The 2022 World Cup final is here as Argentina and France lock horns on Sunday afternoon. Kylian Mbappe is attempting to win back-to-back World Cups by the age of 23, while the ‘GOAT’, Lionel Messi, is determined to lift his first championship in what will be his final World Cup match. There are sixteen No House Advantage World Cup player props to chose from in Argentina-France with three that you should focus on.
Our last World Cup player props article went two for three, with Luka Modric hitting over 76.5 passes being the only faulty leg. Check out the OddsShopper tools for more best bets and odds in every sport, and if you’re playing DFS for this final contest be sure to check out our Stokastic soccer projections and slate coverage.
No House Advantage World Cup Player Props
Lionel Messi Over 41.5 Passes
Our first World Cup player prop to highlight is Lionel Messi to go over 41.5 attempted passes. This is Messi’s last ever World Cup match, so you can expect him to show out and to pull out all the tricks.
We’re expecting Argentina to win the possession battle here, as France only averaged 41% possession in their last two matches versus England and Morocco. Argentina will have to turn the screws a little bit, which should allow Messi to build up a good number of short passes in the middle.
Statistically, Messi has attempted more than 41.5 passes in each of his six 2022 World Cup games, averaging 51.83 per match. He’s averaging 49.36 per 90 minutes, which is still a fair margin above this prop total. These numbers are a stark drop from his yearly average of 68.93 attempted passes per ninety minutes. Don’t let that scare you off of him. At this number of passes, with extra time serving as a real possibility, this is surefire play.
Nicolas Otamendi Over 73.5 Passes
Our next World Cup player prop is for Nicolas Otamendi to attempt more than 73.5 passes. We are favoring this prop for similar reasons to the first. Argentina will probably have to swing the ball around quite a bit and 73.5 passes is really not much for a center-back in an intense match like this.
Otamendi has hit the over on this prop total in five of his six World Cup matches so far, averaging 83.8 total passes in those contests. It is also worth noting that this average is being dragged down by his 39 pass performance against Croatia in the semifinals. Do not be spooked by this; Croatia is really good on the ball. This was the only match where Argentina’s possession fell below 48%.
Kylian Mbappe Under 30.5 Passes
To conclude, our last World Cup player prop is in favor of Kylian Mbappe staying under 30.5 passes. Mbappe’s role on Sunday is going to be goalscoring, and goalscoring only. He often rejects any defensive responsibility and lacks participation in the build-up.
Moreover, when France are out of possession his passing numbers are glaring. Against England and Morocco, Mbappe totaled 28 and 16 passes, respectively. While he eclipsed this prop total in his other three starts, I would not expect it on Sunday.
If Olivier Giroud is really injured, it could mean Mbappe plays through the middle, which would isolate him from the build-up even more. I see the PSG forward having a busy night in front of goal, but not in terms of passing to his teammates in this Argentina-France finale.
