No. 4 Michigan hosts rival Michigan State on Saturday night in the annual showdown for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. The Wolverines hope to move to 8-0 for the first time since 2016 and in the process snap a two-game Spartans winning streak in this series. The Spartans, on the other hand, have struggled mightily in coach Mel Tucker’s third season, getting out to a 3-4 record, and losing its first three games of Big Ten play. All will be forgiven, however, if Tucker’s bunch can pull off the upset in Ann Arbor. Let’s dive into our Michigan State – Michigan prediction.
The Wolverines are 23-point favorites at home. The total is set for 55 points.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction and Odds
Going into almost every season, the narrative in Ann Arbor is that ‘this is the year Michigan will destroy Michigan State,’ but it just never seems to happen.
Dating back to 2003, Michigan State and Michigan have matched up a total of 19 times. The Spartans have kept 18 of those matchups within 23 points. Michigan State has also won 10 out of those 19 games outright and the average margin of victory is only 10 points per game.
Coming off their best game of the season – a 34-28 overtime victory over Wisconsin – Michigan State will look to defeat the Wolverines for the third consecutive season after the eighth-ranked Spartans rallied from a 16-point deficit with 6:47 left in the third quarter to beat No. 6 Michigan 37-33 in East Lansing last year.
Michigan will look to revenge last year’s loss sitting at 7-0 in consecutive years for the first time since the 1975, 1975 seasons, and third time in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s eight seasons.
Both teams had a bye last week, and while the Wolverines are aiming to keep pace with their goals to win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff, the Spartans are more-or-less playing for bragging rights and to potentially increase its chances of being bowl-eligible.
How Good is Michigan?
While there’s no doubt Michigan has played a relatively easy schedule thus far, the Wolverines have been outstanding with the ball, ranking as the 10th best scoring offense in college football. With the nation’s 7th best rushing attack, the Wolverines are gaining 6.8 yards per play while ranking third in Success Rate and 28th in EPA/Play. Leading the way for the Blue and Maize is running back Blake Corum, who is averaging 6.7 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns. His 92.9 PFF Rushing Grade leads all of college football.
Facing a Michigan State defense that is giving up 153.3 rushing yards per game – ranking 11th in the conference and 78th in the country – Corum is in another great spot on Saturday night.
While Corum has been the star of the show, quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been impressive in his own right, with an 82.9% adjusted completion percentage. Second to only Oregon’s Bo Nix in that category, McCarthy has the Wolverines ranked sixth in the country in Passing Success Rate and he should be able to torch Michigan State’s weak secondary.
On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan has been incredibly stout to start the season. Giving up only 12.1 points per game, the Wolverines join top-ranked Georgia and No. 2 Ohio State as the only three FBS teams that rank among the top 10 in scoring offense, scoring defense and average scoring differential.
Overall, for the season, Michigan is No. 1 in the country in yards per play allowed at 3.8 and ranks 10th in Success Rate Allowed and fourth in EPA/Play Allowed.
Leading the way for the Wolverines defense is star defensive end Mike Morris. After only picking up a half a sack in two years playing behind Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, Morris has five sacks this season to double the total of any teammate. The redshirt junior has eight tackles for losses, four quarterback hits, one forced fumble, a pass breakup and one blocked kick.
How Bad is Michigan State?
While the results have been abysmal, the Spartans’ offense hasn’t been all that bad, gaining 5.5 yards per play and ranking 67th in Offensive Success Rate.
It hasn’t been all that good either though, as Mel Tucker’s squad currently ranks 75th in the country in Rushing Success Rate, 95th in Offensive Line Yards and is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Lead back Jalen Berger was expected to be a difference maker, but the Wisconsin transfer has struggled with a 67.3 PFF rushing grade and only 11 runs of over 10 yards.
Despite throwing for a pair of touchdowns and putting up a season-best 82.0 PFF passing grade two weeks ago in that aforementioned win over Wisconsin, Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has struggled mightily in the pocket this season. Averaging only 7.2 yards per attempt with a passing grade of 69.3, Thorne will need to improve on those numbers dramatically if the Spartans have any shot at keeping this game close.
On defense, the Spartans are led by UNLV transfer Jacoby Windmon. Leading college football with six forced fumbles, Windmon is the first Spartan to be named the defensive player of the week three times in a season, and the sixth player to do it in Big 10 history.
While the front seven has been halfway decent for Michigan State, the Spartans’ secondary could be in a tough spot versus McCarthy and Michigan’s passing game. Simply put, the Spartans’ secondary has been atrocious this season, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt, good for 111th in the nation. Sparty also ranks 120th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed.
Michigan State will need to get stops to give themselves a chance in this game, and that will be a tough task with a defense that ranks 86th in the country in Defensive Finishing Drives. Facing a Wolverines offense that ranks 10th nationally in that category only makes it that much tougher.
Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction
Given Michigan State’s recent success against the Wolverines, it’s hard not to be intrigued with the 23-points the Spartans are getting in this spot. The masses agree with that sentiment, however, as 58% of the bets and 78% of the money placed on this game currently resides on Michigan State.
Michigan is just the far better team right now and after losing to the Spartans two years in a row, expect to see the best Jim Harbaugh’s group has to offer on Saturday night.
Take the contrarian favorite, roll with Michigan.
Best NCAAF Bets: Michigan -23 (-112, FanDuel)
