We’ve reached Week 5 of the NFL season and who would have though that the Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets is set to be such an exciting matchup!? These are two teams that love to pass the ball, which means that you can expect a lot of scoring.
The Dolphins are tied with the Bills for first place in the AFC East at 3-1. With the Bills facing the Steelers, the Dolphins are going to need to win in order to keep pace with them and remain tied for the division lead. The Jets are 2-2, so getting a win here can tie them for 2nd place with Miami.
This is an important divisional game for both teams. Can the Dolphins hold on to first place? Will the Jets spoil the Fins’ plans and move into 2nd? Let’s analyze this matchup and see!
Dolphins vs. Jets Week 5 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Dolphins vs. Jets Betting Odds
Teddy Bridgewater to Lead Fins' Offense
The Dolphins' passing attack has the No. 2 DVOA coming into this game and they are sixth in pass play percentage (64.8%). The Dolphins are also second in pass yards per attempt at 8.8 yards per attempt. That being said, this all could change with Teddy Bridgewater starting at quarterback.
Bridgewater has just 25 pass attempts on the season. He is only completing 56% of his passes, averaging 7.7 yards per completion although he does have a 64-yard completion this season. Bridgewater is typically known as a check-down guy, but this offense could be productive if he is willing to throw downfield. Bridgewater is not usually an efficient passer when throwing deep, but having Tyreek Hill as a threat in this offense should help him out.
Tyreek Hill has a 31.3% target share. Jaylen Waddle is next behind Hill with a 25.5% share of the passing targets. Raheem Mostert has 49% of the team's rushing attempts while Chase Edmonds has 35%. Mostert got a season-high 15 carries last Thursday against the Bengals. Overall, he is running the ball for just 3.5 yards per carry. The Dolphins have favored the pass for most of the season.
The Jets Defensive Pass DVOA is 29th while their Defensive Run DVOA is 14th. The way to attack and beat the Jets is through the air. That could play to Miami's strength.
The Dolphins are in a similar boat defensively in that their Defensive Pass DOVA tanks 31st and their Defensive Run DVOA is fourth in the league. Miami is allowing 299.3 passing yards per game. The way to beat the Dolphins is generally through the air, as well.
The Jets Look Toward a Winning Record
The Jets are 2-2 and are looking to get into the winning column this week.
Offensively, nobody passes the ball more than the Jets. The Jets are first in the league with a 70.2% pass-play percentage. They are just 28th with 6.1 yards per pass attempt, but they are fourth with 277.o passing yards per game.
Garrett Wilson leads the Jets with a 21.4% target share in that high-rate passing game. Tyler Conklin's target share is 16.0% and Breece Hall's is at 14.9%, while receivers Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are both in the 13-14% range. All in all, the Jets' distribution of targets is pretty balanced.
The Jets have split their rush attempts pretty evenly between Breece Hall (38 attempts) and Michael Carter (37 attempts). The Jets' Rush DVOA is 21st while they are tied for 21st with 4.1 yards per rushing attempt.
Defensively, the Jets are not good as their final numbers would imply. They are 29th in Pass DVOA and 14th in Run DVOA. They have allowed the 10th fewest yards per game in the league. Eventually, the DVOA ratings are going to catch up to them. This might be the week that we see that regression.
Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction
With two teams that like to pass the ball and each of the teams unable to effectively stop the pass, we should expect to see some scoring in this game. The game opened at a total of 44.5 and moved to 45. The lack of large movement is likely due to the fact that Teddy Bridgewater is in this game in place of Tua Tagovailoa.
According to the Sharp Sportsbook Lines at OddsShopper, the best game line bet to make is Jets +3.5 points.
As for props, the Stokastic Projections like Teddy Bridgewater OVER 21.5 Completions, Raheem Mostert UNDER 58.5 rushing yards and Tyreek Hill OVER 5.5 receptions. As of this writing, there are 20 prop bets just from this game that have a positive expected ROI according to the Stokastic Projections.
Generally, bets that favor a lot of passing and bets that favor an underperformance in rushing are the way to go outside of the game line.
Best Dolphins vs. Jets Bet: Jets +3.5 Points (-115), BetMGM
