The Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions are trending in the right direction. The Jaguars earned a narrow upset win over the Baltimore Ravens last week, and the Lions played the Buffalo Bills close. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Jaguars-Lions prediction and picks, or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
NFL Odds: Jaguars-Lions Odds
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Jacksonville Building Momentum
The Jaguars (4-7) can still win the AFC South, but they’ll probably have to win out to do it. They still have both of their games against the division-leading Tennessee Titans on the schedule. But if they want to start a playoff run, they can’t afford to lose any more winnable games. They rank a decent 18th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), which isn’t that far behind the 13th-ranked Titans, so expect plenty of effort from them down the stretch.
Jacksonville’s offense has led the way this year. The unit ranks 14th in offensive DVOA and 11th in yards per play (5.6). The passing offense has looked especially efficient, ranking sixth in expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.14). Quarterback Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been perfect, but he has completed 66.5% of his passes, which ranks 11th among the 35 NFL quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts, for 6.21 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which ranks 15th. Lawrence hasn’t gotten much help from his offensive line, a unit that ranks 29th in pass-block win rate.
Lawrence has gotten plenty of help from running back Travis Etienne Jr. The second-year phenom was averaging 102 yards per game as a starter before he was injured early last week against the Ravens. Head coach Doug Pederson has confirmed that Etienne is good to go, but the Jaguars might be cautious.
Jacksonville’s defense hasn’t played well. The unit ranks 26th in defensive DVOA and 21st in yards allowed per play (5.7). The Jaguars have fared better against the run, ranking 12th in EPA per rush attempt (-0.09), than against the pass, 21st in EPA per dropback (0.1). The pass rush deserves credit for ranking seventh in pass-rush win rate and eighth in pressure percentage (24%). The Jaguars have fared well against opposing wide receivers but have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to running backs (47.8) and the fifth-most to tight ends (59.6).
Detroit’s Defense Can’t Stop Much
The Lions traded tight end T.J. Hockenson at the NFL deadline and are likely out of the NFC playoffs barring a miracle. FiveThirtyEight puts their playoff chances at 8%. That’s slightly better than Jacksonville’s 5%, but at least the Jaguars have a path to the division lead. With the Minnesota Vikings at 9-2, the NFC North race has pretty much ended.
Even if the Lions miss the playoffs, they have shown a ton of fight this season. They rank a commendable 16th in total DVOA behind their 12th-ranked offense. The Lions led the NFL in yards per play earlier in the season and now rank a respectable eighth (5.8). Their passing offense, led by quarterback Jared Goff, ranks an acceptable 15th in EPA per dropback (0.05), and their rushing offense ranks 13th in EPA per play (-0.06).
Detroit’s stocky offensive line has anchored the rushing offense, but it has left the passing offense a bit vulnerable. The Lions rank fifth in both line yards and run-block win rate. Though they rank second in adjusted sack rate, they rank a lowly 24th in pass-block win rate. Goff has faced pressure on 21.2% of his dropbacks this year, and the Bills just pressured Goff on 35.9% of his dropbacks last week. Left guard Jonah Jackson will return from a concussion, but right guard Evan Brown remains out with an ankle injury. That could become a problem because Goff has completed only 23% of his passes under pressure, which ranks 35th.
Detroit’s defense has struggled. The Lions rank 24th in defensive DVOA but 32nd in yards allowed per play (6.3). They rank 30th in both EPA per dropback (0.17) and EPA per rush (0.05). The Lions also rank 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (154.6), 29.3% of which have gone to quarterbacks. That trend makes sense, as the Lions have blitzed on 31.2% of dropbacks, forcing opposing passers to scramble.
Final Jaguars-Lions Prediction & Pick
This spread opened at Detroit -1, but some books now have it at as a pick’em. The Jaguars have picked up 63% of the cash on just 26% of the ticket, so it makes sense to see the books move in favor of the sharp action. But because the line hasn’t moved much, bettors can still get a squeeze of value on the side markets. Wagering enough to profit a half-unit on Jacksonville’s moneyline feels like a solid play.
However, bettors can find more value on the player prop markets. Trevor Lawrence‘s rushing total sits at only 14.5, and he has cleared that number in five of his 11 starts this year. He should easily nose over it against a Lions defense that allows 45.5 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks.
Final Jaguars-Lions Picks: Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-110 for 1.1 Units, BetMGM)
Jaguars Moneyline (-105 for 0.53 Unit, DraftKings)
Jaguars-Lions Prediction OddsShopper Model
OddsShopper’s industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props — and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model’s predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 13 Jaguars-Lions matchup, the model has identified a Detroit receiver as a player to fade at his current price.
Betting the under on DJ Chark Jr.‘s total receiving yards yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market!
