Christmas Day has already begun for the NBA, and it gets even better in the evening as the Golden State Warriors host the Memphis Grizzlies. And while Golden State is down its superstar, Memphis is still providing a lot of opportunity for props.
And the best place to find these top Grizzlies-Warriors props is with Stokastic’s new NBA Bet Pro. It breaks down all of the props for an entire slate or by individual games, team or even players, and allows you to sort by win percentage expected ROI and how much it projects to build your bankroll. If that’s not enough proof, try for yourself with a free three-day trial of NBA Bet Pro.
Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro is favoring these three Grizzlies-Warriors props for Christmas Day.
Today’s Top Grizzlies-Warriors Props | Dec. 25
Brandon Clarke O/U 9.5 Points
Brandon Clarke has historically floated in and out of Memphis’ big-minute rotations, but December has been fairly kind to him. He has gone for double-digit points in every game this month (10 straight) and even dropped 24 last time out against the Suns. Plus, he has played at least 20 minutes in 6 of 10 games in December.
That said, Clarke is in an odd spot tonight against a hampered Warriors team. Golden State being down Stephen Curry completely changes its offensive makeup, and that leads to a drastically slower-paced game. For the whole season, the Warriors rank second in the NBA in pace. But with Curry out the last four games, they have dipped to 12th in that category — a pace down from Memphis’ No. 6 ranking in that span.
So while Clarke has hit his season scoring average all month (10.4 points per game), the matchup should lead to fewer possessions, meaning fewer shots for Clarke. In fact, Stokastic NBA Bet Pro is favoring the unders on pretty much every Memphis player’s scoring prop tonight; Clarke’s under just so happens to have the highest projected return among them.
Best Grizzlies Warriors Prop: Brandon Clarke UNDER 9.5 Points (-111, FanDuel)
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Ja Morant O/U 1.5 Made 3’s
With Curry out, Ja Morant is far and away the highest-profile star in the game. And while the matchup with a slowing Warriors team makes his points and assist overs lower-value plays, his 3-point attempts are a different story. Morant is (narrowly) averaging career highs in 3-point takes and makes at a percentage well above his career average (though slightly below last season’s mark).
As far as this line, Morant has essentially made either two-plus 3’s or no 3’s at all in every game in the past month. He has hit this over in six of his last nine games, averaging 5.3 attempts per game and making 1.56. It’s a narrow margin for the over, but this is comfortably the plus-money prop with the highest expected value in this game and the only plus-money play with a sEV (expected bank roll growth) over 20%.
Best Grizzlies Warriors Prop: Ja Morant OVER 1.5 Made 3’s (+100, DraftKings)
Jaren Jackson Jr. O/U 1.5 Blocks
Jaren Jackson Jr. block plays have been very popular as of late in NBA Bet Pro’s projections, and today is no exception. Jackson has proven himself to be one of the league’s elite shot blockers, blocking at least two shots in 11 of 15 games this season — with the volatility to go for as many as eight in one game.
And honestly, the value on this prop is relatively independent of the matchup. One might think that Curry being out would turn the Warriors into less of a 3-point shooting team and make them more likely to attack the basket, but that has not been the case at all. They still rank near the bottom of the league in 2-point take percentage and percentage of shots within 10 feet.
This is all about Jackson’s dominance as a rim protector and his propensity to turn shots away at the rim. As a result, the over on Jackson’s blocks today has by far the most value of any Grizzlies-Warriors prop on the board, both long term and short term.
Best Grizzlies Warriors Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. OVER 1.5 Blocks (-190, DraftKings)
