The No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels have taken the SEC by storm and remain the conference’s fourth top-1o program after a high-scoring win over Auburn. This week, they’ll face an LSU team hot off a win over Florida in the Swamp. The unranked Tigers earned 87 votes last week as well, which makes them just the second team out. LSU is favored, according to the college football odds. Bettors should head to DraftKings Sportsbook to tail the following Ole Miss-LSU odds and prediction. They should also compare some bets using our OddsShopper tool.
College Football Odds: Ole Miss-LSU Odds
Ole Miss' Offense Looking Electric
Lane Kiffin's offense has been firing on all cylinders. Ole Miss scored a whopping 48 points against Auburn and 52 against Vanderbilt just a week before. That said, the Rebels needed just about all of those points -- they gave up 34 to Auburn and 28 to Vanderbilt. Ole Miss even trailed Vanderbilt heading into halftime two weeks ago. Let's dive deeper with our Ole Miss-LSU prediction.
Kiffin has built an elite, balanced offense in Oxford. The unit ranks fifth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and 13th in yards per play (6.7). The rushing offense ranks eighth in yards per attempt (5.7), while the passing offense ranks 15th (8.8). Running backs Quishon Judkins and Zach Evans have split carries for a total of 1,325 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Jaxson Dart has completed 61.3% of his passes for 1,488 yards and 11 touchdowns. That said, he ranks only 43rd in passing efficiency and has thrown six interceptions. The Rebels rank 69th in giveaways per game (1.5). Ole Miss has had enough firepower to make up for Dart's mistakes, but the school is yet to face a ranked opponent on the road.
The defense has been good enough for Ole Miss to not lose games, but it hasn't looked great against SEC opponents. The unit ranks 32nd in the FEI and 26th in yards allowed per play (4.9). While the Rebels have surrendered only 19.7 points per game this year, which ranks 18th, they have surrendered 27 points per game over their last three contests, all of which came against SEC teams. Ole Miss ranks just 65th in points allowed through that stretch. Missing star defensive end Cedric Johnson hurt the Rebels against Auburn last week, and it remains to be seen when he'll return.
LSU's Offense Starting to Emerge
Brian Kelly's first year in the SEC probably hasn't gone how the head coach expected it to. LSU started the season with a loss to the ACC's FSU, but the Tigers then beat a now-ranked Mississippi State team in Death Valley. They next narrowly beat Auburn after a 17-point comeback but lost to Tennessee the next week. That said, Kelly may have righted the ship with a 10-point road win over Florida last weekend. LSU's defense held Florida to only 185 yards while the offense gained 7.4 yards per play, much better than its 63rd-ranked season average of 5.6.
The Tigers may have finally found something on offense. Quarterback Jayden Daniels impressed by completing 71.8% of his passes for 349 yards and three scores. He added another 44 yards and three scores on the ground. Still, he ranks only 53rd in passing efficiency on the year, and LSU's offense ranks just 72nd in yards per pass attempt (7.3). The Tigers have been faring a bit better on the ground, as their rushing attack ranks 47th in yards per attempt (4.4). LSU will need to string consecutive good games together, but facing a vulnerable defense at home could allow them to do so.
The defense hasn't lived up to Brian Kelly's standards. Kelly hasn't had a defense finish 25th or worse in the FEI since 2016, but the Tigers currently rank 31st in the index. The unit ranks 54th in yards allowed per play (5.4) and has allowed 6.3 over the last three games. LSU's opponents have succeeded on 41.7% of their third-down conversion attempts, which ranks 80th. A date with one of the SEC's premier offenses could spell doom for the Tigers even though they'll enjoy home-field advantage.
Final Ole Miss-LSU Prediction & Pick
This week's matchup is difficult to handicap. LSU's win over Florida and Tennessee's win over Alabama last week put the pair's Week 6 meeting in perspective, so it feels square to immediately fade LSU here. That's what a large amount of the public has done, with Ole Miss drawing tons of action on the moneyline. That said, public books like DraftKings and FanDuel still favor LSU by between -1.5 and -2, while sharper books like Pinnacle have the Tigers at -3.
Bettors should pivot to a smart first-half play instead. Ole Miss ranks fifth in points per first half (23.5) but LSU ranks a miserable 75th (12.7). Ole Miss ranks a respectable 41st in points allowed per first half (11.5) while LSU ranks 64th (13.5). Pinnacle, where the spread is -3, still has the first-half line at -0.5. But bettors can find Ole Miss +1.5 on DraftKings, and that play offers the best return on the market.
Final Ole Miss-LSU Pick: Ole Miss First Half +1.5 (-110) at DraftKings
