There may only be two games on tonight’s NHL schedule, but that certainly doesn’t mean there isn’t value on the board. Let’s dive into tonight’s NHL best bets and see where the value lies.
Tonight’s NHL Best Bets, November 8
New York Rangers 60 Minute Line-New York Islanders (-120)
The New York Islanders are riding high into Madison Square Garden tonight on the heels of a come-from-behind overtime win on home ice last night over the Calgary Flames. That said, this remains a wildly difficult back-to-back despite the little travel involved.
The Rangers have certainly scuffled in losing six of their last nine contest including back-to-back 5-2 losses to the Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings as part of this four-game homestand. Their opportunity to close out the homestand with a win tonight is substantial before they hit the road for six of their next seven contests.
We don’t have confirmed netminders for either side yet, however, we can anticipate the Rangers catching a break and getting Semyon Varlamov between the pipes for the Islanders over Ilya Sorokin. That’s already an advantage before acknowledging that reigning Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin should get the nod for the home side.
Despite sitting 27th in overall offense, the Rangers also sit ninth in expected goals for per 60 minutes of five-on-five action, as per Natural Stat Trick. Their 2.10 actual goals for per 60 minutes of five-on-five action sit well below their 2.88 expected mark so positive goal-scoring regression certainly appears on the horizon for the Blueshirts.
Look for the Rangers to capitalize on a tired Islanders club tonight on home ice, winning this one in regulation time.
Winnipeg Jets Moneyline-Dallas Stars (-104)
The Winnipeg Jets currently sit as slight moneyline underdogs tonight on home ice against the Dallas Stars (-115) but I like their chances of winning this Central Division clash.
At first glance, you might be hesitant to bet against a red-hot Stars team that has won three straight while outscoring their opponents by a whopping 18-6 in that time, but I’ll take Connor Hellebuyck on home ice over likely Stars starter Scott Wedgewood.
Hellebuyck has once again been a brick wall for the 7-3-1 Jets, turning in a 2.09 GAA and .936 Sv% across nine starts, going 6-2-1 in the process. He’s won each of his last four on home ice, allowing two goals or fewer in four of his last five games overall.
The Stars sit fourth in overall offense on the season but slip to the middle of the pack at 15th in expected goals for per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Their 3.25 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five is notably above their 2.71 expected mark so we should see this offense cool moving forward.
At the same time, the Stars sit second in overall defense but also 14th in expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Again, we have a significant discrepancy between actual and expected results as their 1.74 goals against per 60 at five-on-five is well below their 2.58 expected mark. In this scenario, it’s mostly due to the elite play of goaltender Jake Oettinger, however, Oettinger is out for the time being with a lower-body injury.
Look for the Jets to stop the cruising Stars in their tracks tonight on home ice.
Minnesota Wild-Los Angeles Kings Under 6.5 (-112)
The Minnesota Wild and Los Angeles Kings are both off to lukewarm starts to their respective 2022-23 campaigns, however, both of these defenses should see some improvement moving forward.
This Western Conference tilt features the 25th-ranked Wild defense taking on the 27th-ranked Kings back end. However, it also features the fourth-ranked expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five for the Wild versus the ninth-ranked Kings back end in the same category. Both of these clubs have defensive expected numbers significantly superior to their actual results in the early stages.
Now, this is mostly due to poor goaltending on both sides, and of course, that’s a factor. Both Marc-Andre Fleury (unconfirmed) and Kings likely starter Jonathan Quick have yet to show consistent improvement with both posting uneven results on a nightly basis. However, at least for the Wild, they sit second in the NHL in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes of five-on-five hockey. At some point, Fleury is going to figure it out and the Wild back end should flourish.
I’ll bet on the positive defensive regression showing through for both sides in keeping this one under the 6.5-goal total.
