NFL Monday Night Football: Dolphins at Steelers (Week 15)

Monday Night Football brings us a Dolphins-Steelers matchup with Pittsburgh (7-6) half a game ahead of the Baltimore Ravens (7-7) in the AFC Central, holding a 76% probability of winning the division. Miami (6-7) is technically still alive with an incredibly slim chance of nabbing the last Wild Card slot, needing to win out and get help from multiple other teams. The Dolphins won four straight and five of the last six games, so keeping momentum is a priority for the franchise.

From a fantasy perspective, this game offers plenty of decision points, with both defenses having weaknesses and the offenses just good enough to exploit those opportunities. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks, we break down Dolphins-Steelers DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, focusing on MNF DFS picks, projected ownership and player projections that matter most in NFL DFS contests and NFL DFS showdown formats.

NFL DFS Picks: Dolphins-Steelers MNF DFS Showdown

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0 / 42.5)

Miami Dolphins Positional Preview

De’Von Achane

It could have been a monster day for the dynamic back, as reserve Jaylen Wright set career highs of 24 carries for 107 yards, plus a touchdown. The only blemish was doing nothing with his three targets. Rookie Ollie Gordon II also scored, collecting 17 yards on five totes.

Achane was a full participant in the final practice, and in the postgame presser after the 34-10 road win against the Jets, coach Mike McDaniel indicated that Achane could have returned if he was needed.

Pittsburgh struggled against opposing running backs, giving up 31/170/0 last week in Baltimore and 43/211/0 versus Buffalo in the preceding game. For the season, seven running backs topped 94 rushing yards, with Justin Fields (12/48/2), Drake Maye (7/45/0), Lamar Jackson (7/43/1) and Josh Allen (8/38/1) also finding success.

Achane is fourth in the league at 86.6 rushing yards per game, including 12 carries for 20-plus yards, which is two more than Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. The third-year back also is tops with 5.8 yards per carry, and he has 11 combined touchdowns. There is also additional upside in the passing game, where Achane has 73 targets, 55 receptions, 383 yards and four scores, and he has a chance to set personal bests down the stretch.

Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections have Achane for 20.8 carries and 93 yards, with Wright at 4.8 for 21 and Gordon seeing three for 13. Achane is earmarked for 5.2 targets, while Wright, Gordon and fullback Alec Ingold split the lone leftover.

Ingold has two carries this season, the last coming in Week 10. He also has seven targets, with the most recent coming in Week 8. Across the last two-plus seasons, including his 2023 Pro Bowl campaign, he is averaging just over 0.7 offensive opportunities per appearance.

Looking for Monday’s NBA DFS analysis? Check out this F-R-E-E article from Stokastic/Tails.

Quarterback: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

During the four-game winning streak, Tua Tagovailoa averaged 13.5 completions on 21.3 pass attempts for 157.0 yards, recording three touchdowns and three interceptions. That is not particularly enthralling, though it is hard to see McDaniel change a winning formula unless Pittsburgh puts early points on the board.

Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, we can see that Tagovailoa is -113 for more than 189.5 passing yards, -105 for over 15.5 rushing yards and even money to throw a touchdown pass. It is hard to be excited about a non-running quarterback, with limited volume — which also impacts all of the pass-catchers.

The Steelers are in the bottom quartile of the league, ceding 244.0 passing yards per game and middle of the pack with 22 passing touchdowns. In the last six games, Pittsburgh suffered only seven aerial strikes, so there is not much in favor of Tagovailoa tonight from any vantage point. The lone silver lining is that sportsbooks set the over/under for Tagovailoa’s pass attempts at 28.5, which would be higher than all but one of his last seven games.

Wide Receiver: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

Jaylen Waddle is going to have to battle Joey Porter Jr. tonight, in addition to his team’s low-volume approach. He leads the team with 86 targets for a 23% share, seeing seven, seven, six and seven over the most recent four games. Malik Washington firmly moved into the WR2 role with Tyreek Hill injured, earning three, three, five and four targets in his last four appearances.

Cedrick Wilson Jr. is third during this timeframe with two targets in Week 13, while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has a similar snap share to Wilson during this stretch (approximately 25%), getting one target in Week 10.

