With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl among the NHL scoring leaders again this season, and the new-look Calgary Flames potent offensively as well, Saturday should make for another stellar edition of the Battle of Alberta between the Flames and Edmonton Oilers.
Dating to the start of last season, Flames-Oilers matchups have averaged 8.50 goals per game with the total going over in eight of those 10 games.
Oddsmakers are guarding against another high-scoring affair with a rare total of seven for this contest, but with all the logic supporting another potential barnburner Saturday, is that enough of an adjustment?
Make sure to shop more bets using our OddsShopper tool. Now let’s get into our Oilers-Flames prediction, odds and pick for Saturday.
NHL Odds: Oilers-Flames Odds
Same Old Story in Edmonton?
Edmonton (5-3-0) is widely expected to continue to take steps forward this season, and is considered by many to be a full-blown Stanley Cup contender after finally breaking through with a deeper playoff run last spring.
However, in the early going, the Oilers are exhibiting some of the usual concerns in goal and defensively. But those issues have often been masked by the ridiculously strong offensive results led by McDavid and Draisaitl.
Edmonton has scored 3.88 goals per game this season, which is third best in the NHL, yet has allowed a notably high goals against average of 3.25.
Thursday against the Chicago Blackhawks, penalties were a massive factor, as the teams combined to score five power-play goals in Edmonton’s 6-5 win. The Oilers hold a stellar success rate of 34.5% this season on the man advantage, while its penalty kill again appears to be an area of want with a 75% success rate thus far.
Saturday’s contest could likely end up as another penalty-filled affair due to the heated nature of this rivalry and overall intensity of the contest. The higher-than-average amount of minor penalties doled out clearly helped fuel some of the higher-scoring matchups a season ago.
Edmonton goalie Jack Campbell has struggled in the early going, playing to a goals saved above expected rating of -2.1 and an .888 SV%. It’s quite possible Stuart Skinner has already done enough to earn this huge start after another strong outing in a 3-1 win against the St. Louis Blues on Wednesday.
Calgary Surging in the Early Going
Calgary’s wild offseason drew a ton of headlines, and for good reason. The Flames managed to shake off a potentially nightmarish situation and reel in three truly elite players: forwards Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau, and defenseman Mackenzie Weegar.
The early returns on the new-look roster have been tremendous, as Calgary (5-1-0) has dominated with a 50.62% expected goals rate, which is far better than it sounds when you consider the schedule has already included the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes, Edmonton, Pittsburgh Penguins and Vegas Golden Knights, who all figure to be elite teams this season.
Calgary has played with a ton of pace yet again to start this season, and continues to do a great job forcing turnovers in the offensive zone and attacking with all five skaters. That has been a big part of its excellent 3.67 goals per game average, which is even more impressive considering the competition.
Kadri offers the Flames far more offensive punch on their second line than a season ago, and leads the team with nine points in six games. He is a massive reason the offense appears likely to cope with the losses of Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk.
Calgary is an elite defensive club by all means but struggled mightily to control Edmonton’s dynamic duo last season, and also saw goaltender Jacob Markstrom struggle against the Oilers.
A large portion of those struggles was that the Oilers were able to generate far more high-quality looks than any average roster could.
Final Oilers-Flames Predication and Pick
Edmonton simply is not likely to play lower-scoring games when facing an opponent with elite offensive capabilities, and that narrative has continued to show out in this specific matchup over the past two seasons.
This rivalry has offered some spectacular contests, and there is no reason to play away from the high-scoring trends it has typically brought.
There is value with the over 7 down to +100 should Skinner start for Edmonton, and the margin widens with Campbell in goal, in which case play the over 7 down to -110.
Final Oilers-Flames Pick: Over 7 (-110)
