Miami was able to escape Week 2 with a win against Southern Mississippi, but the Texas A&M Aggies weren’t so lucky against Appalachian State.
After scoring just seven points on offense in that loss to the Mountaineers, Texas A&M will try to get back on track with former LSU quarterback Max Johnson getting the start under center for the Aggies this week. Miami looks to improve to 3-0 and continue their ascension up the rankings under first year head coach Mario Cristobal.
It was an embarrassing performance all around for Jimbo Fisher’s squad in Week 2, but the offense racking up only 180 total yards is truly baffling. A&M posted just two drives that crossed the Mountaineers’ 40-yard line despite having an average starting position at their own 35. After that abysmal performance at home, it’s no surprise that Johnson is getting the start at quarterback this week and the challenge will be tough facing an extremely physical Miami defense.
Still, the Aggies are 6-point favorites on Saturday night.
Miami vs. Texas A&M Predictions and Betting Picks
In what sets up as potentially the game of the night across college football, oddsmakers still clearly believe in the Aggies despite its struggles against Appalachian State last week.
While the Hurricanes (2-0) might look better on paper right now, they have also struggled in wins against lesser opponents Bethune-Cookman and Southern Mississippi. After being mentioned in Heisman circles over the summer, Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has been just average with the offense leaning mostly on its rushing attack, mainly running back Henry Parrish Jr. Parrish has rushed for 217 yards and four touchdowns as the Canes have piled up 100 points in just two games. Heading into a hostile environment in College Station the Hurricanes are going to need much more from Van Dyke and its receiving core as the Aggies will surely make stuffing the run its top priority.
Is Texas A&M a Deserving Favorite?
The masses want no part of the Aggies here as 68% of bets on this game are currently on the Hurricanes. Miami is about as trendy of a road underdog as you will see. Given the state of the two programs right now it’s not surprising Texas A&M is getting little love.
With Johnson now under center for the Aggies, however, Texas A&M’s offense has a chance to look much improved. He’s the X-factor in a game that should be close throughout. After transferring from LSU, Johnson will look to recreate his productivity from last season when he was the primary starter in Baton Rouge. Former NFL quarterback Brad Johnson’s son, Max has thrown for just under 4,000 yards in his career including 2,815 last season while completing 60.3% of his passes for 27 touchdowns and only six interceptions. Johnson is a stud and definitely no stranger to the bright lights of college football.
This is the first meeting between these teams since 2008 and the first road game of the season for the Hurricanes, who will play away from home only twice in their first seven games. The Aggies, on the other hand play their third straight home game before four consecutive trips away from Kyle Field.
Offensive Resurgences?
Despite looking overwhelmed offensively last week, star running back Devon Achane continued his dominant start to the season scoring both of A&M’s touchdowns, dazzling on a 26-yard run and taking a 95-yard kickoff return to the house. With Johnson now behind center look for Ainias Smith to be his main target as the reliable wideout has at least one catch in 25 straight games.
Attempting to slow down Johnson and the Aggies offense will be a rising Hurricanes defense that has been solid through two games, ranking 11th in the country in Defensive Success Rate. Despite its early success, however, Miami’s defense isn’t projected to keep this up throughout the course of the season as SP+ ranks it as the 39th-best defense in the country. As a chalky road underdog playing in an extremely hostile environment, the Hurricanes will need to force Johnson into early mistakes and make the Aggies play from behind.
After struggling tremendously to get off the field on third and fourth down against Appalachian State, the Aggies will need a much improved effort on defense as they face the best quarterback they will have seen this year in Van Dyke. If Miami is able to hold the ball for 41 minutes and 29 seconds like the Mountaineers did, it won’t matter who’s at quarterback for the Aggies and Miami will be in a great spot for an outright upset.
Miami vs Texas A&M Prediction
Despite a lowish total of 45.5 points, this game should come down to quarterback play and we’ve got a good one on our hands with NFL hopeful Van Dyke duking it out with newly appointed Aggies quarterback Max Johnson.
While Miami looks like the better team on paper right now, there’s a reason Texas A&M is close to a touchdown favorite here, despite the world seemingly all over the Miami.
With their backs against the proverbial wall, however, expect Jimbo Fisher and his staff to have Texas A&M fully prepared and ready to go as they are getting no respect in a matchup at home with the higher ranked Hurricanes. Despite its ugly performance last week, I’m riding with Johnson and the Aggies here as the masses continue to pour money on an overvalued Miami team.
Best NCAAF Bets: Texas A&M -6
If DFS is more your style, you can find our late slate top plays here.
