NFL Sunday Night Football: Vikings at Cowboys (Week 15)

Sunday Night Football brings us a Vikings-Cowboys matchup that carries real DFS intrigue, even with both teams fading from the playoff picture. In this NFL DFS showdown, Dallas enters at 6-6-1 with only a narrow path forward, while Minnesota sits at 5-8 and faces virtual elimination if it loses another game. From a fantasy perspective, this game still offers opportunity, especially with the Cowboys continuing to allow production in key DFS positions. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks, we break down Vikings-Cowboys DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, focusing on SNF DFS picks, projected ownership and player projections that matter most in NFL DFS contests and NFL DFS showdown formats.

NFL DFS Picks: Vikings-Cowboys SNF DFS Showdown

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5 / 47.5)

Minnesota Vikings Positional Preview

Justin Jefferson

Though 90 games, Jefferson has the all-time receiving yards per game record at 91.6, which slid significantly from his 96.5 yards per game to start the season. He is coming off the two worst statistical performances of his career, seeing six targets for two receptions and 2 yards against the Seattle Seahawks, which is understandable. The crazy part was last week when Minnesota had three passing touchdowns on Sunday against the Washington Commanders, with Jefferson being targeted only four times for two receptions and 11 yards.

The Dallas passing defense is even worse than the Commanders’, giving up a league-high 255.2 passing yards per game, sitting atop the touchdowns surrendered category at 29, tied with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Cowboys also allow opposing signal-callers to post a 109.1 quarterback rating, trailing only the 109.6 Washington cedes.

Ten different wideouts tallied at least 89 receiving yards against the Cowboys this season, and five recorded multi-touchdown games. Surprisingly, even with the salary savings, Jefferson is projecting to be on just over 33% of all Sunday Night Football rosters on DraftKings. By comparison, he is projected for a 25% rostership rate on FanDuel.

In the last five healthy games for rookie J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson had a team-leading 40 targets, followed by Jordan Addison (30), Aaron Jones Sr. (19), T.J. Hockenson (18) and Jalen Nailor (15). Most of this workload came in Week 9 through Week 11, though it is fair to include these games since the Dallas defense is so generous from a fantasy perspective, giving up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

From an on-field standpoint, Jefferson and Addison will likely push for a low-90% play participation rate, with Nailor around 50% to 60%, and Tai Felton and Myles Price potentially popping up on the screen. Keep in mind that Adam Thielen was released and is now with Pittsburgh, though it is his limited snaps that have been going to Felton and Price.

The Dallas defense should have edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney (hamstring) tonight, but defensive back Trevon Diggs (knee) was limited in practice all week as he looks to return from the injured reserve. That means DaRon Bland and Caelen Carson will be tasked with slowing down Jefferson, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects.

Quarterback: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15

Minnesota has a 3-4 record with McCarthy at the helm, though one of the wins was the lucky Week 1 Monday Night Football comeback in Chicago, a 27-24 victory that he secured thanks to a near-perfect fourth quarter performance. In a WTF moment, that actually earned McCarthy Offensive Player of the Week on a weak 13-for-20 (65.0%), 143 yards and two touchdowns through the air, with two carries for 25 yards and another touchdown.

On Sunday, the former Michigan field general was 16-for-23 (69.6%) with 163 yards and three touchdowns, picking up 19 more yards on six rushing attempts. In between those bookends, McCarthy made five starts, averaging 157.2 passing yards and recording four touchdowns against nine interceptions.

We know it is not the coaching staff or offensive system, which coaxed Sam Darnold into a phenomenal resurgence last year, and in his five starts, Carson Wentz had a pair of 300-yard games. Four of his five yardage totals were better than McCarthy’s second-best total.

Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, we can see that McCarthy is -113 for more than 191.5 passing yards, -109 for over 18.5 rushing yards and -103 to throw a touchdown pass.

The rushing floor is helpful, as is a matchup against the Cowboys, so let your heart be your guide for how much McCarthy your player portfolio can handle.

Running Back: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

The Vikings would prefer something along the lines of a 65/35 split between Jones and Jordan Mason. Unfortunately the oft-injured veteran is barely able to crest over at 50% snap share most games. Fortunately, he is the clear option for any high-leverage opportunities, though there have not been many over the last month.

In the last four games, Jones is averaging 11.3 carries for 47.5 rushing yards, plus 3.8 targets for 2.5 receptions and 12.3 yards with no touchdowns. For the season he has one rushing and one receiving score, missing four of the 13 games due to injuries.

