A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals.
On the board for Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals: James Wood, Ketel Marte, Curtis Mead, Corbin Carroll, Andres Chaparro, CJ Abrams are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WSH) | +326 | NoVig | 23.5% | 37 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | +355 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 22.0% | 37 |
| Curtis Mead (WSH) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 36 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +500 | Unibet | 16.7% | 37 |
| Andres Chaparro (WSH) | +510 | Unibet | 16.4% | 34 |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 35 |
| Dylan Crews (WSH) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 35 |
| Nolan Arenado (ARI) | +685 | Kalshi | 12.7% | 35 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Kash Kong on Tails likes Washington Nationals -0.5 Run Line 1st5 (-115). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails likes Washington Nationals 0 Moneyline 1st5 (-140).
- EMac on Tails likes Washington Nationals -1.5 Run Line (+147). Bet now → NoVig
- MisterMarkot on Tails (#2 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Foster Griffin Over 1.5 Total Pitcher Walks (+113). Bet now
- Rebel Mickie on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-160). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Washington Nationals Moneyline (+113). Bet now → Novig
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Nolan Arenado Over 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score.
- JediModi on Tails likes Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+362). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals. BGrebbs, FOTP, JediModi, Kash Kong, MisterMarkot, PrizePick Champions , Rebel Mickie post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
More on this: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox Home Run Picks Today (8/19) · Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers Home Run Picks Today (8/19) · Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves Home Run Picks Today (8/16) · Washington Nationals @ New York Mets Home Run Picks Today (8/16) · Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals Home Run Picks Today (8/13)
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
