Happy Valley is the site of a much-anticipated matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Ohio State Buckeyes this Saturday. Each enters the game ranked among the Top 15 teams in the nation. As we continue our college football odds coverage, this post will cover our Ohio State-Penn State prediction and picks.
The No. 2 Buckeyes opened as a 15-point favorite, and this spread has remained within 14.5-15.5 points throughout the week. It is significant that the line has remained over two touchdowns.
According to Pregame.com, 66% of the spread tickets and 72% of the handle is on Ohio State. The total is 60.5, with 73% of the tickets on the over using the sportsbook consensus at Pregame.com.
Ohio State-Penn State Prediction and Odds
Can the Nittany Lions Keep Up with the Buckeyes?
The reality is that the No. 13 Nittany Lions have no shot Saturday if they aren’t able to keep pace with the Buckeyes’ high-powered offensive attack.
Ohio State leads the country with 47 touchdowns and ranks second with an average of 49.6 points per game. The Buckeyes have scored at least 45 points in each of their past six games.
Penn State’s offense ranks 39th in the country with an average of 33.4 points per game but has failed to score more than 17 points in two of its past three contests. The Nittany Lions rank 65th in passing EPA (expected points added) and 78th in EPA per play.
The Buckeyes are going to score, as their team total of 37.5 points at FanDuel would indicate. It is up to the Nittany Lions to clear their team total of 22.5 if they hope to have any shot in this one.
How will Ohio State Respond to the Challenge?
Ohio State missed the College Football Playoff last season and can’t afford to have a misstep, especially with a matchup against No. 4 Michigan looming. So far, the Buckeyes haven’t really had to worry.
The last time they failed to win a game by at least three touchdowns was their 21-10 win over Notre Same in the season opener. The Buckeyes have outscored their opponents by 232 points over their past six outings, which includes a 54-10 win over Iowa and a 49-20 victory over Michigan State.
The Buckeyes are obviously good, and they might be the best team in the country. But how would they respond if the Nittany Lions were within striking distance late in this game? Chances are Ohio State’s talent would prevail, but it would make for an interesting dynamic in this road test.
Final Ohio State-Penn State Prediction and Pick
It is tough to play a side, especially with the number sitting above two touchdowns. Penn State tends to play Ohio State tough, but it is hard to find a significant matchup advantage for the home team in this one.
Rather than touch the spread, I’m going to bet against the Nittany Lions keeping pace with the Buckeyes by targeting their team total. They have an over/under of 22.5 points, and I have a hard time believing that quarterback Sean Clifford and company will get to 23 points on Saturday.
The Buckeyes rank fifth in the country on that side of the ball, giving up just 14.9 points per game. Their schedule hasn’t been the toughest, but it is clear this defensive unit has improved. I am willing to bet on them keeping the Nittany Lions in check during a 38-20 win.
Final Ohio State-Penn State Pick: Penn State Under 22.5 points (-113) at FanDuel
