After an unremarkable debut against his former team, quarterback Deshaun Watson will face a tough divisional opponent in Week 14. The 5-7 Cleveland Browns have a ways to go if they want to claw back in the playoff hunt, and a win over the 8-4 Cincinnati Bengals is a virtual necessity. Cleveland’s playoff odds drop by 70% if they lose this game, according to FiveThirtyEight. Bettors looking for a positive return on Sunday’s action should tail these Browns-Bengals prediction and pick — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp bets and NFL odds.
NFL Odds: Browns-Bengals Odds
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Watson Isn’t Back to Speed Quite Yet
The Browns didn’t get enough help from Jacoby Brissett to remain true contenders in the AFC North. However, a Wild Card berth isn’t out of the question. The Browns rank a decent 14th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) behind their seventh-ranked offense, which running back Nick Chubb and a solid offensive line have powered this season.
Cleveland’s offense ranks fifth in yards per play and eighth in yards per rush attempt (4.8). Chubb ranks second among all running backs in rushing defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) with 221 and is second in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per carry at 0.79. Chubb has benefited from an offensive line that ranks 14th in line yards and 12th in run-block win rate. The Browns rank sixth in expected points added (EPA) per rush (0.01), making them one of the few teams to sit above zero.
Unfortunately, Deshaun Watson has looked rusty so far. He completed 54.5% of his passes for only 5.7 net yards per attempt (NY/A), no scores and one interception against the Texans. Although the Browns rank a solid 14th in EPA per pass (0.07), Watson ranks 42nd in adjusted EPA among 52 quarterbacks to have taken at least 25 snaps (-0.1). Watson’s performance came as no surprise to those who watched him go 1-for-5 for seven yards in the preseason.
Watson won’t get much help from Cleveland’s defense. The Browns rank 27th in defensive DVOA and 19th in yards allowed per play (5.6). They have fared especially poorly against the run — Cleveland’s defense ranks 32nd in EPA per rush (0.08), more than two standard deviations above the league average. That said, the Browns rank 26th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.8) and 22nd in yards rushing allowed per game (127.4). Opposing backs have generated 88.9% of that rushing yardage.
Burrow Looking for First Win Over Browns
After a rocky start to the year, the Cincinnati Bengals quieted their doubters with an impressive win over the Kansas City Chiefs. They remain tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the division lead. With Lamar Jackson now out with a knee injury, the Bengals have a shot to take back the AFC North. The Bengals rank an impressive sixth in team DVOA behind strong play by quarterback Joe Burrow.
Cincinnati’s offense has looked good, especially lately. The Bengals rank fifth in offensive DVOA and 10th in yards per play (5.7). Their passing offense ranks a dominant third in EPA per play (0.2), and Burrow ranks seventh in adjusted EPA among qualified players at his position (0.22). After trying to lean on a stagnant running game early in the year, head coach Zac Taylor has come to his senses and trusted the passing game. The Bengals now rank 10th in pass play percentage (60.9%).
The Bengals will also have star running back Joe Mixon available on Sunday. Mixon has struggled with efficiency this year, but he had started to turn things around before his concussion — after averaging 2.73 yards per attempt (Y/A) through the first four weeks, Mixon averaged 4.78 Y/A through his last four games. Mixon has been noticeably more efficient at home, as he has gained an extra 0.24 Y/A — and scored all six of his touchdowns rushing — in Cincinnati. The Bengals rank 13th in EPA per rush (-0.05).
Burrow and Mixon should get some assistance from the defense. The Bengals rank 11th in defensive DVOA and 15th in yards allowed per play (5.4). Cincinnati hasn’t performed exceptionally well against the run, as the Bengals rank 26th in EPA per rush (-0.01), but the team is less than a standard deviation below the league average. However, Nick Chubb did gash them for 101 yards and two scores on Halloween. Cincinnati’s pass defense ranks a much more respectable ninth in EPA per play (0) at least.
Final Browns-Bengals Prediction & Pick
The Bengals opened as 4-point favorites over the Browns. Sharps have since bid that number up to 5.5, but bettors can still get a fair amount of value until this number jumps over the key number of seven. Cleveland simply won’t be able to handle Cincinnati getting out to an early lead unless Watson turns a corner. It could happen this week, but fading the Browns until Watson actually does something feels sharp.
Cincinnati has attracted 73% of the cash at -5.5 or worse. This spread has already ticked up to -6 at Pinnacle, a much sharper book than public books like FanDuel and DraftKings. Expect this game to close at -6 or worse.
Final Browns-Bengals Prediction: Bengals -5.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Browns-Bengals OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper’s industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props — and even quarter- or half-based derivatives. Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model’s predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 14 matchup between the Browns-Bengals, the model has identified Watson as a player to fade at his current price.
Betting the under on Watson’s total touchdowns passing yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market.
