The Phoenix Suns host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a matchup between two of the better first-quarter teams so far this season (and last season). Phoenix will be missing Deandre Ayton (ankle) but is still favored to win the game (3.5-4 points) and its opening frame (0.5-1.5 points). Based on each team’s form to start the season, Minnesota is live to cover the first-quarter spread. Be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for the latest odds.
Best Timberwolves-Suns Bet: First-Quarter Spread
After trading for Rudy Gobert in one of the summer’s more surprising moves, Minnesota has high hopes for this season. While the team’s pedestrian 4-3 to start to the year leaves much to be desired, their first-quarter play has been much more impressive. Playing at a fast pace (105.14, fifth-fastest), the team has the fourth-best first-quarter net rating so far this season, winning it by an average margin of 5.8 points. Defensively, Minnesota has the fourth-best rating (101.1) while limiting opponents to a low 48.5% effective field goal percentage (fifth-best) and only 26.3 first-quarter points, tied for seventh-fewest in the league. After finishing last season with the fourth-best first-quarter defensive rating (105.8), Minnesota is poised to be even better on that end with Gobert in the lineup.
Their offense has been clicking as well. The team has the fourth-best offensive rating, scoring an average of 32.1 first-quarter points, second-most in the league behind only Boston (32.8). While we shouldn’t expect the team to have a 62.9% effective FG% mark by season’s end (Denver, last year’s leader in that category, finished the season with a 58.5% mark), early signs point to Minnesota being able to put up points early in games, just like they did last season.
Notably, though, Minnesota has yet to face a team of Phoenix’s caliber, playing against the Spurs (three times), Thunder (twice), Jazz and Lakers. As such, today’s matchup will be their toughest task to date.
Phoenix is also a very good first-quarter team, having the eighth-best first-quarter net rating (11.3) and a positive 2.9-point differential. They limit opponents to only 25.8 first-quarter points (fourth-fewest), largely thanks to their slow pace of play (tied for fourth-slowest) and stout defense (sixth-best). They shoot rather well (54.6% effective FG%) and have the 13th-best offensive rating, scoring an average of 28.7 first-quarter points (17th in the league). Phoenix is largely the same team it was last season, and much of these rates and ratings are in line with last year’s. Thus, Phoenix’s ability to dominate games’ opening quarters this season isn’t much of a surprise.
Phoenix had a tougher schedule than Minnesota to start the season, however, two of their last three games were against a very short-handed Pelicans team and the Rockets. While they did impress against Golden State prior to these games (winning the opening quarter by eight points), they actually lost to the Pelicans (21-27) and should be challenged tonight, playing without one of their key players against a difficult opponent. They also rely on second chances, fast breaks and opponents’ turnovers to score. While Minnesota does allow the second-most second-chance points per opening quarter so far, its defense is around the upper-third of the league in limiting opponents’ points off of turnovers and fast breaks.
As alluded to, Minnesota’s impressive rates are based on the team’s soft schedule to start the season. While these rates are most likely skewed as a result, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they are a fluke. The team was very good offensively last season and their improved defensive play is almost a given with Gobert on the team. While Phoenix is an excellent first-quarter team and is playing at home, Minnesota has the tools to maintain its elite first-quarter play and cover today’s first-quarter spread. While we’re getting plus money odds for Minnesota to win the opening quarter or cover +0.5, the preferred play here is Minnesota +1.5.
Timberwolves-Suns Bet: Timberwolves +1.5 First Quarter Spread (-120 at DraftKings).
