this year. After winning its season opener against Sacramento, the Trail Blazers host the Suns, who are coming off a narrow win over Dallas thanks to Damion Lee’s late-game bucket. This projects as a fun matchup between some of the league’s most exciting guards, with the Suns currently favored by 5 points. Focusing on the game’s first quarter total, the over looks quite enticing.
Best Suns-Trail Blazers Bets: First Quarter Total
Playing without Lillard for most of last season, Portland was one of the worst first quarter teams in the league. The Blazers had the fourth-worst net rating in the first quarter and were equally bad on both ends of the floor, finishing the regular season with the eighth-worst defensive rating and sixth-worst offensive rating. Portland played at a rather slow pace (19th) and was very limited offensively (52.7% effective field goal percentage, eighth worst), scoring an average of only 26.6 first quarter points, fifth fewest in the league.
Allowing opponents to shoot quite well (54.6% effective field goal percentage), the Blazers surrendered 28.4 points per opening quarter (19th) and lost it by an average margin of 1.8 points. The average score in the Blazers’ first quarter was 55, higher than today’s line.
Portland should be better this season, having both Lillard and Grant in the starting lineup. The Blazers’ improvement was already evident in their season opener against Sacramento (not the most formidable opponent though), as they won the first quarter by 9 points, scoring 32 points while holding Sacramento to only 23.
One of the league’s powerhouses last season, Phoenix was a very dominant first quarter team. As already covered in this space on Wednesday, the Suns had the sixth-best net rating in the opening quarter, winning by an average margin of 2.2 points. They played at the 10th-highest pace, scored 29.1 points and held opposing teams only 26.9 (fifth fewest). The average first quarter score in the Suns’ games was 56, which was exactly the score in Phoenix’s season opener against the Mavericks. Phoenix was on the losing side of that quarter, scoring only 24 points while surrendering 32. Dallas shot unsustainably well in that quarter (70% effective field goal percentage), while Phoenix did so quite poorly (45.8%, including 0-for-5 from 3), so there could be some improvement from the Suns on both ends of the floor in tonight’s matchup.
Neither team played particularly fast in their season opener, and Phoenix’s offense left much to be desired. However, this first quarter total seems too low considering both teams’ starting units and the potential for positive regression from Phoenix’s offense. Furthermore, while the game’s total (224) is 5.5 to 6 points higher than the Boston – Miami one, the first quarter total in both games is 53.5, the lowest on today’s slate. In fact, all other games on tonight’s slate with a lower game total actually have a higher first quarter total. As always, make sure to shop around; whereas most books have the total at 54.5, PointsBet has it at 53.5 (as of time of writing).
Suns-Trail Blazers Bet: Over 53.5 First Quarter Total Points (-135 at PointsBet)
