Seven weeks of the NFL season are in the books and there continues to be significant movement on the 2023 Super Bowl odds board. Luckily for bettors, with line movement comes the opportunity to find value in the midst of market overreaction.
Week 7 in the NFL was full of more upsets. We are really starting to see a widened gap between the true contenders, outside of a few misprices that I’ll note. Notice that after the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs the gap goes from +650 to +1500. I still think there are some value spots though.
This column will use FanDuel Sportsbook each week to track teams and odds movement. You can shop for NFL odds across the market right on OddsShopper.
2023 Super Bowl Odds (Post Week 7 – October 25)
| Team: | 2023 Super Bowl Odds: | Last Week: |
| Bills | +270 | +290 |
| Eagles | +550 | +550 |
| Chiefs | +650 | +800 |
| 49ers | +1500 | +1900 |
| Vikings | +1600 | +1700 |
| Buccaneers | +1600 | +1100 |
| Ravens | +1700 | +1800 |
| Cowboys | +1700 | +2000 |
| Bengals | +2100 | +2400 |
| Rams | +2400 | +2300 |
| Chargers | +2900 | +1800 |
| Dolphins | +3300 | +4000 |
| Packers | +3300 | +2000 |
| Giants | +4100 | +5000 |
| Titans | +4700 | +5500 |
| Raiders | +6500 | +7000 |
| Cardinals | +7500 | +10000 |
| Patriots | +7500 | +5000 |
| Jets | +7500 | +8500 |
| Browns | +10000 | +8500 |
| Saints | +10000 | +8500 |
| Seahawks | +10000 | +21000 |
| Colts | +10000 | +5000 |
| Jaguars | +11000 | +7500 |
| Broncos | +12000 | +9000 |
| Falcons | +17000 | +15000 |
| Commanders | +21000 | +31000 |
| Bears | +25000 | +100000 |
| Lions | +26000 | +22000 |
| Panthers | +55000 | +55000 |
| Steelers | +55000 | +22000 |
| Texans | +100000 | +100000 |
Moving Up
Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Vikings, Ravens, Cowboys, Bengals, Dolphins, Giants, Titans, Raiders, Cardinals, Jets, Seahawks, Commanders, Bears
The two teams I mentioned last week to bet on, the Ravens and Dolphins, both moved up after wins this week. I am still not a believer in the two New York teams. But they keep winning and their prices keep going up. I’ll always recommend betting on the Bengals and Vikings (see below). As their price doesn’t ever seem to move up high enough yet, in my opinion.
Moving Down
Buccaneers, Rams, Chargers, Packers, Patriots, Browns, Saints, Colts, Jaguars, Broncos, Falcons, Lions, Steelers
Some major Super Bowl hopefuls are not only off to a bad start, but look downright awful. Both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and their respective teams lost to backup quarterbacks this week. The Chargers, Colts, and Broncos are other preseason Super Bowl hopefuls that don’t seem to have much hope left.
2023 Super Bowl Futures to Consider Right Now
San Francisco 49ers +1500
The 49ers lost to the Chiefs this week but moved up from +1900 to +1500. That is simply because they made a blockbuster trade for RB Christian McCaffery. The Rams, who were on a bye this week, moved down. This shows Vegas favors the 49ers to win the NFC West and be major contenders in the NFC. I agree and think the addition of McCaffery definitely puts the 49ers in the mix to win the NFC, an ultimately the Super Bowl.
Minnesota Vikings +1600
I mentioned the Vikings in this article during the preseason and multiple times throughout the season. They were on a bye in week 7 and their price still went up slightly. I think that is a product of the fact there aren’t a lot of true contenders in the NFC this season. With the Packers and Buccaneers struggling badly, the only teams at the top that seem like a true threat in the NFC are the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers, and Rams.
I’ve been bullish on the Vikings and I’m not going to stop now that they have emerged as one of the top five teams in the NFC. Outside of the Bills and Cowboys, the rest of the Vikings’ schedule looks to be very winnable.
