These teams just met a few weeks ago, but now the New England Patriots and New York Jets will conclude their divisional series in Foxborough, Mass. The Patriots closed as field-goal favorites for the battle in the Meadowlands, and the NFL odds reveal that they’re currently trading at 3.5-point favorites for their home game. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail this Jets-Patriots prediction and pick — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other smart plays (or stuff on Zach Wilson).
NFL Odds: Jets-Patriots Odds
Jets Need Wilson to Clean it Up
The New York Jets started the year at 5-2, but they've since fallen off a bit to 6-3. Their loss came at home to the New England Patriots, but they recovered by securing an impressive home win over the Buffalo Bills. The Jets will now travel to Massachusetts after a week off to get healthy -- but unfortunately, their offensive line remains tattered. Tackles Mekhi Becton, George Fant, Greg Senat and Max Mitchell all remain out, leaving the Jets with a banged-up Duane Brown and a struggling Cedric Ogbuehi. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker has also been lost for the year as well.
New York's offensive line cost the Jets a chance to beat the Patriots a few weeks ago. The Jets got out to an early lead but couldn't score in the second half because quarterback Zach Wilson struggled under pressure. Wilson faced pressure on a whopping 37.2% of his dropbacks. Considering Wilson has completed only 14.6% of his throws under pressure this season, which ranks 38th, it's miraculous that he went 20-for-41 in that game.
The Jets aren't as good as their 6-3 record suggests. Although they rank a solid ninth in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), they slot in below the league average in expected points added (EPA) per play. Their offense ranks a dismal 19th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA per play. Getting Wilson back hasn't helped much -- the quarterback ranks 29th among 35 eligible quarterbacks in interception frequency (3%) and 33rd in completion percentage (57.5%).
New York's defense has been responsible for the team's success. The Jets rank sixth in defensive DVOA and have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per play (4.8). They allowed the Patriots to only gain 3.8 yards per play in the Meadowlands but lost because the offense frequently gave them a short field. The Jets rank fifth in yards allowed per rush attempt (4) and third in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.8). Their pass rush ranks a scary fourth in pressure percentage (25.3%).
Patriots Getting Enough From Jones
After an impressive rookie year, second-year quarterback Mac Jones has underperformed this season. The Patriots sit at 5-4 but are only 3-3 in games that Jones has started. Although backup Bailey Zappe shares some of the blame for the loss to the Bears, New England's offense just hasn't clicked as well as it did last season. Still, the Patriots were able to move the ball just enough to beat the Jets by five in Week 8.
The Patriots slot in right around where the Jets do in the advanced metrics. They rank 12th in total DVOA and are right at the league average in EPA per play. Still, their offense ranks only 26th in offensive DVOA and 23rd in EPA per play. Although their offensive line hasn't dealt with as many injuries as New York's, the unit ranks only 22nd in pass-block win rate, just one spot above the Jets. Jones faced pressure on 40.9% of his dropbacks. That said, Jones has fared slightly better under pressure than Wilson -- he has completed 39.1% of his pressured throws, which ranks 22nd.
New England's defense remains ferocious. The unit ranks third in defensive DVOA and leads the NFL in EPA per play. Although the unit ranks only ninth in yards allowed per play (5.2), it ranks second in sacks per game (3.6) and leads the way in pressure percentage (29.7%). That said, opposing rushing offenses have gained 4.7 yards per attempt, which ranks 22nd, and 120.7 yards per game, which ranks 19th. For this Jets-Patriots prediction, it's important to remember that the Jets failed to capitalize upon this in their first meeting with New England, as they ran for a combined 51 yards on just 15 rushing attempts.
Final Jets-Patriots Prediction & Pick
Bettors who tailed the early bets column got the Patriots as field-goal home favorites before this spread moved over the key number. The Patriots haven't become a worse team since their last meeting with the Jets, so the books leaving the number the same -- despite New England getting to play this one at home -- made little sense. Unfortunately, buying New England over the key number offers considerably less value.
Instead for our Jets-Patriots prediction, bettors should target a same-game parlay at DraftKings to squeeze the remaining value out of this matchup. Bettors can pair the Patriots to get a pair of sacks, which they did the last time they faced Wilson, with the moneyline for odds of +100. With New England averaging 3.6 sacks per game and ranked third in adjusted sack rate (9.5%), targeting them against Wilson, who owns an individual sack rate of 6.7%, feels sharp. He has taken at least two sacks in all but one of his starts.
The Patriots haven't lost to the Jets since 2015. They haven't lost to the Jets in Foxborough since the playoffs of the 2010 season. Although Robert Saleh has started to turn this team in the right direction, don't expect the Jets to pull off an upset this significant so early into their rebuild.
Final Jets-Patriots Pick: Patriots Moneyline + Patriots 2+ Sacks Made (+100) at DraftKings
Jets-Patriots Prediction OddsShopper Model
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