A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros.
On the board for Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez, Pete Alonso, Samuel Basallo, Isaac Paredes, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Adley Rutschman are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 100+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +255 | ProphetX | 28.2% | 37 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +450 | Bet365 | 18.2% | 37 |
| Samuel Basallo (BAL) | +500 | PointsBet | 16.7% | 36 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | +500 | Unibet | 16.7% | 36 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +543 | Pinnacle | 15.6% | 1 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | +539 | ProphetX | 15.6% | 5 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +579 | PolymarketUS | 14.7% | 37 |
| Cam Smith (HOU) | +590 | DraftKings 🎁 | 14.5% | 33 |
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- EMac on Tails likes Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Hits (+220). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails likes these plays:
- Prophet on Tails likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-107). Bet now
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails (#6 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-107). Bet now
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Spencer Arrighetti Over 14.5 Total Pitching Outs (-148). Bet now → Polymarket
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More from these experts on Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros. BGrebbs, Prophet post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 100+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment.
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