Mason did have four rushing touchdowns and three games with 57-plus rushing yards when Jones was sidelined, and he had two touchdowns in the last four games, averaging of 46.5 yards during this stretch. Sadly, he is a zero in the passing game, seeing just four targets in his last nine appearances.

The Stokastic NFL projections have Mason for half a target, with Jones earmarked for 3.3, 2.7 receptions and 20 yards. Mason has a median outcome of 10.1 carries for 48.2 yards and a 30% probability of reaching pay dirt. Jones is at 12.3 carries for 59.1 yards, and he has a slightly higher chance to score.

Be sure to tune into the Stokastic’s NFL Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET tonight, to get all the up-to-date information and analysis.

Tight End: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

Tight ends typically benefit from rookies or inexperienced quarterbacks, though Josh Oliver getting two targets last week for 24 yards and two touchdowns was out of the blue. Hockenson also had two receptions for 12 yards and a touchdown, and while he is three years removed from his last Pro Bowl appearance, he is still well above average for his position.

Seven of the 15 passing touchdowns this season were to Oliver (4) or Hockenson (3), which is a far cry from five of the 35 touchdowns last year.

Kicker: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

Will Reichard has been outstanding this season, converting on 91.7% of his field goal attempts, including 8-for-10 (80%) from 50-plus yards. In his rookie campaign he had an 80.0% success rate on his field goals attempts, and he was also stellar from beyond 50 yards, going 8-for-11 (88.9%). The former Alabama stalwart has not missed an extra-point attempt at the NFL level.

Defense: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

The Vikings have been in the middle of the pack with 2.5 sacks per game and a little below average with 1.1 takeaways per tilt. Dallas is seventh at 1.4 turnovers per game, though despite shaky offensive line play, the Cowboys allow a reasonable 1.7 sacks per game, which is actually impressive when considering the team has attempted the second-most passes in the league (493), trailing only the Arizona Cardinals (509).

Dallas Cowboys NFL DFS Positional Preview

CeeDee Lamb

Dallas and everyone tuned into the game got to watch George Pickens become very disinterested in playing, showing some of the underlying issues that saw him get his ticket out of Pittsburgh. Mercurial wide receivers are nothing new, but this petulance on the national stage likely cost him several million dollars as he heads into free agency this offseason.

It is hard to know what annoyed Pickens, especially considering that he had 42 targets in the four games since the Week 10 bye, and Lamb had 35 in that stretch. Pickens scored in each of the four games earlier this season without Lamb, totaling five touchdowns while averaging 8.8 targets for 6.0 catches and 106.8 yards.

Both wideouts are core plays, with Lamb holding the advantage for only $200 more on DraftKings and Pickens getting a slight nod on FanDuel with a $1,000 savings.

Ryan Flournoy had three touchdowns in the last five games, though the bulk of his targets came on Thursday after Lamb was knocked out of the game. The 13 looks for nine receptions, 115 yards and a touchdown are more than double the seven targets, six receptions and 48 yards from the preceding four games. Tread lightly as this is shaping up to be a trap.

KaVontae Turpin has a similar snap share to Flournoy since the bye, and it is fair to call the WR3 role an even split between them. Turpin also handles kickoff and punt returns, having been named First-Team All-NFL last year and to the Pro Bowl in two of his three seasons, including as a rookie. He had two targets in each of the last four games, which is around what we should also expect from Flournoy. Turpin is $1,600 cheaper on DraftKings, though he has a $1,000 premium over Flournoy on FanDuel.

Over the last five games, Jalen Tolbert and Jonathan Mingo each have one target, with Tolbert getting 14 of his 25 on the season when Lamb was out.

Quarterback: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

Minnesota did not allow a passing touchdown in the last four games, and it has been five since a quarterback topped 200 passing yards. The last real test the defense had was on the road against Jared Goff, who was 25-for-37 (67.5%) with 284 yards and two touchdowns.

Dak Prescott is having a strong season, leading the league in completions, attempts, passing yards, first downs and QBR. The only knock against him for DFS purposes is that he rarely runs, despite being mobile in the pocket and able to extend plays. This is a must-win game, and it would not be a surprise to see Prescott scamper a couple times if the defense loses containment. Minnesota is one of the most blitz-happy teams in the league, so expect Prescott to be under pressure from the jump.

Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, we can see that Prescott is -113 for more than 259.5 passing yards, -104 for over 9.5 rushing yards and -200 to throw two or more touchdown passes.

Running Back: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

And then there was one. Javonte Williams absolutely dominates the Dallas backfield, with H-Back Hunter Luepke seeing a 25% snap share, mostly on passing plays. Rookie Malik Davis gets 10 or so plays per game when Williams is on the sidelines.

