Coming off its first loss of the season, No. 16 Syracuse hosts unranked Notre Dame in an intriguing Halloween weekend battle. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our Syracuse-Notre Dame prediction, odds and pick we have laid out below.
Syracuse had been one of the surprise stories of the college football season, starting 6-0, but the unbeaten run finally came to an end last week against Clemson. The Orange took a lead all the way into the fourth quarter against the Tigers, but ultimately they couldn’t do enough offensively to put the game away and lost 27-21.
After being ranked in the preseason, Notre Dame promptly lost its first two games. The Fighting Irish have since won four of five and are beginning a two-game stretch against ranked opponents — they host No. 5 Clemson next week — that could make or break their season
The Orange are 1.5-point favorites at home. The total is set for 47.5 points.
College Football Odds: Notre Dame-Syracuse Odds
It’s been an up-and-down season thus far in South Bend, as Notre Dame (4-3) has solid wins over North Carolina and BYU, and also played Ohio State tougher than any team up to this point. On the flip side, the Irish have lost two home games as a 14-plus-point favorite, to Marshall and Stanford.
With first-year head coach Marcus Freeman adjusting to his new role, a bit of inconsistency was to be expected, so it will be interesting to see how the season plays out.
Prior to last week’s loss to Clemson, Syracuse (6-1) was extremely close to sitting inside the Top 10 and likely hosting College GameDay on Saturday. The college football gods had other plans, however, as a costly late hit penalty and some untimely three-and-outs ultimately did in the Orange against the Tigers.
The question now becomes, can they turn the page quickly and be ready to go for a noon ET kick against the Irish?
Should Notre Dame be the Underdog?
After the home loss to Stanford, Notre Dame got back on track last week with a 44-21 victory over UNLV. Given the current state of the Runnin’ Rebels program, it’s hard to take a whole lot away from that game, so this week should serve as a good test for the Irish.
Away from South Bend, Notre Dame has played its best football this season. The Irish dominated now-ranked North Carolina in Chapel Hill, and in their only other true road game to this point, they held a second-half lead against Ohio State in Columbus.
If Notre Dame is to pull off the upset in the JMA Wireless Dome, quarterback Drew Pyne and tight end Michael Mayer will need to have big games.
Is the Syracuse Offense Legit?
The Orange success this season can be directly linked to improved quarterback play and improved defense against the pass. Sophomore Sean Tucker burst onto the scene in 2021 as one of the best running backs in the country, but the play of quarterback Garrett Shrader has been the big difference. With a better 13:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the Mississippi State transfer in his second season at Syracuse has seen his adjusted completion percentage rise more than 10% from his career mark.
With Tucker at running back and a dangerous target in the slot with tight end Oronde Gadsden II, the Syracuse offense has been multidimensional. Gadsden has nearly twice as many targets as any Orange wide receiver, holding the highest rating of any tight end per Pro Football Focus.
Though Shrader’s numbers look great on paper, he has just seven Big Time Throws and eight Turnover Worthy Plays. In his three-year college career, Shrader has just 24 Big Time Throws with 30 Turnover Worthy Plays.
The Orange should have success running the ball with Tucker, but their offensive line struggles in protection and will face a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in sack rate.
How Good is the Irish Offense?
Notre Dame has been at its best this season when it has stayed on schedule, relying on a strong offensive line and a powerful running game. Facing a Syracuse defense that ranks 84th nationally in Defensive Rush Success, the Irish seemingly have an advantage.
From a pure matchup perspective, Notre Dame should be able to lean on its ground game. The Irish offensive line, which ranks in the top 25 in almost every run-blocking metric, is in a good spot to control the line of scrimmage against the Syracuse 3-3-5 defense that ranks outside the top 115 in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.
While Notre Dame hopes to rely on its ground game, Pyne might be the key to its success. Pyne, who has made five straight starts, is 93 for 146 passing for 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns with three interceptions.
Almost half of those completions have gone to Mayer, who has 44 catches for 526 yards (an average of 12 yards per catch) and six touchdowns.
Syracuse is tied for sixth nationally in scoring defense, allowing 15.14 points per game, but Notre Dame has arguably the best offense the Orange have seen up to this point.
Final Notre Dame-Syracuse Prediction and Pick
Despite covering the spread in that six-point loss to Clemson, Syracuse was outgained 450-291 in total yards but benefited from a 4-1 turnover advantage, including a fumble return for a touchdown.
After taking care of business in ho-hum fashion last week against UNLV, this sets up as a great situational spot for Notre Dame as it looks to get back in the national rankings.
Since 2005, no team has turned a larger profit against ranked opponents that the Irish, who are 35-20 against the spread against ranked foes, including 12-3 over the past five years and 2-0 in 2002.
Back the Irish as small underdogs.
Final Notre Dame-Syracuse Pick: Notre Dame +1.5 (-112, FanDuel)
