The Ohio State Buckeyes welcome the Iowa Hawkeyes to Ohio Stadium for a noon ET kickoff Saturday. Let’s take a look at the Iowa – Ohio State odds and expert prediction. For the best odds, be sure to check our OddsShopper tool.
The Buckeyes sit No. 2 in the AP Poll and are the clear favorite to win the Big Ten, especially with their matchup later in the season against Michigan at home. Ohio State is a perfect 6-0. Much has been made it its schedule, but the Buckeyes played a top-25 team, Notre Dame, to start the season before the Fighting Irish’s struggles set in. They also beat Michigan State, Rutgers and Wisconsin all by at least 25 points. The only game for Ohio State that has ended within three scores was against Notre Dame, a 21-10 victory.
As for Iowa, it opened the season with a win over South Dakota State, a top FCS side. It has also beaten Rutgers and Nevada, losing to Illinois and Iowa State by a field goal and also losing at home to Michigan 27-14. Iowa struggles offensively, but it hasn’t allowed over 30 in a game this season and has actually held 5 of its 6 opponents to 10 points or less, an incredible feat in college football. Iowa is 3-3 this season and 1-1 on the road.
Iowa-Ohio State Odds, Prediction
Ohio State Looks to Keep Surging
The Buckeyes, led by head coach Ryan Day, finished 6th in the AP Poll a season ago and is primed to improve on that with starting QB CJ Stroud having another season under his belt. Stroud is the betting favorite to win the Heisman and has 1,737 yards through 6 games, posting a 24:3 TD-to-interception ratio. The Buckeyes’ 48.8 points per game rank No. 1 in the nation.
While Stroud has been receiving much of the praise, it has been an incredible team effort with one of the best offensive lines in the nation coupled with RB Miyan Williams and RB TreVeyon Henderson, both of which have over 430 rushing yards and over a 6.2 yards-per-carry average. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. also has been a walking highlight reel and could be one of the top receivers off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Buckeyes do not have many weaknesses offensively, and this game will be more about just how good the Iowa defense is. The Hawkeyes rank 3rd in opponents’ points per game, allowing just 9.8. Their strength is in the pass defense, allowing just 154 yards through the air and holding opponents to a 58.7% completion percentage. It also allows just a 3 yards-per-carry average.
Iowa’s defense, which has averaged an interception per game, also has done its job to force turnovers. It will be tested here, and against Michigan, it responded, allowing just 155 yards through the air but 172 on the ground. What Williams and Henderson can do may decide the outcome.
Iowa’s Key Strength Will Be Tested
It is difficult to look at this Hawkeyes offense and think they will have much success here. Iowa put up 14 on Michigan, but it has struggled for most of the season. Starting QB Spencer Petras is a senior but hasn’t necessary improved much, on pace for exactly how many yards he had last season; however, he has just 2 passing touchdowns through 6 games, a problem for the Hawkeyes. Petras had 10 passing touchdowns last season.
They have had only 5 rushing touchdowns as well, so the Hawkeyes struggle to find the endzone. The Hawkeyes are more effective on the ground, and of their 13.3 first downs per game, rushing makes up 5.3 of them as compared to passing which is at 6.5. That is not a common split, and it will be on RB Leshon Williams and RB Kaleb Johnson to get the work done.
Both have over 230 rushing yards on the season, but against a stiff Buckeyes defense, it isn’t likely they make much progress. The Buckeyes sit 10th in the NCAA in opponents’ points per game, allowing just 15.7. While its competition hasn’t been great, it allows just 93.2 yards per game. Its defense doesn’t force many fumbles and isn’t too prone to jumping routes and creating interceptions either. It sits fifth in the NCAA in opponents’ third down conversion rate.
Final Iowa – Ohio State Odds, Prediction
The Hawkeyes’ defense is the real deal, and it limited what QB JJ McCarthy was able to do. Even RB Blake Corum somewhat struggled in that game. Michigan scored 42.7 points per game. Iowa’s pass defense strength should help it keep this game within four scores.
Stroud is the key to this attack, and it should be able to tame the star quarterback. The Buckeyes’ inability to force turnovers should create long drives and a ticking clock. A 30-point spread is too much for a Hawkeyes team that is allowing just 15.3 points per game in conference play.
Final Iowa vs. Ohio State Pick: Iowa +30.0 (-107) at PointsBet | Playable to +30.0 (+100)
