One of the biggest parts of being a successful sports bettor is gathering information, but the key is getting the right information and then knowing what to do with it. Figuring out who is betting on what and understanding why is a critical piece of handicapping. That’s especially true in the NFL, where knowing the percentage of handle (dollars) compared to bets (amount) comes into play. This week, we’ve identified some NFL betting trends to be aware of, including following the public on the Miami Dolphins.
The goal of this article is to report on what teams the betting public is most heavily on and then to decide whether to follow the “herd” or “fade” them. It will focus on games that have at least 75% of handle or bets. This article’s process went 1-3 last week and is 19-10 on the season (66%).
NFL Week 8 Betting Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
Dolphins at Lions (Dolphins -3.5, 51.5)
Dolphins -3.5 Bets 79% Handle 68%
The Dolphins look to be back to the team from the beginning of the season that beat the Buffalo Bills at home with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. This is a passing offense and tailored made to air it out in the dome against one of the worst defenses in the NFL with the Detroit Lions. The Lions come off a bye and I only mention that because I would hope they get their offense back on track. They put up just 6 points combined in their last two games against the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots.
The Lions’ recent history of games at home is that they are track meets and fly over the total. I’m in agreement and recommended the OVER in my totals article earlier this week. Motivation is all on the side of the Dolphins as they have the Lions and then the Bears on deck. Every game like this is one they have to win in order to keep pace for a playoff spot in the AFC. The Lions do get back running back D’Andre Swift, which should help the offense.
I hate laying -3.5, and in a game which I think there are a ton of points scored, it might not matter, but this black cloud hanging over the game where we have seen so many home dogs find ways to win, or cover, has me wanting to pay for the half point and get to -3.0.
Best Bet: Dolphins -3.0 (DraftKings -133) — FOLLOW THE PUBLIC
Titans at Texans (Titans -2.5, 40.5)
Titans -2.5 Bets 89% Handle 80%
The Titans are 4-2 but have a point differential of -13 mainly from when the Bills blew them out 41-7. If you remove that game, they are 108-87 in PF/PA (average 21.6-17.4). If you look at their season results, the 21-17 is exactly who this team is.
Week 1 Loss vs. Giants 21-20
Week 3 Win vs. Raiders 24-22
Week 4 Win @ Colts 24-17
Week 5 Win @ Commanders 21-17
Week 6 Win vs. Colts 19-10
QB Ryan Tannehill was limited in practice Thursday with a bad ankle and rookie Malik Willis would start if he is not able to go. I’m already looking at this Titans team and wondering how they are doing it. They rank dead last in total yards on offense and allow the 26th most. A team that is supposed to be this great run team is only 20th in rushing yards per game. They allow the most passing yards of any team in the NFL.
Regardless of how bad the Texans have looked, I just cannot back the Titans on the road in a divisional game in which they might have to start a rookie quarterback. They had the lead on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders 20-17 going into the fourth quarter before getting gashed by Josh Jacobs and losing 38-20. The Texans are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 home games against the Titans. I do not like to lean heavily on head-to-head data in the NFL because of the heavy roster turnover from year to year, but the last two games in Houston were decided by a field goal. Just like the Dolphins, I am buying the 0.5 point here based on the history, and it should end up being a very low scoring field goal game.
Best Bet: Texans +3 (DraftKings -123) — FADE THE PUBLIC
49ers at Rams (49ers -1.5, 43)
49ers -1.5 Bets 74% Handle 91%
The last time these two teams played was on Monday night Oct. 3 and the 49ers were in a prime spot as -2 point home favorites. They won 24-9 and dominated the Rams offensive line. Now a few weeks later and they are slight road favorites in a series that they own the Rams. The 49ers are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the Rams and the UNDER is 7-3.
I was on the 49ers last week as I thought they were going to be able to slow down the Kansas City Chiefs offense and I was dead wrong. But now motivation is not an issue as the Rams is a divisional game in an NFC West where every team is 4-3 or 3-4. I do not see how the Rams offense will be able to stop the 49ers defense from again putting pressure on Matthew Stafford and causing sacks/turnovers.
Both defenses are strong and should limit the offenses as they have in the series. Look for the 49ers to win another close low scoring defensive battle 20-16.
Best Bet: 49ers -1.5 — FOLLOW THE PUBLIC
Bengals at Browns (Bengals -3.5, 46)
Bengals -3.5 Bets 84% Handle 80%
The Bengals have been a team I have been riding lately as their offense has really started to click with 27 points or more in four out of their past five games. Unfortunately, they lost WR Ja’Marr Chase to a hip injury for the next 6-8 weeks, but they have Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to pick up the slack. The strength of the Bengals is the passing game, and on the other side the strength of the Browns is their running game.
This is a Browns team that has lost four in a row but three of those losses were by 3 points or less. Their only bad loss was to the Patriots 38-15. If they had been able to win two out of the five games, perhaps this line would be closer to a Pick or even Browns -1. I think we get a very desperate Browns team on Monday night that knows this is a must win game if they have any shot at the playoffs.
My concern is the Bengals get out to a 14-0 lead and the Browns are forced to abandon the run, which puts them in a very bad position in game script. A big part of this decision is getting the hook with the Browns, and while you might not think it is a lot, it could end up being a critical point if the Bengals win by 3.
Best Bet: Browns +3.5 — FADE THE PUBLIC
