With no NFL action in store, the college football betting markets will dominate the weekend. Action gets underway on Thursday night with a handful of high-profile games—and a few mismatches. The FCS Cal Poly Mustangs’ road game against the FBS Fresno State Bulldogs is one such matchup. Anyone making a prediction for Cal Poly vs. Fresno State should be backing the FBS team.
But by how many points? The Bulldogs lost their head coach in the offseason. However, they’ll return their starting quarterback. Furthermore, the Mustangs haven’t played well in years, and their team is still trying to transition out of a triple-option scheme. Don’t expect a close game in Fresno on Thursday night.
Cal Poly vs. Fresno State Week 1 College Football Picks
Cal Poly vs. Fresno State Betting Odds
Jeff Tedford Looking to Impress in Return to Fresno
Head coach Jeff Tedford left Fresno State after the 2019 season for health reasons. The team hired Kalen DeBoer to replace him, but now DeBoer is off to Washington after leading the Bulldogs to a 9-3 season and a win in the New Mexico Bowl. Tedford has one Mountain West title and two bowl wins under his belt, and the Bulldogs should remain conference contenders under his leadership.
Tedford gets to keep starting quarterback Jake Haener. Haener threw for 4,096 yards, 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season, and he added another three touchdowns on the ground. Haener is already drawing NFL draft buzz. Tedford also gets to keep the team's two leading receivers from last year, Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly. Safety Evan Williams and linebacker Malachi Langley, the team's leading tacklers, will also return.
The Bulldogs took care of business in non-conference play last year. Fresno State racked up 45 points in a shut-out win over UConn and beat Cal Poly by 53. They lost to then-No. 11 Oregon by just one score and beat then-No. 13 UCLA by a field goal. With most of the offense from last year still in place -- and former wide receivers coach Kirby Moore taking the controls as offensive coordinator -- Tedford should have no problem easing back into the job.
Cal Poly: Big Sky Bottom Dwellers
The Cal Poly Mustangs remain in transition. A 3-8 record in 2019 led to long-tenured head coach Tim Walsh's retirement. His triple-option offense went with him. Beau Baldwin took over the reins afterward, and his spread passing attack has taken some time to implement, especially because of personnel problems.
Baldwin enters Year 3 with an unimpressive 2-12 career record. He has beaten just one conference opponent thus far. Cal Poly racked up just 274 total yards and 10 points in last year's matchup against Fresno State. The Mustangs may eventually find a way to get Baldwin's offense up and running, but a tough opening matchup against an FBS opponent probably won't lead to the best results.
Cal Poly vs. Fresno State Prediction
Another blowout win for Fresno State seems likely. Even though the team will have a new coach, he is as familiar with the program as any new coach could be. He'll also benefit significantly from the returns of both Haener and wide receivers coach Kirby Moore. This Fresno State team should look almost identical to the one from last season. And since that Fresno State team dismantled Cal Poly by a 53-point margin on the road, things could get ugly in Fresno on Thursday night.
Few books are taking action on this game. As of Wednesday afternoon, SugarHouse and BetRivers were the only two with available lines. Both have the Bulldogs as 39.5-point favorites. While those are a ton of points to willingly lay, this Fresno State team is not 13 points worse than last year's group. Cal Poly has provided no reason to believe that they're 13 points better either. Bettors bold enough to wager on this game should back Fresno State against the spread.
Best NCAAF Bet: Fresno State -39.5 (-106) | Buy to -41.5
