In Week 12, the Baltimore Ravens play against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Baltimore looks like a true threat in the AFC, meanwhile Jacksonville is still trying to find their stride under coach Doug Pederson. Let’s dig into the Ravens-Jaguars prediction and NFL odds. For more NFL odds and best bets, check out the OddsShopper tools.
NFL Odds: Ravens-Jaguars Odds
The Ravens Look To Extend Winning Streak To Five Games
The Ravens are on a four-game winning streak and with being just one game ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals for the lead in the division, getting the win here is essential.
The Ravens' total DVOA is third in the league. Their offense is fifth-best while their defense is 11th-best.
Offensively, their strength is running the ball. Their Rush DVOA is first in the league. They are tied with Chicago for first at 5.4 yards per rush. Lamar Jackson leads the way with 666 rushing yards (team-high) on 97 rushing attempts (team-high) for 6.9 yards per rush. Kenyan Drake is second on the team in rushing attempts with 390 rushing yards on 83 rushing attempts for 4.7 yards per rush. Both Drake and Jackson have three rushing touchdowns each this season.
Although their strength is in running the ball, the Ravens are still good at passing it as they are eighth in Pass DVOA. Lamar Jackson has completed 63.4% of his passes for 1977 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions this season. Mark Andrews leads the team with 72 targets for a 26.1% target share, 48 receptions (team-high), 551 receiving yards (team-high), and five touchdowns (team-high).
Defensively, the Ravens have the eighth-best Pass DVOA and the 14th-best Rush DVOA. They allow 249.8 passing yards per game, which is 27th best and they are allowing just 86.4 rushing yards per game, which is third-best. This is a situation where likely game script is impacting some of these raw statistics. The Ravens are 7-3 and find themselves with leads late in the game. When opponents are down, they are more likely to pass the ball.
In a game-neutral scenario, the analytics would imply that the Ravens are better at stopping the pass than they are at stopping the run. All in all, their defense is above average.
Jacksonville Has A Solid Offense, Bad Defense
Overall, Jacksonville should have a better record than they do. They lead their division in points scored and also point differential. But regardless of that, they find themselves in third place at 3-7 after getting off to a good start this season.
Jacksonville is better offensively than defensively. Jacksonville is seventh with 139.6 rushing yards per game and tied for 17th at 222.6 passing yards per game. Travis Etienne Jr. leads the team in rushing attempts (131) and rushing yards (725) for 5.5 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns. In the last three games, Etienne has gotten pretty much the bulk of the carries with Trevor Lawrence and JaMycal Hasty getting a handful of touches.
Passing, Christian Kirk leads the team in targets (82) with a 24.6% target share. He has 679 receiving yards with seven touchdowns. Zay Jones is second with a 19.5% target share with Evan Engram (15.2% target share) and Marvin Jones Jr. (15% target share) in the mix. With Kirk having seven of the team's 13 receiving touchdowns, he is the pass catcher to target in fantasy and in prop betting.
Defensively, Jacksonville is not great. They are the 11th best in rushing yards allowed per game at 110 yards per game. They are tied for 24th best in passing yards allowed per game at 247.6, which is not good. From a DVOA perspective, their defense is 26th in Total DVOA, 31st in Pass DVOA and 15th in Rush DVOA.
Final Ravens-Jaguars Prediction & Pick
The way to find the best bets is to go to OddsShopper. Looking at the "Sharp Projection System" filter is the way to shop for game lines to find any potential edges. At the time of this writing, there are not any significant edges in the game lines. The best bet to make is the First Half Point Spread at Jaguars +2.5 (+105). This bet has a 49% expected win percentage and an expected ROI of just under 1%.
The other bets that grade out best in addition to the above are the First Half Total OVER 21.0 points (-110) with a 52% expected win rate and the Ravens Moneyline (-180) with a 64% expected win rate.
When shopping for props on OddsShopper, the recommendation is to change the filter to the Stokastic Projection System. The best prop bets include Travis Etienne OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-115), Trevor Lawrence UNDER 236.5 Passing Yards (-120), Christian Kirk UNDER 5.5 Receptions (-120), and Mark Andrews OVER 5.5 Receptions (+108).
Final Ravens-Jaguars Pick: Jaguars First Half +2.5 (+105), FanDuel; First Half OVER 21.0 Points (-110), FanDuel; Ravens Moneyline (-180), Pointsbet
