Did you miss Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos offense? Have no fear, they are back after the bye week in a road matchup with the Tennessee Titans that has a 37-point total. Let’s dive into the Titans-Broncos prediction, including a Melvin Gordon III prop, and check out the NFL odds for Week 10. For more NFL bets, check out our OddsShopper tool.
It will be interesting to see if the Broncos have any new wrinkles up their sleeve on offense, because 15.1 points per game is not going to get many wins on the board. The Broncos’ stout defense will have their work cut out for them against Derrick Henry as this game might be the first to 20 points wins.
NFL Odds: Broncos-Titans Prediction and Odds
Spread: Titans (-2.5)
Moneyline: Titans (-135); Broncos (+115)
Over/Under: 37 points
New Offense Out of the Bye Week?
The Broncos offense starts with Wilson. Hopefully he found some magic during their bye week because he has a career-low 36 QBR through seven starts. He has six touchdowns and four interceptions and has taken 3.3 sacks per game. It has been tough seeing such a massive decline in Wilson’s game, but this is what we’re getting. Wilson has thrown more than one touchdown once through seven games and hasn’t topped 375 passing yards since Week 1.
To Wilson’s credit, he may not have the best receiving corps. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy have nearly identical statistics this season as the main two options for Wilson. Sutton leads the team in receptions, targets and receiving yards but only has one touchdown. Jeudy has three touchdowns and is just shy of Sutton in receptions, targets and yards. Sutton has a 22.6% target share, but Jeudy has actually out-targeted him in each of their past three games.
Slot wide receiver KJ Hamler is only averaging one reception per game, but he is out this week, paving the way for second-year pro Kendall Hinton and rookie Montrell Washington to get more action. Both have been a non-factor this season, but throwing the ball is the best way to attack this Titans defense. They rank 15th in pass DVOA and 1st in rush DVOA. Maybe the Broncos’ surplus of tight ends can also help move the ball down the field, otherwise it will be a long day for this offense.
This is a tough spot for the backfield of Gordon III and Latavius Murray. They each have two rushing touchdowns this season, despite Murray playing only three games for the Broncos since being acquired from the New Orleans Saints. With two veteran running backs coming off of a bye week, the Broncos may lean on the run a little more if they can stomach only getting a few yards per carry against this defense. These two backs may be best utilized in the screen and short passing game this week. Melvin Gordon could be a good candidate for a rushing prop.
There isn’t much to like about this offense, especially going against a stout Titans defense that just held the Chiefs to 20 points. We’ll see if the bye week helped Russell Wilson and company, but this is a brutal matchup for an offense that has put up over 20 points twice in eight weeks and hasn’t topped 23 points yet. How the Broncos have a 3-5 record is wild, but leaning on their defense has been the recipe for success and will likely continue to be moving forward for the rest of the year.
Welcome to ‘Dehember’
The Titans are doing what the Broncos should be doing. They rank third in run rate at 55.6% this season, while they have one of the best run defenses in the league. Dominating the trenches on both offense and defense is what has them at 5-3 and 1.5 games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. After a slow start, the Titans rattled off five straight wins before the tough loss at Arrowhead on Sunday Night Football last week.
When the weather gets cold, Derrick Henry is just getting warmed up. Over the last five games, Henry has averaged 117.6 rushing yards per game with seven touchdowns. During that stretch he has rushed for over 100 yards in every game. He leads the NFL in rushing yards with 108.8 per game and has the second-most touchdowns with nine. Behind this offensive line, Henry is poised to keep up the momentum.
There isn’t much to discuss outside of Henry with this Titans offense. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is expected back after missing two games due to an injury. Rookie QB Malik Willis was not the answer as he failed to throw more than 80 yards in each start. Regardless of who the Titans have at wide receiver, Tannehill will keep the defense honest and bring more of a passing game element to the table.
Not only is Tannehill expected back, but wide receiver Treylon Burks may return this week as well. Make sure to keep an eye on his status closer to game time if there are any props that are intriguing. With Willis at quarterback, WR Robert Woods was a non-factor with only two targets in back-to-back games. Hopefully Tannehill is able to play to help this passing game, but even then, this offense still runs through Henry’s rushing attempts.
The Broncos defense sets up perfectly for the Titans offense as they rank first in pass DVOA and 25th in rush DVOA, making them a run-funnel defense. They will likely sell out everything to stop Henry, but when a team doesn’t have the horses, it won’t matter. Expect another 100+ yards on the ground for Henry and the Titans to feed him close to if not over 30 times. Let’s get into the final Titans – Broncos prediction and pick.
Titans – Broncos Prediction and Pick
This game total of 39 points is the lowest on the NFL slate this week, but with how much the Titans dominate the line of scrimmage and how inept both quarterbacks have been this season, it is hard to imagine many points being scored in this game. Seven of the Broncos’ last eight games have gone under the total. Both defenses were very strong and that is where we will lean. Take the under 39 points at DraftKings sportsbook.
If choosing a side, pick the Titans. They have won five of their last six and have covered the spread in each of their last six. Sure, the Broncos are coming off a bye week, but their offense looks abysmal this season.
Looking at OddsShopper for this game, the best prop to target is Melvin Gordon III under 31.5 rushing yards. The Titans lead the league in rush defense DVOA this season and Gordon III is basically in a 50-50 time share with Latavius Murray. Since Murray joined the Broncos, Gordon is rushing for 23.3 yards per game and has gone under this prop line in two of his last three games. This prop bet has a 14% ROI and an xWin rate of 61%.
Final Titans – Broncos Prediction: Game Total Under 39 (-110) at DraftKings
