The NBA’s first Saturday of 2023 has a small slate of four games, but several interesting matchups to break down. The New Orleans Pelicans at the Dallas Mavericks is the most intriguing game of the main slate despite the Pelicans missing the services of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. That game features a high value NBA player prop bet on C.J. McCollum. Wendell Carter’s assist total stands out in the Orlando Magic–Golden State Warriors, as do a couple of NBA player props for Jordan Poole.
Editor’s Note: The New Orleans Pelicans ruled C.J. McCollum out after publication.
For more best NBA bets and player props, check out the OddsShopper betting tool.
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Best NBA Player Props | Jan. 7
Wendell Carter Jr. O/U 2.5 Assists
While Orlando will likely miss the playoffs for a third straight year, the Magic have given their fans plenty to be excited about in the future. The Magic (14-25) have played better over the last month, posting a 9-8 record since December 1. They have a nucleus of young players. Leading ROY candidate Paola Banchero and second-year forward Franz Wagner lead the way, although Carter Jr., Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Bol Bol also appear to be a big part of the team’s rebuild.
Carter is having a solid season, averaging 16.0 points, along with 8.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists. He is still working his way back after missing a little more than a month.
In the five games since returning to action, Carter has totaled 70 points, 35 rebounds, eight assists and eight turnovers. He didn’t hand out a single assist in 30 minutes of action against the Grizzlies on Thursday. He has only doled out more than three helpers once in the past five contests.
Golden State has been much better defensively at home this year. The Warriors are limiting opposing centers to 3.3 assists this year, the eighth fewest in the league, including 3.0 dimes at the Chase Center. Carter was held to 14.0 points and two assists in the team’s earlier meeting in Orlando.
Carter is projected to finish with 1.76 assists tonight. OddsShopper gives the Under a 64% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 5%.
NBA Pick: Wendell Carter Under 2.5 Assists
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Jordan Poole Props O/U 5.5 Assists; O/U 3.5 Rebounds
Poole, known as a scorer, has been doing better at rebounding and setting up his teammates over the past few games. Still, his rebound and assist props seem a little too high. His assist prop is set at O/U 5.5, and his rebound prop is O/U 3.5.
Poole averages 4.2 assists and 2.8 boards in 20 games as a starter this year. He has doled out fewer than six assists in 12 of his last 17 games and grabbed fewer than four boards in seven of his previous 10 appearances.
Poole is projected for 4.8 assists tonight. OddsShopper the under a 58% chance of hitting on the assists total. Similarly, the under on his rebound prop is given a 57% chance of hitting.
NBA Player Prop: Jordan Poole Under 5.5 Assists & Under 3.5 Rebounds
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C.J. McCollum O/U 6.5 Assists
McCollum’s prop total is too high. McCollum is dishing out a career-high 6.0 assists a game, but he has finished under seven assists in each of his last seven appearances. He also has turned the ball over more lately, averaging 3.6 turnovers a game during this stretch, which is 1.0 more turnovers a contest than his season average.
McCollum averages 3.8 assists in 30 career games versus Dallas. He has recorded more than seven assists three times in his career versus the Mavericks. The Mavs are giving up the seven fewest assists to opposing point guards this year at 8.0 a game. OddsShopper gives the under a 54% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 2%.
NBA Player Prop: C.J. McCollum Under 6.5 Assists
