Don’t lie, I know you missed me being gone yesterday and not getting your daily NBA parlay picks. For those of you in the OddsShopper Discord, you still got some picks, so I fed your addiction despite being sick and out for the day. Word to the wise, don’t hang around 9-year-olds in the middle of the cold/flu season. I’m gonna feel a hell of a lot better when we cash this +910 NBA parlay today.
Paolo Banchero o17.5 Points & u1.5 Made 3’s (NBA Player Prop)
For the first leg, we’re going after the Banchero over on 17.5 points. This is an alternate line on Bet365, but we have the liberty of toying with some lines since we’re working with a 30% profit boost.
His traditional points prop is set at 23.5 points at most books, so instead of dealing with the BIGGER number, let’s work it in our favor. The OddsShopper projections still have Banchero hitting the over on 23.5 about 45% of the time, so he should have no issue with 17.5 points.
One of the +EV bets showing up on the OddsShopper Prop Tool was the Banchero UNDER on 3-pointers made. It’s got an expected win rate of almost 65%, and Banchero is averaging 1.3 made 3-pointers per game.
Against the Pistons, who we know are ATROCIOUS, I’m not sure he’s going to be needing to jack shots. His game is more of a downhill attack, and with no Jalen Duren in the paint, it could mean more drives to the bucket for Banchero.
There could be significant blowout potential here as well, so, he could even see reduced minutes late. However, if the blowout does happen, he’ll likely still get his points.
Franz Wagner o5.5 Rebounds (NBA Player Prop)
As I mentioned earlier, there will be no Jalen Duren for the Pistons tonight, which means 11 rebounds per game have been taken off the floor.
Thus, that opens up plenty more rebounding opportunities for others who WILL be on the floor. That’s where we’re going with this Franz Wagner prop — over 5.5 rebounds.
The OddsShopper Prop Tool has Wagner hitting the over on 5.5 boards about 54% of the time, and if we look at his recent games, we see some trends we like.
His rebounding numbers have ROCK SOLID over the past six games, grabbing at least 6 rebounds in every game, and having as many as 8. We’re not looking for a huge number here from Wagner, just enough to cash this leg.
Bojan Bogdanovic o13.5 (NBA Player Prop)
This Bojan Bogadanvoic guy … he comes back from injury and just gets buckets.
He scored 22 points in each of the games he’s played in since returning from injury, and had 15 shots in each of those games. So, if we know one thing about the fella, he’s going to get his jacks.
On Bet365, they have a lower point prop option to get an alternate number, and I think we should fire that one up here, as I don’t feel SUPER confident in his traditional point prop of 20.5.
Let’s take the over on 13.5 here and move on for the final leg of this parlay.
Killian Hayes u4.5 Assists (NBA Player Prop)
Real talk, I’m not a Killian Hayes guy. I never have been. I probably never will be.
Hayes has moved into the starting lineup for the last three games, which actually has me liking this under 4.5 assists prop even more. Especially with a guy like Bogdanovic back.
Playing alongside Cade Cunningham and Bogdanovic, they’re going to be dominating the ball a little bit more, so it could take the rock out of Hayes’ hands a bit more than it would if he was working with the second unit.
Orlando is a Top 5 defense in the NBA this season, and Hayes has failed to hit the over on 4.5 assists in seven of his last eight games.
I’m going to short this number tonight.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Paolo Banchero 017.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
Leg 2: Paolo Banchero u1.5 Made 3’s (NBA Player Prop)
Leg 3: Franz Wagner o5.5 Rebounds (NBA Player Prop)
Leg 4: Bojan Bogdanovic o13.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
Leg 5: Killian Hayes u4.5 Assists (NBA Player Prop)
= +910 at Bet365 w/ 30% Boost
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