The NFC South’s Carolina Panthers host the AFC West’s Denver Broncos in a battle between a pair of three-win teams. Denver opened as a 3-point favorite before being bet down to -1, which is where the line currently sits. As of Saturday morning, 69% of the tickets and 70% of the handle are on the Broncos. Both teams have had some terrible QB play this season, which creates an interest dynamic for betting this contest. One strategy to bet this game includes a Latavius Murray rushing plus receiving yards prop. Let’s dive further into the Broncos-Panthers matchup to make the best prediction and pick. For more best bets or to compare the best NFL odds, be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool.
NFL Odds: Broncos-Panthers Odds
Broncos: -1 (-110)
Panthers: +1 (-110)
Moneyline: Broncos (-120); Panthers (+100)
Over/under: 36 (-115/-105)
Latavius Murray is Officially RB1
The Broncos (3-7) made the decision to part ways with running back Melvin Gordon this week, which is not all that surprising given his fumbling issues and decrease in playing time each week. In his absence, Denver is expected to establish a “running back by committee” and rotate between Latavius Murray, Mike Boone, and Chase Edmonds.
However, both Boone and Edmonds are slated to miss Sunday’s game with ankle injuries, which means the backfield is completely Murray’s against the Panthers. Even when he was in a split backfield, Murray has put up some solid numbers both on the ground and through the air.
He put up 64 rushing plus receiving yards against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, 59 against the Jaguars in Week 8, and 72 against the Raiders last week. Murray’s prop for rushing plus receiving sits at 61.5, which is too low considering that this is the first game where he will be the only featured running back against a weak Carolina run defense.
In the two games in Murray’s career against the Panthers where he ran the ball at least 12 times, he went over 61.5 rushing plus receiving yards both times. This game should be no different considering that he is running behind an offensive line that ranks in the top half of the league based on Pro Football Focus’ pre-season rankings.
Carolina Defense Can’t Stop the Run
The Panthers (3-8) have a big problem defensively and cannot stop opposing running backs. Entering this week, they rank just 26th in the NFL in yards rushing allowed per game.
Their poor defensive play was predictable before the season started due to the weak personnel outside of Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu. Entering the season, Pro Football Focus ranked Carolina’s defensive line 24th in the league.
This defense has been specifically susceptible to running backs. It allowed 62-plus yards rushing/receiving to Nick Chubb in Week 1, Saquon Barkley in Week 2, Alvin Kamar in Week 3, James Conner in Week 4, Jeff Wilson in Week 5, Caleb Huntley in Week 8, and Joe Mixon in Week 9. That’s a litany of backs that have taken the Panthers defense to task.
Their run defense has seemingly gotten worse as the season has progressed, while running backs with the ability to catch out of the backfield have feasted against Carolina. Based on the personnel they’re currently stuck with, there shouldn’t be much optimism in the Panthers to turn it around.
Final Broncos-Panthers Prediction & Pick
Carolina has gotten killed by running backs all season, and that should not change in this matchup. To make matters worse for the Panthers, this game will likely be run-heavy contest due to the weather forecast that calls for rain all day. Denver is going to have no decision but to pound the rock all afternoon, which is a blessing in disguise. Murray’s line for yards rushing plus receiving is too low at 61.5 yards given how he is the main back for the Broncos on Sunday going against a weak run defense. The Broncos-Panthers prediction shouldn’t change here. The best pick is to stick with the trends and back Murray to get over this number, which would be the eighth running back to do so this season against the Panthers.
Final Broncos-Panthers Prediction: Latavius Murray Prop: Over 61.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120, DraftKings)
