Usually, a matchup between superstars like LeBron James and Nikola Jokic would draw more fan interest. But with how terrible the Los Angeles Lakers have looked, fans would be wise to approach the Wednesday night matchup with skepticism. The Lakers are 5.5-point road underdogs, according to the NBA odds, but they are also 0-3 against the spread. Bettors should check out OddsShopper’s top resources and tools to see what other sharp bets are on the board.
Best Lakers-Nuggets Odds, Nikola Jokic Props
Lakers Struggling on Offense But Excelling on Defense
Not much has gone right in Los Angeles this year. After an opening-night loss to the Warriors, the Lakers then fell to both the Clippers and Trail Blazers. The Lakers now rank 25th in net rating (-6.2), mostly because of their NBA-worst offense (97.2). On the bright side, their defense ranks an impressive second (103.4), and they lead the NBA in both steals (11.3) and opponent turnovers (20) per game. Their defense that ended last year ranked 29th in points allowed in the paint per game (51.5) now ranks first in the metric (37.3).
Unfortunately for Lakers fans, this roster might be terminally flawed. James can only do so much to carry a team that is shooting a combined 21.2% from beyond the arc, an association worst by over 6 percentage points. There is a wider gap between the Lakers and the 29th-ranked Thunder than between the Thunder and the 20th-ranked Indiana Pacers.
Los Angeles won't have Russell Westbrook tonight, but getting his atrocious shooting off the floor could give the offense a slight boost. That said, Westbrook ranks third on the Lakers in total rebounds and steals and second in total assists. The benefits of replacing him with a slightly better shooter may be outweighed by losses suffered elsewhere.
Nuggets Excelling on Offense But Struggling on Defense
The Nuggets have looked solid, but they haven't looked as dominant as some expected. They currently sit at 2-2, with an impressive win over the Warriors but concerning blowout losses to the Jazz and Trail Blazers. The narrow win over the Thunder isn't doesn't look great. Denver ranks a lowly 27th in net rating (-7.7) despite its 13th-ranked offense (113.5) because of its 28th-ranked defense (121.2). Still, Denver is tied for the lead in team effective field-goal percentage (57.7%), a metric in which their opponents rank dead last (45.2%).
Star center Jokic has picked up where he left off last year, but his supporting cast is still figuring things out. The star big man leads the NBA in touches and is almost averaging a triple-double. Jamal Murray has been a net negative so far this year and owns a rotation-worst effective field goal percentage of 43.2%. Three other rotation regulars, Jeff Green, Bones Hyland and Bruce Brown, have been less efficient than Murray. The DeAndre Jordan minutes haven't gone as terribly as some expected, but he has only been asked to play 10 of them per game.
Denver's defense has looked vulnerable to anything and everything. The Nuggets rank 29th in 3-pointers allowed per game (15.5) and 17th in points in the paint allowed per game (50.5). They have allowed the most opponent points off turnovers (23.3) in the association, although they rank a slightly better 20th in fast-break points allowed per game (16.3).
Final Lakers-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
Sharp bettors have two angles through which to attack this game. The first is in fading Jokic; for as efficient as Jokic has been, forcing him to touch the ball so often will leave him with plenty of chances to turn it over. Jokic averaged 5.76 turnovers per 36 minutes against the Lakers last year. With Los Angeles forced to play aggressive defense due to poor shooting, Jokic could easily fumble the ball plenty on Wednesday night.
The second is in fading both offenses. The loss of Westbrook won't suddenly lead to a backup guard like Malik Monk or Austin Reaves becoming a more efficient shooter. The Lakers will have to play incredibly tight defense to keep this game competitive, and that should reduce Denver's offensive production. While these teams are currently both playing at top-10 paces, that appears built into the total, which sits at a whopping 229.5. But assuming these teams play 104 possessions, which their average pace suggests they will, they would only combine for 219 points at their current offensive efficiency ratings.
Best Lakers-Nuggets Pick: UNDER 229.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Nikola Jokic Prop: OVER 3.5 Turnovers (-105) at DraftKings