Miles Sanders has been out of the picture since Week 4, and fifth-round rookie Jaydon Blue frittered away his midseason chance, being outplayed by Davis both in games and practice.

Williams already cracked the 1,000-yard milestone, and while he surprisingly is averaging only 3.9 yards per reception, he does have 46 targets and 33 catches, accompanied by two touchdowns. He projects to be the third-most rostered player on FanDuel ($9,800, 44.9%), and he is essentially tied with McCarthy on DraftKings ($9,400, 39.6%).

The Stokastic NFL projections have Williams for 17.4 carries and 80.3 yards, with Davis getting 3.1 for 14.6. Williams is likely to see 2.6 targets, 2.1 receptions and 12.9 yards, and Luepke is in the mix for a target or two and 10 yards.

Tight End: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

Jake Ferguson continues chugging along, and two of his three best yardage totals occurred in the last trio of tilts, though he was held out of the end zone in each game. We know Prescott trusts him, and he could see an uptick in targets, leaking out after an initial block against the charging front seven of the Vikings.

Since the Week 10 bye, Luke Schoonmaker has four targets, and Brevyn Spann-Ford got three. Ferguson has the clear edge with 24 opportunities in these games, but his position mates are very much in play, especially Spann-Ford, who is at the DraftKings $200 minimum. In the last three games, Schoonmaker (23.3 snaps) averaged only a handful more offensive plays than Spann-Ford (18.8), which is a factor in Schoonmaker having the higher DraftKings ($1,600) salary. Neither are particularly appealing on FanDuel.

Kicker: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

Brandon Aubrey had a winding path to the NFL, but the 30-year-old is the gold standard for kickers. He was bestowed Pro Bowl accolades in each of his first two seasons, with First-Team All-Pro honors in his rookie year and Second-Team acknowledgement last year. For his career he has a 90.4% success rate, including 33-for-38 (86.7%) successful tries from beyond 50 yards. The cherry on top was in Thursday’s loss in Detroit, where he became the first NFL kicker to ever convert three field goals of 50-plus yards in the same game. Enjoy!

Defense: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

Dallas recorded 14 sacks in the last five games, though the Cowboys have the fourth-fewest takeaways with 10 on the season. McCarthy should be good for a handful of combined sacks and turnovers, making this unit a viable click tonight.

FULL Player Pool Rankings: Sunday Night Football Vikings-Cowboys Week 15 NFL DFS

Top 10

1. CeeDee Lamb: Top option in all formats.
2. Javonte Williams: 11 combined touchdowns and is the epitome of a “PPR Scammer.”
3. George Pickens: Too much on the line for another pout session.
4. Justin Jefferson: If only McCarthy had more touch on his passes, Jefferson would be second on this list.
5. Dak Prescott: Will be a true test of his abilities against a fierce pass rush.
6. J.J. McCarthy: Matchup and rushing floor are sooooo intriguing at his current salary.
7. Brandon Aubrey: Kicker fish unite!
8. Will Reichard: Ibid.
9. Jordan Addison: Seems to have a better connection with McCarthy than Jefferson, which is wild.
10. Aaron Jones Sr.: Volume is flagging, but he at least has priority over Mason.

Secondary Targets

1. Jake Ferguson: Dealing with a sore calf, though expected to play.
2. Dallas DST: Probability of a scoop-and-score, pick-6 or other return touchdown offsets getting dinged for points allowed.
3. T.J. Hockenson: Meh.
4. Jordan Mason: Double-Meh.
5. KaVontae Turpin: Team does try to scheme a couple plays for him each game.

Lottery Tickets

1. Ryan Flournoy: Usually works out of the slot when Lamb is off the field.
2. Minnesota DST: Prescott is a savvy veteran.
3. Jalen Nailor and Josh Oliver: Volume is thin, though each has touchdown equity — deep for Nailor and red zone for Oliver.
4. Malik Davis and Hunter Luepke: Davis has very little passing role, Luepke is only $400 on DraftKings, making it easier to find his way into a winning lineup with two catches.
5. Brevyn Spann-Ford and C.J. Ham: Both are $200 on DraftKings. Spann-Ford is live for a target, though Ham is a stretch, having just one this season, serving mostly as a lead blocker.
6. Myles Price: Lead punt and kickoff returner for the Vikings; rookie UDFA with three offensive snaps last week and one in the prior game, his first since Week 3.
7. Tai Felton, Zavier Scott, Jonathan Mingo, Ben Sims, Troy Aikman and Hershel Walker: Avoid eye contact.