Christmas Eve is calling with an 11-game NFL Week 16 slate. Let’s analyze the best NFL player props for Saturday, including a bet on Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. For more NFL bets and best NFL player props updated in real time, be sure to check out our OddsShopper tool.
Best Seahawks-Chiefs Props
Geno Smith OVER 15.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
The Geno Smith hype has fallen quite a bit during the Seattle Seahawks‘ recent two game-losing skid. Last week against the San Francisco 49ers, Smith had his first game with only one passing touchdown since Week 6. Smith was almost a lock for NFL Comeback Player of the Year a few weeks ago, but Christian McCaffrey is now right behind him in that betting market. Smith will look to put on a show against the Kansas City Chiefs with not only his arm but his legs in a game that could be high scoring despite game-time temperatures of 15 degrees.
Smith has been a mobile quarterback since his days at West Virginia. He’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry with four carries per game this season. He’s surpassed this line in eight of 14 games, including seven of his past eight. The Chiefs have been prone to allowing big rushing games from opposing quarterbacks, giving up the sixth most rushing yards to the position, which resulted in the opposing quarterback eclipsing this rushing line in seven straight games.
Best Giants-Vikings Props
Justin Jefferson OVER 89.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Justin Jefferson has put together one of the best starts for a wide receiver through his first three seasons in NFL history. He’s over 4,600 yards with 24 touchdowns since his NFL debut in 2020 and will look to build on that against a lackluster New York Giants secondary. Jefferson leads the NFL in yards and receptions and is threatening the single-season yardage record held by Calvin Johnson.
The Giants were torched by the Washington Commanders duo of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson last Sunday Night, when they combined for 175 yards on 10 receptions. Jefferson is the best receiver the Giants will have faced this season, entering with 11 100-yard games and back-to-back games of over 11 catches. Kirk Cousins will look for Jefferson early and often in what shapes up to be a close game indoors in Minnesota.
Best Commanders-49ers Props
Christian McCaffrey Longest Rush OVER 16.5 Yards (-120, DraftKings)
McCaffrey has been everything the 49ers could have hoped for when they they acquired him in a trade with the Carolina Panthers. In eight games with the 49ers, McCaffrey is averaging 66 yards on the ground along with 43 receiving yards. McCaffrey helped them to a dominating win on Thursday Night Football last week and will have rested legs for this game against the Washington Commanders.
Led by Pro Bowler defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, the Commanders allow the fifth fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs and shut down New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley for three quarters on Sunday Night. Barkley then had a drive with three runs of at least 10 yards, including his longest rush of 15 yards in the fourth quarter. The Commanders have allowed eight running backs to have a rush of over 15 yards this season, with McCaffrey likely to make it nine.
McCaffrey is over this line in nine of his 14 games this season, including five of eight with the 49ers. In the past three games, McCaffrey has had a rush of over 20 yards and is seeing more than 20 carries per game.
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