There isn’t anything quite like Week 1 of the NFL season. The play may be sloppy in the first few weeks, but we have football nonetheless! Get comfortable because we have football from now until February.
The Tennessee Titans and New York Giants recent histories have been polar opposites. The Titans are looking to make the playoffs for the fourth-straight season, while the Giants haven’t made the postseason since 2016.
After opening as a 6.5-point favorite, the Titans are now only favored by 5.5 points. The total has also dropped from 44.5 to 43.5 points. That drop has resulted in this game being one of the lowest totals on the slate.
Week 1 betting is always a little difficult because we have no idea what to expect. However, there seems to be a great value to take from this game, so let’s dive in and get that bankroll up right off the bat.
Titans vs Giants Week 1 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Titans Will Greatly Miss Their Elite Wide Receiver
Despite winning double-digit games in each of their last two seasons, the Tennessee Titans have a 9.5 win total with the under being the larger favorite at -145. In their 12 victories last year, the Titans only won half of them by six or more points. They had a 6-1 record when games were decided by less than three points, which will be difficult to sustain.
There are several reasons to have some concern with the Titans this season. For starters, they traded away elite wide receiver A.J. Brown and failed to return anyone close to his caliber. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has failed to live up to expectations and doesn’t seem like he’s in the Titans long-term plans as he carries the largest cap hit in the league with an increase of $27.5 million from last year. Tannehill had 14 interceptions last season, which was the most he has had since the 2016 season.
The Titans two best players Derrick Henry and Robert Woods are coming off of season-ending injuries. Henry from a Jones fracture and Woods tore his ACL. Establishing the run was the Titans theme last season as they ran the ball on first down at the league’s highest rate. However, Henry’s explosive plays has decreased every year, dropping to 8% in 2021.
Probably the biggest advantage that the Titans have will be running Henry. In his eight games last season, Henry had 27.4 rushing attempts and 136.4 total yards per game. The Titans offensive line ranked first in power offense, while the Giants defensive line ranked 31st in adjusted line yards allowed. Expect another heavy dose of Henry in Week 1, I’m just not sure that it will be enough.
New Era for the Giants
Not only have the New York Giants not made the playoffs since 2016, but the most wins they have recorded since then was only six. It was time for a chance and they did just that by replacing General Manager Dave Gettleman. They added Head Coach Joe Judge to the firing squad and are starting fresh with Brian Daboll who has been an NFL coach since 2000.
Hopefully Daboll can create a new era and a scenario where Daniel Jones can thrive. Things have not been pretty for Jones so far. In the last two seasons, Jones has a total of 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He has shown promise every now and then but injuries and a weak receiving core hasn’t helped. Getting Saquon Barkley back to full strength is another big bonus for the Giants. Barkley has only played 15 games in the past two seasons, while averaging 3.5 yards per carry with two total touchdowns.
After having the second-most difficult schedule last year, the Giants have the easiest strength of schedule this year. They will likely be underdogs for many games like Week 1, but don’t be shocked if they surprise some people. Kadarius Toney also returns from injury and was hyped all off-season as their top wide receiver. Pairing him with rookie Wan’dale Robinson and veterans like Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton isn’t all that bad for Jones.
It may take a little while for this offense to start clicking, but they have a lot of talent on that side of the ball. Defense could still be an issue, but playing against an older quarterback who’s arm talent is declining could make their game plan of selling out on the run a lot easier. Don’t expect the Giants to win many games, but they could scare a few teams, including the Titans.
Titans vs. Giants Pick
The under of 43.5 was a little bit enticing due to the Titans ranking 27th in pace last season and will likely take a step back in terms of their offensive production. Also for the fact that they want to run Derrick Henry nearly 30 times a game. However, taking the Giants +5.5 feels like the best approach to this Week 1 game. Don’t be afraid to take a sprinkle on the Giants moneyline either, which sits at +230 on DraftKings Sportsbook right now.
In need of a prop bet as well? Look no further than Oddshopper, which has Robert Woods over 4.5 receptions (-115) as the best prop bet in this game. Woods is the obvious #1 wide receiver for Tannehill who could be forced to throw if Henry gets off to a slow start or the Giants heavily stack the box.
Let’s start this season off with a bang! Many more NFL articles coming your way. Enjoy the ride. Football is back!
Best NFL Bet: New York Giants +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings | Moneyline sprinkle at +205
