With an exciting Week 10 in the books, bettors must move quickly to get the most out of the Week 11 NFL betting odds. Several interesting matchups jump out at first glance — the Patriots will face the Jets again in an important AFC East battle, and the 8-1 Vikings draw the 6-3 Cowboys after their tough overtime loss in Green Bay. Bettors looking for a positive return from their early bets should tail these Week 11 NFL predictions and picks.
Sharp bettors often bet early. Identifying games where future line movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing line value (CLV) relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover a 3.5-point spread, if it moves in that direction. Bettors can secure more value now than they’ll get right before kickoff by getting their action down on the Week 11 NFL betting markets early.
Early NFL Week 11 Predictions & Betting Picks
Jets-Patriots: New England Not Favored By Enough
The New England Patriots closed as field-goal favorites over the New York Jets for their meeting in the Meadowlands earlier this season. With the Patriots listed as just field-goal favorites for the rematch in Foxborough, the books think something has changed since Week 8.
However, it’s unclear what has changed. Both teams are coming off a bye week, so there’s no advantage there. The Jets remain pressed for depth along the offensive line, and although backup tackle Max Mitchell‘s window to return from the injured reserve has opened, it seems unlikely that he’ll be ready to go on Sunday. That will leave Duane Brown and Cedric Ogbuehi to start at tackle, but neither player owns a PFF grade above 60. The Jets already rank 20th in pass-block win rate as well.
Sunday’s matchup is a favorable spot for the Patriots because of their pass rush. New England leads the NFL in pressure percentage (29.7%) and Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has completed a miserable 14.6% of his passes under pressure. The Patriots successfully pressured Wilson on 37.2% of his dropbacks in Week 8 while he completed only 48.8% of his throws and threw a season-high 12 bad passes — 34.3% of his total throws!
Jets-Patriots Prediction: Patriots -3 (-110 for 1.1 Units) at BetMGM
Cowboys-Vikings: Sell High on Minnesota After Win
The Minnesota Vikings pulled off an improbable win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10. They needed a miraculous fourth-down catch from Justin Jefferson and a fumbled quarterback sneak from within Buffalo’s end zone to even send the game to overtime. The Vikings are incredibly overrated at 8-1.
The Dallas Cowboys match up well against the Vikings. They both average the same number of yards gained per play (5.4), but the Cowboys rank sixth in yards allowed per play (5), while the Vikings rank a lowly 28th (5.9). Dallas’ pass rush has anchored this defense all season and they rank second in pressure percentage (29%). That bodes poorly for Kirk Cousins, who has completed a mediocre 36.5% of his throws under pressure.
The Cowboys are just one-point favorites over the Vikings heading into Week 11. Although the Vikings should draw plenty of public action, the sharps should back the Cowboys here in an obvious bounce-back spot. Dallas will get Ezekiel Elliott back to help spell Tony Pollard, and pass rusher Anthony Barr could return to face his former team after missing Week 10 with a hamstring injury. Bettors should wager enough on the Cowboys to win to profit a full unit.
Cowboys-Vikings Prediction: Cowboys Moneyline (-120 for 1.2 Units) at DraftKings
Bears-Falcons: Total Too High for Rushing Battle
The books will rarely offer a total this high for two run-first teams. The Bears and Falcons rank first and second, respectively, in rushing play percentage. Both teams run more than 55.5% of the time, a frequency not seen since the 2009 New York Jets ran Thomas Jones into the ground.
Because these teams run so frequently, both of their offenses take a ton of time off the clock. Atlanta takes the third-most seconds per play (30.9) and Chicago takes the seventh-most seconds per play (30). While their rushing offenses have been efficient and both rank top 10 in yards per rush attempt, they may not have time to combine for a whopping 50 points.
The raw averages point to an edge here as well. The Falcons and Bears have combined to score only 44.9 points per game. They have also combined to allow only 49.7 points per game. Although the public might be super high on Justin Fields at the moment, the Falcons rank a solid 11th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.4) and have allowed only 89 rushing yards to the position all season.
Bears-Falcons Prediction: Under 50 (-110 for 1.1 Units) at DraftKings
