Two of the hottest teams in the NFL square off this week when the San Francisco 49ers welcome the Miami Dolphins. Combined they have won nine straight games, and each team has had a very favorable schedule. This will be a true test with each team is in the running to win their respective conference. Nonetheless, let’s move on to our Dolphins-49ers prediction by using the latest NFL odds.
There hasn’t been much line movement for either the side or total in this game, and the 49ers are 4-point home favorites in a game with a 46.5 total. It’s a little bit of a low total considering the Dolphins have been scoring with ease lately, but the 49ers defense is for real. Let’s find the best way to take advantage in the betting markets.
NFL Odds: Dolphins-49ers Odds
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Tyreek Hill Is a Cheat Code
The Miami Dolphins have been scoring at will recently, averaging 33.8 points per game over their past four. They put up 30 points by halftime against the Houston Texans, coasting in the second half to a 30-15 victory. Their offense will be put to the test this week against one of the league’s top defenses. The 49ers are coming off a shutout and have allowed over 20 points twice all season.
After throwing three passing touchdowns for three straight weeks, Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa had a mediocre game last week, throwing only one touchdown, but he didn’t need to push himself in that cakewalk. This is a crucial part of the Dolphins schedule, taking on the 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills on the road in three straight weeks.
Tagovailoa has a fantastic wide receiver duo this season. For starters, Tyreek Hill is a literal cheat code. He is leading the NFL with 1,233 receiving yards but has been a little quiet in back-to-back weeks. The one game Hill faced the 49ers was when he was with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2018. That season he had a career high in receiving but had a pedestrian two catches for 51 yards on five targets against San Francisco. If anyone is going to take away Hill, it is going to be this elite 49ers defense.
Lining up alongside Hill is wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who ranks fifth in the league with 963 receiving yards this season. Waddle leads the Dolphins in touchdowns with six, and he is averaging 17.2 yards per catch, which ranks second in the league behind Buffalo speedster Gabriel Davis. Waddle is having a great second season as Tagovailoa’s second option.
It shouldn’t be a surprise with these two elite weapons that the Dolphins rank eighth in pass rate this season. Since trading away running back Chase Edmonds for Jeff Wilson Jr., the Dolphins have run the ball more over the past three weeks. Wilson Jr. already has a 100-yard rushing game and has scored twice in his three weeks with his new team. It will be difficult to find running lanes with both of the Dolphins tackles banged up and going against a 49ers defense that ranks second in run DVOA this season.
The Dolphins may not need to score 30 points to beat the 49ers, but it is tough to back their offense in this spot. With two conference opponent road games coming up, they may struggle in this non-conference clash. The Dolphins have failed to cover in five of their past six road games, and this may be their toughest road game yet.
49ers Defense Is a Juggernaut
Winners of four straight games, the San Francisco 49ers look poised for another deep playoff run. While the Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in road games lately, the 49ers have done the exact opposite at home. Playing at Levi’s Stadium, the 49ers have won eight of their past nine games. Their lone loss was to the Chiefs in Week 7 by a score of 44-23.
The story of the recent winning streak has been their defense. They rank fifth in total DVOA this season, and they have allowed a league-low 281.7 yards and 15.7 points per game. Over the past four games, the 49ers have not allowed a point in the second half, which is absolutely absurd in today’s NFL. In the past 16 quarters, they have allowed a total of 40 points, which averages to 2.5 points per quarter. With the Dolphins’ two tackles hurt, the 49ers defense should feast.
Not only have the 49ers been elite on defense, but adding RB Christian McCaffrey takes their offense to a completely different level. In his five games since joining the team, McCaffrey has averaged 16.6 touches. Most of his action has come via the pass, which is where to take advantage of the Dolphins defense. They rank 25th in pass DVOA and 12th in run DVOA this season.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is a winner and a great game manager. He has posted a career-high quarterback rating in his six-year tenure with the 49ers. With only four interceptions and playing against a Dolphins defense that ranks tied for 25th in takeaways, Garoppolo just needs to stay the course and he should be in for a great game.
Monitor the status of wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who is questionable with an injury. Brandon Aiyuk may need to step up if Samuel can’t go, but he is leading the 49ers in receiving yards and touchdowns with a career-high six. The 49ers are 5-1 at home this season, allowing only 8.4 points per game in their five victories. They’ll lean on that unit heavily.
Final Dolphins-49ers Prediction & Pick
Facing Tyreek Hill, who can score on literally any given play, is a nightmare for opposing defenses. However, this is an extremely smart 49ers defense and coaching staff and they’ll be ready to face Hill, just like they did in 2018 when they limited him.
The public absolutely loves the Dolphins in this spot. They are getting 79% of the bets and 86% of the money. Despite scoring 30 or more points in four straight games, the Dolphins offense will be put to the test this week. Take the 49ers to cover the 4-point spread, and this is playable anywhere between 3 and 5 points in favor of San Francisco.
Final Dolphins-49ers Prediction: 49ers -4 (-110, DraftKings)
