Betting on the NFL early in the week often presents the best opportunity to find value, especially when it comes to totals. Getting the best number available before the odds move is key to becoming a successful bettor. In Week 8, there is a slate of 15 games to look at in the NFL betting odds market.
Below are four of the best NFL bets on the board this week, with a focus on totals. Check out all of the best NFL Week 8 picks, and be sure to use OddsShopper’s NFL line shopping tool when looking for the best value on all of your bets.
Week 8 NFL Picks: Best Bets for Game and Team Totals
Steelers-Eagles (Eagles -10, 43)
I had one game specifically circled for this article. The Eagles are 6-6 in first-half overs and are also coming off a bye week. I wanted to keep notes on the side and total, and I think we get great value on both, which influences the first-half number.
I have this game at Eagles -13 and the total gets pushed down to 43 because of the Steelers, but it really has not impacted the Eagles’ side. A very popular first-half total that oddsmakers will post is 13.5 because it is just over the key number of 13. Also, for a team to land on 14 they need two touchdowns and the next key number up is 17.
In order for a 13.5 first-half over to hit, you need two touchdowns, which means offensive efficiency is critical. Opportunity is also a key factor in a first-half over play and the Steelers will probably have many three-and-outs or short drives, while the Eagles are second to the Chiefs in red zone scoring attempts per game. They average 3.2 offensive touchdowns per game.
I have taken Eagles OVER 1H in just about every game and will continue at the 13.5 number. I did stay away from it in the Cowboys game, but it still hit. I am very surprised oddsmakers did not push this total to 14 or 14.5 even.
Best Bet – Eagles OVER 13.5 1H (DraftKings -115)
Dolphins-Lions (Dolphins -3.5, 51.5)
Much like the Eagles’ first-half over, I have been riding the overs in Lions games most of the year and will go back to them again, especially at home. I am going to lean toward the Dolphins team total because the Lions have scored a total of six points in their last two games. Now, they were against the Cowboys and Patriots on the road, so you have to take that into consideration. But my concern here is that you could have the Dolphins put up 31-34 points and if the Lions do not get to at least 17, it won’t cash.
Opponents have scored 27 points or higher in 16 out of the last 20 Lions home games. Not only is their defense bad, but the dome/turf environment is also a big factor in a lot of points being scored. Add in a healthy Tua Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle to a team that is top five in passing plays percentage, and you get a solid 31-34 point output with room for even more.
Best Bet – Dolphins OVER 27.5 (DraftKings -110)
Packers-Bills (Bills -10.5, 47.5)
The Bills have not had a game go over 48 points all season, with six out of seven games going under the total. I am baffled at this total being 47.5 considering how bad the Packers’ offense has been. Normally, “Vegas” will set traps on lines but very rarely do they ever on a total. I just think there is a public perception about the Bills’ offense that says they will have this game in the 31-17 type range.
The Packers have had two games just over 47.5 and one of those was in overtime. This is a meaningless game for the Packers in the sense that it is a non-conference road game against the best team in the NFL. I cannot imagine they are putting a ton of effort into preparation for this game when they need to focus on their own divisional games now. On the other side, it is a cruise control game for the Bills in that if they get a big lead, they can either run the ball or bench Josh Allen.
The Bills rank fourth in opponent offensive touchdowns allowed per game and the Packers are seventh, so they should be able to at least keep the Bills from putting up a high total. But the Bills’ defense coming off a bye along with this line being the highest in Aaron Rodgers‘ career spells bad news. I have this game projected as Bills 27, Packers 13.
Best Bet – UNDER 47.5 (DraftKings -110)
