There are just two games on Wednesday’s NHL schedule, but there are still valuable NHL player props out there like with Nick Suzuki of the Montreal Canadiens. Let’s dive in and uncover the value with the help of the OddsShopper tool.
Tonight’s NHL Player Props | November 8
*Odds for NHL player props courtesy of FanDuel
Tyler Toffoli Under 2.5 shots (-114)
The New Jersey Devils have been one of the bright stories of this young season, not only due to their 9-3-0 record through 12 contests but their elite performance at both ends of the ice.
Early in the season, I like to seek out discrepancies between real and expected goals for/against figures, but there’s no discrepancy with the Devils. We’ll focus on the back end here as I like them to keep the Flames’ No. 1 right winger under his shot total in this one.
Overall, the Devils sit seventh in defense but also first in expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. However, when it comes to shot totals, let’s note that their Corsi against (shot attempts against) rate sits second in the league per 60 minutes at five-on-five, trailing only the notoriously stout Carolina Hurricanes back end.
Additionally, the Devils rank first by a mile with just 21.8 shots per game on home ice. Next-best is the Toronto Maple Leafs with a mark of 24.5.
Toffoli is averaging 3.36 shots per game, well over this total. However, the Flames are playing their second game in as many nights with travel involved after an overtime loss last night at the New York Islanders. Not only could they be a deflated club but also a tired one, especially as this game wears on against a stout Devils back end.
Toffoli’s shot rate has already subsided with just two pucks on goal in each of his last two contests so let’s make it three straight unders in this one tonight.
Nick Suzuki Over 2.5 shots (+136)
I believe we’re getting an unbelievable price here on Montreal Canadiens captain Nick Suzuki to hit over 2.5 shots in a road matchup with the Detroit Red Wings.
Entering this one, Suzuki is averaging 2.58 shots per game. For context, I see additional value with a player like Suzuki who owns a superior per-game shots average than teammate Brendan Gallagher (+116) but at a superior price. Suzuki is also playing far more minutes than Gallagher to boot.
However, I believe both are nice plays given Detroit’s numbers on the back end. The Wings sit 24th while averaging 33.7 shots against per game on the season, but also 29th in Corsi against per 60 at five-on-five action. Their shots against per 60 minutes to five-on-five rank 30th league-wide. Their 32.6 shots against per game at home is only marginally superior to their road mark while they sit 23rd in that department.
Clearly, this is a team with holes on the back end while both Alex Nedeljkovic and tonight’s starter, Ville Husso, have both seen plenty of rubber.
Not a shooter by trade, Suzuki is averaging nearly 20 minutes of ice time per game on the top line and top power-play unit. This is a fine opportunity to hit the over 2.5 at fantastic value.
Kaapo Kakko Over 0.5 points (+102)
I like the New York Rangers to take care of business against a New York Islanders team playing their second game in as many nights, so I’ve carefully selected Kakko as my points over for the Blueshirts.
Thanks to losing six of their last nine, Rangers bench boss Gerard Gallant has juggled his lines, notably moving Artemi Panarin to the top line alongside Mika Zibanejad, but also Kaapo Kakko as the youngster looks to capitalize on playing alongside the club’s top two offensive players at five-on-five action.
Kakko looked well-suited for the opportunity in an overtime loss to the Red Wings his last time out, scoring his third goal of the season while also putting five shots on goal as part of his attractive 16:02 of ice time. Kakko also gets second-unit power-play time in addition to the fantastic opportunity at even strength.
With six points through 13 games, the 2019 second-overall pick clearly isn’t lighting it up and has struggled to find his footing at the NHL level as of yet. However, he’s getting every opportunity to do so now and impressed on Sunday against the Red Wings.
The Rangers’ offense as a whole is set to positive regress as well. They sit 27th in overall offense but also 10th in both high-danger chances for per 60 and expected goals for per 60 at five-on-five. They’re certain to find their offensive groove moving forward.
Look for Kakko to once again pounce on a fine opportunity against a tired Islanders club tonight.