There is no way to perfume this pig, though be sure to tune into the Stokastic’s NFL Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET tonight, to get all the up-to-date information and strategy advice.

Tight End: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

Greg Dulcich had 13 targets in the most three recent games with Darren Waller injured, but over the last two games when they were together, he had five to Waller’s six, with each getting one red zone opportunity. They are at least salary savers who should have a couple of opportunities tonight as they run the shorter routes that Tagovailoa is allowed to throw.

Julian Hill will be on the field for around half the snaps, and he seemingly lost his targets to Dulcich, who was not playing during Hill’s semi-decent (for a reserve tight end) stretch in October. He missed three games beginning with Week 8, which, along with Waller being out, was the impetus for the team to elevate Dulcich from the practice squad.

Kicker: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

Across four seasons in the NFL, Riley Patterson played 57 games for seven different teams. He has been steady this year for Miami, connecting on all 11 attempts in the 40- to 49-yard range, though he is just 5-for-11 (45.5%) from beyond 50 in his career.

Defense: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

Pittsburgh allowed seven sacks in the last two games, with Seattle getting three and the Jets logging four. Miami is pesky on defense, getting 10 sacks over the last two games, albeit against the Saints and Jets, though the nine multi-sack games are solid. The Dolphins have six interceptions and four fumble recoveries during the current four-game winning streak, while the Steelers are averaging just over one turnover per tilt.

Pittsburgh Steelers NFL DFS Positional Preview

Jaylen Warren

During this period, Gainwell has 16 targets to the seven of Warren, though Warren is ahead in carries 36 to 19 and touchdowns three to one. In the red zone, it is Gainwell 13 and Warren eight, but the duo is separated by one for the full season. Rookie Kaleb Johnson is out of the doghouse again; however, he is left with the scraps in lopsided games, rarely getting anything more than a low-leverage carry or two in the first three quarters.

Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections have Warren for 14.5 carries and 66 yards, Gainwell at 7.4 for 34 and Johnson well behind at 2.9 totes for 12 yards. In the passing game, Gainwell has 4.3 median targets, while Warren has 2.7 potential chances.

Gainwell is the main kickoff returner since Johnson lost that role earlier this season after his gaff against Seattle. Last week Warren pitched in with regular returner Ke’Shawn Williams out due to an injury.

Quarterback: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

Aaron Rodgers is basically on par with Tagovailoa for his subpar statistical production. The future Hall of Famer tallied just four passing touchdowns and one rushing score over the last five games. He at least has volume with 30-plus attempts in six of the last eight games, though he had 161 or fewer passing yards three times, each occurrence coming in the last month.

Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, we can see that Rodgers is -115 for more than 215.5 passing yards, +125 for over 0.5 rushing yards and -155 to throw a touchdown pass.

Rodgers had single-digit fantasy points in three of the last four games, and he had only two with 20-plus fantasy points in his last 11 starts.

Wide Receiver: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

DK Metcalf stayed in Baltimore after last Sunday’s game as stomach pains led him to spend the night in a hospital. He is expected to play tonight, though we will want to monitor the news. It should be no surprise that Metcalf leads the team with 86 targets and all pass-catchers at 14 red zone looks. Since Week 10, the former Seahawk has a whopping 28.4% target share, and Calvin Austin III is the only other wideout cracking double digits (12.1%).

Last Sunday, Metcalf had season highs with 12 targets, seven receptions and 148 yards. The only knock against him is that he had one touchdown in the last six games. Otherwise he is in the mix alongside Warren and Gainwell for the preferred Steelers tonight.

Austin had nine targets in the last three games, with Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek each seeing three. Against Baltimore, there were a couple of wrinkles as Adam Thielen was on the field for 48% of the snaps, trailing only the 83% snap share of Metcalf. Minnesota released Thielen, and Pittsburgh quickly signed him because Rodgers likes veterans.

Good Gawd … is that, is that Marquez Valdes-Scantling‘s music?! What is he doing here?! Yup, MVS was the other wrinkle, getting on the field for 31% of the snaps, and each of these receivers got one target from Rodgers. Valdes-Scantling signed with Seattle over the offseason, but he was among the final roster cuts, getting added to the San Francisco practice squad. He appeared in five of the first six games before suffering an injury and being released with a settlement.

