NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: The Regular Season Resumes! (Dec. 17)

Wednesday has a two-game slate as the NBA eases back to the regular season schedule with a late 8:00 p.m. ET lock on DraftKings and FanDuel. Check out the Stokastic NBA Tools to see how Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Santi Aldama and others rate for tonight’s NBA DFS action! Now let’s get into some NBA DFS strategy for Wednesday, Dec. 17.

NBA DFS Picks & Strategy: Wednesday, December 17

Santi Aldama: Grizzlies at Timberwolves

Brandon Clarke joins Morant in being listed questionable, as the former Gonzaga stalwart is getting close to making his season debut. It is also important to remember that Zach Edey and Jon Konchar are out with injuries.

On the Minnesota side, Mike Conley (Achilles) will miss a third straight game, and Anthony Edwards is questionable, having sat the last two tilts due to a foot issue.

Considering that the Timberwolves are 7.5-point home favorites, they do not need to rush Edwards back before he is ready.

There are a lot of moving parts, so be sure to tune into Stokastic’s NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:30 p.m. ET today to get all the up-to-date information and analysis, with detailed thoughts on DraftKings and FanDuel strategies.

Santi Aldama should retain most of his value if Clarke returns since it is likely he will have some sort of minutes cap. The main worry for Aldama is that his overall usage and effectiveness tend to bounce around, even when he has unfettered minutes. We can see that over the last three games, where he played 28, 35, and 30 minutes and recorded 37.8, 39.8, and 10 — yes, 10 — DraftKings fantasy points.

Jaren Jackson Jr. also has a wide range of outcomes, though this year he really struggles to find his ceiling in most games. He popped off for 57 DraftKings points on Monday, but that was preceded by six games of fewer than 30 fantasy points. Considering the matchup against Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert, the main reason Aldama and Jackson are getting traction is the four-team player pool.

Regarding Clarke, he is at the minimum on DraftKings ($3,000, 15.2%), making him a potential discount dandy, though on FanDuel ($3,900, 2.8%) he is not particularly appealing with a 10 to 12 guesstimation for playing time.

Morant is in the mix on the blue site ($7,700, 31.1%) but less intriguing on DraftKings ($7,900, 19.1%), with a median projection of 27.7 minutes.

Gobert, Randle, Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid are in the 25% to 35% projected rostership range on DraftKings. FanDuel has Edwards pushing over 54%, with his previously listed compatriots in the 30% to 40% range.

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Darius Garland: Cavaliers at Bulls

This has Darius Garland as the most popular player on DraftKings, while teammate Donovan Mitchell holds that honor on FanDuel. The matchup against Chicago is a good one, and even though the Cavaliers are shorthanded, the team projects for a tick shy of 124 points tonight.

Lonzo Ball played 31 minutes on Sunday against Charlotte, which was his first game over 25 minutes since he logged 34 in Toronto three weeks ago. He averaged 31.5 DraftKings fantasy points in those two games and is a fine discount option on the main DFS sites.

Since the start of last season, Jarrett Allen averages 1.25 fantasy points per minute when Mobley is off the court. He is collecting a lot of popularity on FanDuel ($6,100, 42.1%), where he also has power forward eligibility, and expectations are that he will be on one-third of DraftKings tournament entries. De’Andre Hunter should also be worthy of consideration since he will see some trickledown minutes and production from Mobley’s absence.

Dean Wade is a punt play, though he is never exciting as he defers to everyone else on the court.

The Cavs are just outside the top 10 for defensive efficiency this season, but the team was middle of the pack over the last 10 games, and it is unlikely that they will get better without the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year.

Colby White did not top 30 minutes in the most recent four games after his latest injury absence, though he should be in the 28- to 30-minute range tonight. He and Josh Giddey are secondary plays, while Matas Buzelis, Kevin Huerter and Nikola Vucevic are neutral at best on the main DFS sites.

Using Portfolio EV to Find Market-Based NBA Player Prop Bets

If you’re serious about making sharp NBA DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting, and that’s where Tails and the Portfolio EV tool shine.

Take a bet like Josh Giddey for under 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates!

Tonight Giddey is going against a still solid Cleveland defense, with Donovan Mitchell and De’Andre Hunter able to focus on him if he starts cooking. AS Portfolio EV does all the heavy lifting and screening of different wagers, it shows that Hard Rock is offering +115 is a beacon of 6.6% positive expected ROI in a sea of otherwise bad options.

DraftKings moved the threshold up to 36.5 PRA, though we can see that the -121 line is still a slightly negative expected ROI but well below Hard Rock’s offering. For the books also offering under 35.5 PRA, BetMGM’s -115 is actually a NEGATIVE 6.3% expected ROI when looking at the “true odds” of +102. It pays to be a savvy shopper!

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