The Cleveland Browns finally have quarterback Deshaun Watson back from suspension. However, Watson struggled in his return to the field. He looked bad in the preseason and against the Houston Texans last week. His struggles anchor these best Browns betting predictions.
The predictions below might not correspond exactly to available betting markets. Bettors should consider these numbers when placing their wagers on Sunday’s action. Who knows, maybe these tips will help you cash a lottery same-game parlay ticket.
Best Browns Betting Predictions for Week 14
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No. 1. Deshaun Watson Doesn’t Clear 200 Yards Passing
Watson completed a pathetic 54.5% of his passes against the Houston Texans for 131 yards. He racked up a thoroughly unimpressive 5.7 net yards per attempt (NY/A) against one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Although the Texans have allowed the 13th fewest yards passing per game (209.2), that’s because their opponents can run out the clock. Watson couldn’t do anything when the Browns needed him to take the lead.
Cleveland won last week’s game as a result of solid play by the defense and special teams. Donovan Peoples-Jones returned a punt for a touchdown, Denzel Ward recovered a fumble in the end zone, and Tony Fields II ran in a pick-six. Cleveland’s offense produced two scoring drives in the second half, each ending in a field goal. Watson accounted for 21 of the 50 yards gained on the drives.
Vegas has set the prop for Watson’s passing yards at 222.5. That’s giving the once-solid quarterback far too much credit in his current state. Last week’s game wasn’t an outlier: Watson completed just one of his five passes for 7 yards in the preseason. Although he may eventually figure things out, he’ll struggle against a solid Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks 16th in yards passing allowed per game (215.7) and yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6). Their pass rush, which ranks 11th in pressure percentage (23.5%), will make his life difficult.
No. 2. Cleveland Doesn’t Sack Joe Burrow More than Twice
The Browns have owned Joe Burrow in his short career. Cincinnati’s quarterback has an embarrassing 0-4 record against his cross-state foes, including a 19-point loss this season. Cleveland’s pass rush deserves much of the credit for Burrow’s struggles: He has taken 4.3 sacks per game against the Browns for 32.5 lost yards per game. The Browns sacked him five times for a loss of 39 yards on Halloween.
That said, Burrow and Cincinnati’s offensive line have started to trend in the right direction. Burrow took 3.2 sacks per game in his first two seasons, but he has taken only 2.8 sacks per game this year. That number has dropped to 2.1 sacks per game since Week 3. Opposing teams have sacked Burrow no more than twice over his past four games.
In contrast, Cleveland’s pass rush has regressed. The Browns rank a lowly 23rd in pressure percentage (18.9%) and are tied for 19th in sacks per game (2.1). Cleveland got lucky in its first meeting against Cincinnati by recording a sack on 62.5% of pressured dropbacks. For reference, the NFL-leading Cowboys sacked Burrow on 46.1% of pressured dropbacks in Week 2.
No. 3. Browns Lose By Double Digits
Although the Browns are 4-0 against Burrow, Vegas expects Cleveland to lose by just under a touchdown. That spread is still giving the Browns too much credit. The Bengals are 4-1 at home this season and won those games by an average of 10.2 points. The Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins all came into Cincinnati and lost by at least 10. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers (who won in Week 1) and the Kansas City Chiefs (who lost by a field goal last week) escaped such a fate in Cincinnati.
Cleveland’s offense leans on the rushing attack to grind out wins. But if the Bengals get up early, the Browns don’t have the passing attack necessary to keep things close. Cleveland got blown out by Miami and the New England Patriots for exactly that reason, and that was with a better-performing quarterback under center. Although the books are likely concerned about Watson’s potential to return to form, the Bengals should dominate against a team that barely gained 5 yards per play against the Texans.