There is no trend to help us out here, but it is reasonable to expect that Wilson or Skowronek could be inactive, with Austin, MVS and Thielen splitting an already weak-volume WR2 role.

Tight End: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

Jonnu Smith gets a “Remember Me?!” game tonight. This is a crowded position with Darnell Washington clearing the concussion protocol and Pat Freiermuth also in the mix. This trio each had moments throughout the season, and over the last three games, Washington had seven targets, and Smith and Freiermuth had six apiece.

The nice thing about facing Miami is that the Dolphins have struggled all season against tight ends, allowing the fourth most fantasy points to the position. Despite having the most targets, Smith has the fewest yards, while his two touchdowns are one more than Washington’s but behind the four of Freiermuth.

Let personal preference and salary consideration be your guide when choosing among this trio. There is also something to be said about having at least one on most lineups tonight.

Kicker: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

Chris Boswell is a tremendous kicker, and he earned his second Pro Bowl nomination last season while also being named First-Team All-Pro. Pittsburgh’s stadium is a tricky place to kick, as is playing in the AFC North. That makes Boswell’s 88.0% success rate on field goals in his 11 seasons VERY impressive.

Defense: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

Pittsburgh is fourth this season with 23 takeaways, while Miami is a little worse than league average at 1.4 turnovers per game, though an embarrassing 14 interceptions from Tagovailoa leads the league. In full transparency, he brought that down to four interceptions over the last six games, but that is also due to his pass attempts and downfield throws being limited. The Steelers are averaging nearly three sacks per game, but they will be without T.J. Watt, which is a massive blow. The Dolphins allow just over two sacks per game.

FULL Player Pool Rankings: Monday Night Football Dolphins-Steelers Week 15 NFL DFS

Top 10

1. De’Von Achane: Top option in all formats.
2. Aaron Rodgers: This ranking says a lot about tonight’s matchup, and it is not positive.
3. DK Metcalf: Consolidates the targets.
4. Kenneth Gainwell: More targets and a $2,000 discount from Warren make him the preferred DraftKings play.
5. Jaylen Warren: Still $1,600 more than Gainwell on FanDuel, but the half-PPR scoring format evens things out.
6. Jaylen Waddle: Has six of the 18 receiving touchdowns for Miami this year. The lack of overall targets for the new-look Miami offense means he will likely need a seventh to be relevant tonight at his current salary.
7. Chris Boswell: Projectable salary saver.
8. Tua Tagovailoa: No rushing upside and sketchy volume against a tough defense.
9. Jonnu Smith, Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth: Each has merit in this matchup.
10. Darren Waller: Playing for a touchdown.

Secondary Targets

1. Riley Patterson: Replacement level; temperatures will be falling through the low 20s.
2. Malik Washington: Salary keeps him below Waller.
3. Pittsburgh DST: Even without Watt, this unit is in play.
4. Jaylen Wright: Had Achane been out, Wright would be ranked ahead of the other Jaylens in the top 10.
5. Miami DST: Pittsburgh is far from a juggernaut offense.

Lottery Tickets

1. Calvin Austin III, Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Close your eyes and pick one. MVS has the better DraftKings salary and played with Rodgers before; Austin returns punts and has the recent history with Rodgers; Thielen frighteningly may actually still be the best of the trio when healthy and in limited action.
2. Greg Dulcich: Borderline core play on DraftKings, where his $1,600 salary and 2 to 3 targets are worth consideration.
3. Ollie Gordon II: Looks to baton back to Wright for the RB2 and red zone role.
4. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: If only Tua still threw deep.
5. Julian Hill, Cedric Wilson Jr., Roman Wilson, Alec Ingold and Ben Skowronek: If active, they will at least be on the field, though this group has a collective 3.1 offensive opportunities in the projections.
6. Kaleb Johnson: Needs a lopsided game to have more than a carry or two.
7. Dee Eskridge, Scotty Miller, Connor Heyward, Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw: A cup of hot cocoa has a better chance at DFS relevance tonight.