In another underwhelming primetime matchup, the 6-6 New England Patriots and 4-8 Arizona Cardinals will face off in Arizona on Monday Night Football. Both teams will need a miracle to make the playoffs at this point, but the Patriots have a much easier path than their opponents. However, they’ll need to get some production from their tight ends with slot wide receiver Jakobi Meyers sidelined. Those choosing between tonight’s tight ends — Hunter Henry, Trey McBride and Jonnu Smith — should play the former in fantasy football or DFS.
Hunter Henry–Trey McBride Fantasy Football & DFS Rankings
Just about every metric points to Hunter Henry as the better play at tight end tonight. Henry ranks as the best tight end in Stokastic’s fantasy football start-sit rankings and is a 65% favorite in our free player comparison tool. According to Stokastic’s projections, Henry is good for 7.58 fantasy points to McBride’s 4.86.
But those choosing between Henry and McBride need not only take Stokastic’s word for it — a quick look at the matchup data reveals Henry to be the much sharper pick. The Arizona Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends this year (19.4) by nearly a four-point margin. They have given up the most total receptions (83) and touchdowns (9) to the position this year. In contrast, the Patriots have allowed the seventh-fewest receptions (50) — but the second-most touchdowns (8) — to tight ends.
With slot receiver Jakobi Meyers out, the New England Patriots are likely to feature other short-yardage receivers, like Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson and Jonnu Smith, in much larger roles. Arizona’s blitz-heavy defense, which rushes the quarterback 35.3% of the time, will likely leave these players open more often than usual. Further, Meyers and Damien Harris had combined for nine red-zone targets this year. With Henry leading the team in red-zone target share (21.9%), the big tight end is now the clear favorite for high-value looks.
In contrast, the Arizona Cardinals are coming off a bye week and just got Marquise Brown back from an injury two weeks ago. Although Rondale Moore is now out with an injury of his own, Trey McBride must compete against Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Greg Dortch for targets. McBride earned just three targets, of which he caught only one for one yard, with Brown and Hopkins active but Dortch and Moore out in Week 12.
