NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Jazz, Mavs and MORE! (Dec. 15)

Monday has the NBA action tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Check out the Stokastic NBA Tools to see how Kyle Filipowski, Nikola Jokic, James Harden and a host of others rate for tonight’s NBA DFS action! Now let’s get into some NBA DFS strategy for Monday, Dec. 15.

NBA DFS Picks & Strategy: Monday, December 15

Kyle Filipowski: Jazz vs. Mavericks

Jusuf Nurkic (rest) is out tonight, and the last time the Bosnian Bear was out, Kyle Filipowski drew the spot start. Dereck Lively II is done for the season, and both Daniel Gafford and Anthony Davis are questionable. Davis is dealing with a sore left calf, which already cost him 14 games earlier this season. Considering that the Mavericks may be looking to move him, it would be a surprise to see him on the court if he is not good to go. Pay attention to the news leading up to lock.

Filipowski produces around a fantasy point per minute, and he should see 29 to 32 minutes as a starter, which makes him an easy click. Rookie Ace Bailey is less exciting with his fantasy production all over the place, but he is all but assured of 30 minutes of run, though 0.75 fantasy points per minute and a soft floor make him a little risky.

The Boom/Bust option tonight is Keyonte George, who is coming off a 63.5-DraftKings point outing in Memphis, and he had 47-plus fantasy points in six of his last nine games. In the other three he had 17.8, 23.5 and 2.3. That nadir was against Houston, where George missed all six of his field goal attempts and turned the ball over eight times in his 19 minutes. He did redeem himself the following night against the Rockets with 28 points, four rebounds, eight assists and a steal, though he still had six turnovers.

Lauri Markkanen is a neutral option on both sites, while Walker Clayton Jr. is in the mix as a discount dandy on DraftKings ($3,500, 28.2%). Kevin Love is potentially in play on the featured slate, coming off his best game of the season with 20 points, eight rebounds, one assist and one steal in only 20.3 minutes of action in Memphis. He mostly plays the backup center minutes behind Nurkic, so it will be interesting to see if any news about his role tonight is revealed prior to tipoff.

This is a good matchup for Davis if he plays, though we are all aware of the in-game injury potential. Naji Marshall will go from a secondary option to a core play if Davis is out, and PJ Washington will make a leap from the tertiary tier to being strongly recommended in all formats.

D’Angelo Russell (illness) is out for a second consecutive game, which gives more security to rookie Ryan Nembhard and journeyman Brandon Williams running the offense while they continue to split the point guard minutes down the middle. There is a chance they will share the court, though on the season they overlapped for around 60 minutes.

Isaiah Collier and Kevin Love are in the mix for the two-game evening sub-slate on DraftKings, with Love definitely on the short list given the four-team player pool.

Looking for Monday Night Football DFS analysis? Check out this F-R-E-E article from Stokastic/Tails.

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Nikola Jokic: Nuggets vs. Rockets

Houston is a tough matchup, but Jokic has no peers and, most importantly, this projects to be a close matchup with Denver favored by a bucket at home. The three-time NBA MVP currently leads the league with 12.3 rebounds and 10.9 assists, while his 29.5 points per game are a tick shy of his career high. His popularity is likely to reach the 25% to 30% range on DraftKings and at least doubling on FanDuel, though still behind the other center-only players such as Jalen Duren and Ivica Zubac.

Tune into Stokastic’s NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET today, to get all the up-to-date information and analysis, with detailed thoughts on DraftKings and FanDuel strategies.

Jamal Murray is viable in tournaments, helping to shoulder the load while Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are out, though his increasing salary leaves less and less room for profit potential.

Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant have a similar assessment as Murray based on their current salaries, albeit for different factors. Houston is essentially at full strength, so that makes minutes and opportunities a little tight.

James Harden: Clippers vs. Grizzlies

Memphis did beat the Clippers twice in the last six games, though that was with Zach Edey helping to keep Zubac in check. Edey is out, and Jock Landale and Santi Aldama are not even close to his defensive and rebounding caliber.

Ja Morant returned from a 10-game layoff, logging 25.3 minutes, and we should expect a slow ramp-up to his usual 32- to 33-minute baseline. He also decreases the defense effectiveness when he is on the court, so that is another bonus for Los Angeles.

Kris Dunn is a punt option ($4,400, 24.5%), with Zubac an alternative to Jokic as a center-only play. Bogdan Bogdanovic and John Collins are neutral options on the FanDuel featured slate, though both are viable for the late-slate action.

Aldama is a little underpriced, but he has appeal since this slate is on the smaller side. He could flirt with 40 fantasy points, but something in the low 30s is a more realistic expectation.

Using Portfolio EV to Find Market-Based NBA Player Prop Bets

If you’re serious about making sharp NBA DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting, and that’s where Tails and the Portfolio EV tool shines.

Take a bet like Neemias Queta under 8.5 rebounds tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this.  Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates!

Tonight Queta is going against a fierce rebounding frontcourt in Detroit. The Pistons rank fourth overall in rebounding rate this season and third over the last 10 games. Jalen Duren, Isiah Stewart and Ausar Thompson are all above-average rebounders for their positions. Queta is a solid rebounder himself, but he can be foul-prone, which is adding additional risk against Duren.

Though he had 10-plus rebounds in the last two games, he had 16 total in the preceding three and projects for 8.2 tonight. That makes the +104 odds on BetRivers and other operators pop with a 7.2% positive expected ROI compared to the -111 “true odds,” and it is far superior to the various operators who lowered the line to -120 and -130, resulting in a NEGATIVE 4.4% to 7.2% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!

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