The 6-8 Brooklyn Nets will stay on the West Coast for another road game tonight and this time they’ll face the 6-6 Sacramento Kings. To say the season hasn’t gone as planned for the Nets would be an understatement, but they have at least won four out of their last six games. A glance at the NBA odds reveals the Kings are slight home favorites. Bettors looking for a positive return on this matchup should tail these Nets-Kings picks and predictions — or check out OddShopper’s tools for other smart plays.
NBA Odds: Nets-Kings Odds
Nets Improving But Struggling With Perimeter Defense
The Brooklyn Nets have played better than their record suggests -- at least lately. They rank a solid 13th in net rating (+1.5). Their offense ranks a respectable 15th (112.1) and their defense a solid 13th (110.5). The Nets have shot the ball well as a team, as they rank 10th in effective field-goal percentage (54.3%), but they have struggled on the glass, as they rank 29th in team rebound rate (47.1%).
The Nets won't have Kyrie Irving tonight and Ben Simmons is questionable with a knee injury. Their absences may actually benefit Brooklyn. The Nets are 7.9 points more efficient when Irving sits and 16.1 points more efficient when Simmons sits. That said, the Nets have rebounded worse when those players sit. Simmons alone accounts for a 5.1% drop in team rebound rate when off the floor and he ranks third on the roster in rebound rate (12.9%).
Although the Nets are improving, the formula for beating them remains simple: perimeter shooting and effective rebounding. The Nets have given up the third-most 3-point shots from above the break per game (9.9) and rank second-worst in opponent shooting percentage from that part of the floor (38.6%). Shooting guards have done most of that damage, as the Nets have allowed the second-most made triples per game to the position (4.17).
Brooklyn's struggles on the glass have had consequences on the scoreboard. The Nets rank a lowly fifth-worst in second-chance points per game (11.4) and rank seventh-worst in second-chance points allowed (15.2). They have allowed the second-most rebounds per game to point guards (7.5) and the fourth-most to centers (17.2).
Kings Shooting Well But Not Defending the Paint
The Sacramento Kings are well in the race for the play-in tournament. They rank a solid 16th in net rating (+0.1) behind their sixth-ranked offense (114.4). However, their defense leaves much to be desired, as the unit ranks 27th (114.3). Sacramento's solid offensive play stems from efficient shooting, as the team ranks third in effective field-goal percentage (56.6%). Like the Nets, the Kings have also struggled on the glass, as they rank 23rd in team rebound rate (48.9%).
The Kings have avoided the injury bug this far and are at full strength for this evening's contest. Their starting lineup has looked solid aside from Harrison Barnes, who the Kings are 4.3 points more efficient without. The Kings are also 17.4 points less efficient when backup center Richaun Holmes takes the floor, but he has since fallen out of the rotation.
Like the Nets, the Kings have a glaring defensive weakness: the paint. They give up the third-most points in the paint per game (55) and have allowed a whopping 19.5 made shots per game from inside the restricted area, which ranks sixth-worst in the association. They lack a true rim protector on defense and rank 29th in total team blocks per game (3.4). Despite their poor rim protection, the Kings have allowed the 12th-fewest points per game to centers (21.5) -- slashing guards and wings have done most of the damage on the interior.
Although Domantas Sabonis has struggled to defend the rim, he has been effective on the glass. He leads the team in rebound rate (20.8%) and has averaged 11.3 rebounds per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA.
Final Nets-Kings Prediction & Pick
Tonight's matchup is the perfect spot to target two players: Kevin Huerter and De'Aaron Fox. First, Brooklyn's poor perimeter defense should allow Huerter to sink plenty of shots from the top of the key. He averages a team-high 6.2 attempted above-the-break 3's per game and 3.8 made 3's per game. Bettors should target his 3-point props with a ladder play.
Next, the Nets have struggled against opposing point guards both on the glass and as passers. Point guards have averaged 16.6 rebounds and assists per game against the Nets this year. With Fox averaging 11.1 rebounds and assists per game, backing him to get at least 11 at near-even odds feels sharp.
Final Nets-Kings Picks
De'Aaron Fox Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-106 for 1.06 Units) at FanDuel
Kevin Huerter Over 2.5 Made 3's (-129) at Caesars
Kevin Huerter 4+ Made 3's (+200 for 0.5 Units) at FanDuel
Kevin Huerter 5+ Made 3's (+490 for 0.25 Units) at FanDuel
