Northwestern football finished the 2022 season with a 1-11 record. The Wildcats only win came against Nebraska by a score of 31-28 in the season opener. For what it’s worth, did lose another six games by single digits, indicating the team might not have been as bad as their record suggested. In this post, we’ll be providing our 2023 Northwestern football predictions in our season preview.
FanDuel Sportsbook puts the Northwestern win total at 2.5 with the over juiced to -138. Northwestern also sits at +30000 to win the Big Ten, which is tied for last with Indiana. With that said, let’s dive into our 2023 Northwestern football season preview.
2023 Northwestern Football Predictions & Season Preview
2023 Northwestern Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff
After a hazing scandal erupted out of Northwestern, the Wildcats fired longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The program subsequently promoted defensive coordinator David Braun to interim head coach.
Braun was only hired to coordinate the defense this season after previously acting as North Dakota State’s defensive coordinator from 2019-2022. On offense, the team retains Mike Bajakian as offensive coordinator. He has been in place since 2020. Ultimately, this coaching staff has a ton of questions following the hazing scandal this summer.
2023 Northwestern Football Season Preview: Offense
Quarterback
Some may view this quarterback room as deep. What they actually have is three mediocre signal callers highlighted by Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant. Bryant stands 6-3, 220 pounds with no mobility. He completed 214 of 350 passes (61.1%) for 2,744 yards (7.8 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He was the fifth highest graded QB in the AAC, per ProFootballFocus, but he comes with severe limitations. Negative criticism aside, he is the best option on the Northwestern roster.
Northwestern also returns the services of Brendan Sullivan at quarterback. The Wildcats were a revolving door at QB last year, but Sullivan completed 71 of 96 passes (74%) for 589 yards (6.1 YPA), four touchdowns, and three interceptions. He also rushed 54 times for 97 yards. Sullivan is 6-3, 212 pounds and enters his third year with the program. He was the 13th highest graded quarterback in the Big Ten last year. Overall, Sullivan was the #694 recruit in 2021, so he has a decent pedigree as far as Northwestern quarterbacks go.
The team also retains the services of Ryan Hilinski.. Hilinski is 6-3, 225 pounds and completed 144 of 259 attempts (55.6%) for 1,648 yards (6.4 YPA), six touchdowns, and seven interceptions last year. Needless to say, this quarterback room might be the worst in the Big Ten.
Running Back
At running back, Northwestern lost Evan Hull to the NFL this offseason, but Cam Porter returns. Porter stands 5-10, 220 pounds and rushed for 284 yards on 87 carries last year. He also caught seven passes for another 50 yards. Porter averaged just 2.32 yards after contact and a missed tackle on 16.1% of his attempts. These were some of the worst efficiency metrics in the entire conference.
It looks like Anthony Tyus II will back up Porter this season after rushing for 56 yards on 19 carries last year. Tyus did catch five balls, but he remains unproven. He stands 6-1, 225 pounds, giving him the size to handle a full workload if needed. Joseph Himon II is another name to watch here. He only carried the ball four times last year, but he was a decent three star recruit for this program. Overall, Himon was the 651st ranked player in 2022. With Hull gone, this position group has serious questions.
Wide Receiver
Northwestern lost their top three pass catchers in Malik Washington, Evan Hull, and Donny Navarro this offseason. This team hasn’t been able to retain receiver talent either in recent years either. An example of this is 2021 four-star recruit Jordan Mosley transferring to Mississippi State.
Their leading returner is Bryce Kirtz. Kirtz battled injury last year, but he stands 6-0, 180 pounds and caught 19 of 31 targets for 212 yards. He played outside 92.4% of the time and recorded 0.97 yards per route, which ranked 58th in the Big Ten. From there, the team added former Vanderbilt and Arizona State transfer Cam Johnson. Johnson stands 6-0, 205 pounds. He failed to crack the Arizona State rotation with 10 catches for 84 yards last year. His best season came in 2020, where he caught 56 balls for 545 yards. Johnson has only produced at bad schools, which Northwestern fits the mold.
They also added Michigan transfer AJ Henning. Henning caught nine balls for 60 yards last year, but he initially came to Michigan as a four-star recruit in the 2020 cycle. He will definitely receiver more snaps here. The final starter could also be Preston Bacon, who has received praise this spring. He is 6-2, 195 and enters his third season with the program.
This isn’t really a good sign for the program. 2022 four-star recruit Reggie Fleurima failed to crack the rotation last year and doesn’t look likely to do so here. Another candidate for the final starting position is Jacob Gill, who has also received praise so far this year. Gill is 6-0, 190 pounds and caught eight balls for 101 yards last year. He enters his third season with the program as well. With the transfers, this unit may actually improve, but only time will tell.
Tight End
Northwestern returns all four of their top tight ends in Marshall Lang, Thomas Gordon, Charlie Mangieri and Duke Olges. Lang stands 6-4, 235 pounds and blocked on 51% of his 518 snaps. As a pass catcher, he caught 15 of 27 balls for 192 yards. This equated to 0.79 yards per route on a 47.1% slot rate. Gordon stands 6-4, 240 pounds and blocked on 50% of his 354 snaps. As a receiver, he caught 12 of 21 targets for 162 yards. This equated to 0.97 yards per route on a 41% slot rate. Mangieri dealt with injuries last year, but he previously played 497 snaps in 2021.
