Just as everyone expected, the Seattle Seahawks enter their Week 10 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a better record. The two teams will tangle for the first-ever NFL win in Germany. A quick look at the NFL odds reveals that the Buccaneers are slight neutral-site favorites. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Seahawks-Buccaneers prediction and picks or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other smart plays.
NFL Odds: Seahawks-Buccaneers Odds
Seahawks Turning Things Around on Defense
It sure looks like the Seahawks won the Russell Wilson trade. At 6-3, Seattle now leads the NFC West following a four-game winning streak. They rank fifth in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and are well above the league average in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Geno Smith and the Seahawks rank seventh in offensive DVOA and fourth in yards per play (6). Smith has completed an NFL-best 73.1% of his passes for 6.69 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which ranks eighth. He hasn't just been settling for dump-offs -- Smith ranks tied for 17th in intended air yards per attempt (IAY/A) among 34 quarterbacks with at least 125 pass attempts. He has even completed 49% of his throws under pressure, which ranks ninth.
The Seahawks have gotten a big boost on offense with the emergence of Kenneth Walker III. Seattle ranks third in yards per rush attempt (5.2), largely because of Walker's efficient play. Walker has averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 106 rushing yards per game since taking over the starting job four weeks ago.
Seattle's defense held the offense back early in the year, but the unit has since stepped up. The Seahawks rank 12th in defensive DVOA and 18th in yards allowed per play (5.5) on the year. However, Seattle leads the NFL in yards allowed per play over the last three games (4.2). The pass defense has taken major strides -- the unit allowed only 4.8 yards per pass attempt over Seattle's last three games, far below its 18th-ranked season average of 6.7.
Tampa Bay Leaning on Brady
Not much has gone right for Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. But Brady answered all those calling for his head with a crucial game-winning drive late against the Los Angeles Rams, and it's clear that he isn't responsible for Tampa Bay's early-season struggles.
Despite their 4-5 record, the Buccaneers rank 10th in total DVOA and are slightly above average in EPA per play. Quarterback Tom Brady has led them to a 17th-place ranking in offensive DVOA, although Tampa Bay ranks a lowly 25th in yards per play (5). Brady has completed 65.3% of his passes, which ranks 14th, for 5.92 NY/A, which ranks 21st. Despite those unimpressive numbers, Brady ranks fifth in on-target throw percentage (79.4%).
The Buccaneers have struggled because they completely lack a rushing game. Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in both yards per rush attempt (3) and rushing yards per game (60.8). A whopping 13 teams have averaged double what the Buccaneers gain on the ground per game. The blame falls on a combination of the offensive line, which ranks 29th in adjusted line yards and 22nd in run-block win rate, and Leonard Fournette, who ranks fourth-worst in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) among running backs with at least 14 carries.
Tampa Bay's defense has remained solid. The Buccaneers rank seventh in defensive DVOA and sixth in yards allowed per play (5). They allowed the Rams to gain only 3.7 yards per play last week. The Buccaneers have fared better against the pass than the run, as they rank 20th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.6) but fourth in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.7).
Final Seahawks-Buccaneers Prediction & Pick
The books aren't quite sure what to do about Tom Brady's passing props this week. Some books have the number as low as 275.5, while others have it at 286.5 with the juice stacked heavily on the under. Notably, BetMGM has the line set to 284.5 with the juice stacked on the over.
Trusting Seattle's defense to limit an opposing quarterback is a dicey proposition, but they've shown an ability to do so lately. The Seahawks rank 21st in passing yards allowed per game this year (225.9) but rank 14th over the last three games (187.7). Only three quarterbacks have cleared this number against Seattle thus far: Russell Wilson, Jared Goff and Justin Herbert.
Seattle's offense ranks eighth in average time of possession over the last three weeks (31:38). With Tampa Bay struggling against the run, Seattle should be able to wind down the clock by playing smart, complementary football.
Final Seahawks-Buccaneers Pick: Tom Brady Under 284.5 Passing Yards (-110) at BetMGM
Seahawks-Buccaneers Prediction OddsShopper Model
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