The NBA is back with a loaded card for this Friday evening. The Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls will play on ESPN’s early game at 7:30 p.m. ET, then the Bucks and Timberwolves will get the late slot at 10:00 p.m. Bettors should tail OddsShopper’s expert Celtics-Bulls predictions along with the ones below, including a play for the Bucks-Timberwolves matchup. Those looking for other sharp lines should check out OddsShopper’s tools.
Top NBA Predictions and Picks | November 4
Bucks-Timberwolves Prediction: Bucks -3.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are more than 3.5 points better than the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Bucks rank second in net rating (+11.2) while the Timberwolves rank 11th (+1.3). That the Bucks rank second in net rating without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton should genuinely terrify the association.
While the Bucks haven’t faced the toughest competition this season, they have shown more than enough grit to warrant backing them against the spread. They are an impressive 6-1 against the spread thus far and have covered whenever they’ve been favored by -11.5 or less.
In contrast, the Timberwolves are just 3-5 against the spread and have only covered when favored heavily. They lost and failed to cover in their first game as an underdog, which came against the shorthanded Phoenix Suns. With both Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards questionable due to illnesses, this line could move heavily in Milwaukee’s favor before tip-off, so bettors should place their wagers early. Let’s look at another NBA prediction for this evening.
Bucks-Timberwolves Prediction: Bucks -3.5 (-110 for 1.65 Units) at DraftKings
Warriors-Pelicans Prediction: Jonas Valanciunas O/U 12.5 Points
The New Orleans Pelicans have used center Jonas Valanciunas in an odd manner this season. They have not been afraid to bench the big man if he shoots poorly, which is exactly what they did against the Lakers. And with Brandon Ingram returning to the lineup tonight, Valanciunas could be in for even less run in this spot.
But the books have dropped Valanciunas’ point total all the way down to 12.5, which creates some interesting value. Valanciunas is still averaging 15.6 points per game this year and averaged 17.8 last year. While he is certainly less of a focal point in the offense when Ingram and Zion Williamson play, the number still feels a bit low for such a talented player. Further, Valanciunas finished with 15 and 30 points in the only two games that Williamson and Ingram played to completion.
The matchup should also help Valanciunas get right. The Warriors play at the NBA’s third-fastest pace, thus likely creating a few extra possessions for Valanciunas to exploit. They have also allowed the most points per game to centers (30) by a 3.4-point margin. Golden State has defended the rim well but has still allowed an NBA-high 10 makes per game in the non-restricted area. Valanciunas has excelled in that part of the floor. He ranks third on the Pelicans in attempts per game from there (3.3) and has converted 52.2% of those shots. Let’s look ahead to the final NBA prediction.
Warriors-Pelicans Prediction: Jonas Valanciunas OVER 12.5 Points (-110 for 1.1 Unit) at DraftKings
Warriors-Pelicans Prediction: Brandon Ingram O/U 1.5 Made Threes
Brandon Ingram will return to the lineup tonight for the first time in just under two weeks. The Pelicans looked solid without him but certainly could’ve played better. Ingram had been averaging 28 points, eight rebounds and six assists before he went down against the Jazz in New Orleans’ third game of the year.
Ingram isn’t the world’s best three-point shooter, but he shouldn’t be so heavily in the plus money just to make a pair tonight. He shot 2-for-4 from beyond the arc in the season opener and has made at least one triple in all three of his starts. Although Ingram averaged only 1.3 three-pointers per game last season, Zion Williamson‘s return should draw the defense away from Ingram a bit more often, allowing him to sink more long-range shots.
Further, the Warriors have seriously underperformed against small forwards who can shoot. They have allowed an NBA-high 3.7 made three-pointers per game to the position this year. Jimmy Butler sunk a pair of threes against them earlier this week. Saddiq Bey and Bojan Bogdanovic also combined for seven triples against them on Sunday. Bettors should target this trend and wager enough to profit a half-unit.
Warriors-Pelicans Prediction: Brandon Ingram OVER 1.5 Made Threes (+125 for 0.4 Unit) at DraftKings