Mangieri stands 6-4, 255 pounds and blocked on 65% of his snaps that year. Mangieri has never been an elite receiver, maxing out at nine receptions in 2021. Finally, Ogles stands 6-4, 260 pounds and blocked on 79% of his 194 snaps last year. This is probably the deepest position on the entire Northwestern offense.
Offensive Line
On the offensive line, Northwestern lost Charlie Schmidt, Peter Skoronski, Ethan Wiederkehr, and Vincent Picozzi. The lone returning starter is right tackle Caleb Tiernan after playing 510 snaps last year. Injuries allowed left guard Josh Priebe to play 485 snaps, which gives Northwestern two solid bodies. Tiernan may get moved to left tackle, so the favorite to start opposite him should be Zachary Franks.
Franks only played 28 snaps last year, but he enters his fifth year in college. Ben Wrather is a favorite for an interior spot after bouncing between guard and center last year. He played 89 snaps, but 61 of those came at right guard against Illinois. The other main candidate for an interior starting spot looks like Dom D’Antonio, who played 35 snaps last year. If they move anyone around in this group, Nick Herzog could see an increased role. Herzog played four snaps as a high, three-star freshman last year. Without serious development, this position has major questions and downside this year.
2023 Northwestern Football Season Preview: Defense
Northwestern ranked 124th on defense in 2022. This included the 113th-ranked run defense, 97th-ranked pass rush and 126th-ranked secondary. This defense lost a star edge in Adetomiwa Adebawore, along with multiple starters in the secondary. Making matters worse, their top recruit and only four-star exited the program following the hazing scandal and Fitzgerald firing.
Defensive Line
Mentioned above, Northwestern lost premier edge Adebawore this offseason. They do return some decent production here with the return of Aidan Hubbard and Sean McLaughlin. The pair played 328 and 602 snaps last year. Neither posted particularly impressive numbers. McLaughlin logged 30 tackles and four tackles for loss.
Meanwhile, Hubbard logged 17 tackles, one tackle for loss, and one sack on his rotational role. The team did add Southern Illinois transfer Richie Hagarty, who finished first team All-MVFC last year. Hagarty originally began his career with Miami Ohio, so he isn’t the lowest level talent on the roster.
On the interior, Northwestern lost Devin O’Rourke after 548 snaps last year. They do return Najee Story, who played 263 snaps last year. Story had some atrocious run defense statistics, but he finished the year with 25 tackles, two tackles for loss, and one sack. From here, Northwestern projects to rely on a pair of transfers in Matt Lawson (Fresno State) and Reginald Pearson (Bethune Cookman).
Lawson only played 147 snaps last year, which doesn’t exactly bode well for him moving to the Big Ten. Pearson comes over from Bethune Cookman, where he played in just three games last year. However, he started them all and played well in his limited game action. From here, Northwestern does have some interesting depth players like Carmine Bastone, but this group lacks proven talent across the defensive line.
Linebacker
At linebacker, Northwestern lost their top four-star recruit Nigel Glover, but they do return some starting production here. Xander Mueller and Bryce Gallagher return as the full time backers after 809 and 744 snaps last year. Gallagher led the team with 100 tackles last year, while adding five tackles for loss. He struggled in pass coverage, but proved a reliable piece against the run.
Mueller finished second on the team with 87 tackles and led the team with 10.5 tackles for loss. He also struggled against the pass and a little more against the run as well. Northwestern also returns their third linebacker Grayson Metz after 370 snaps last year. Metz proved their most reliable backer, despite his limited role. He logged 41 tackles and played well against the pass. Mac Uihlein also returns after 65 snaps in five games last year. Overall, this is the deepest position on the Northwestern defense.
Defensive Back
At corner, Northwestern lost Cameron Mitchell and AJ Hampton, who were two of the better starters from this defense. They do return a full time starter at corner with Rod Heard II returning. He played 745 snaps, finishing with 67 tackles, two pass breakups and one interception.
They also return a pair of rotational corners in Theran Johnson and Garnett Hollis Jr., who played 247 and 332 snaps apiece. Both of them broke up three passes last year with average coverage numbers. There isn’t much depth at this position, so Northwestern will rely on a step forward from all three this year.
At safety, Northwestern lost Jeremiah Lewis this summer after the hazing scandal. He leaves behind 70 tackles and four pass breakups. They do return Coco Azema, who played 140 snaps last year. Azema only played in two games last year, but he started in 2021 and played 713 snaps that year.
The other projected starter looks like Devin Turner, who played 268 snaps last year. Turner played relatively well with 32 tackles last year, but he should be a step down from Lewis. The other projected player in the two-deep is Garner Wallace, who played just 72 snaps last year. Like corner, the departure of Lewis leaves this position more vulnerable ahead of the 2023 season.
2023 Northwestern Football Predictions & Schedule
2023 Northwestern Football Schedule
The Wildcats play a non-conference schedule consisting of UTEP, Duke, and Howard. They will be clear underdogs against Duke, but the other two games are winnable. In the Big Ten, they crossover against Rutgers, Penn State, and Maryland from the East. Overall, they should be underdogs in every single Big Ten game this season.
2023 Northwestern Football Futures Bet & Prediction
The Wildcats over/under 2.5 wins is juiced to -138 towards the over. Despite playing a reasonable non-conference schedule, Northwestern will have their work cut out for them in the Big Ten. With very low expectations, this team will need chaos in the Big Ten West to eclipse this win total. For that reason, under 2.5 wins at +112 makes the most sense here
Best Northwestern Football Futures Bet: Under 2.5 Wins (+112 at FanDuel)
You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!
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