Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Best Bets For Monday 7/20
A strikeout-heavy Monday card headlines around Braxton Ashcraft for Eric Lindquist, who needed this one after a rough stretch. He'd gotten "hooked all over the place" Thursday through Saturday (a missed home run over, an under-strikeouts loss, and a stolen-base prop that died before it ever got a chance to cash) before salvaging the weekend with a two-homer rescue for +2.25 units. That's the mood behind Monday's full 15-game MLB card on the Leans, Likes & Locks show: process over results, leaning on strikeout props and a couple of well-priced longshots instead of forcing a dinger that isn't there. Below is the full Monday breakdown: the bets officially fired, the leans flagged but not bet, and the reasoning behind each.
One vocabulary note first, because it changes how you tail this. A lean is a game he likes but hasn't bet, an official play is one he fired, and the sizing (half unit, quarter unit, dart) tells you the conviction. A lean is not a bet that was made.
Braxton Ashcraft — one of the featured players on today's slate.
In Summary
- A Strikeout-Heavy Card: four arms fired on the over: Braxton Ashcraft (PIT), Dylan Cease (TOR), Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) and Jacob deGrom (TEX), plus Kyle Leahy (STL) on a model-driven under-the-radar strikeout side.
- Weather Flips The Twins-Guardians Total: wind blowing in at Progressive Field, one of the biggest stakes of the day at 0.3 units on the under 7.5 (-110).
- A Rare Plus-Money Dodgers Side: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline (+120), betting a Sánchez command dip over an improving Sheehan.
- Two Kauffman Stadium Home Run Darts: Rafael Devers (SF) and Heliot Ramos (SF) +475 on DraftKings, sized as small longshot stakes.
- A Marlins-Side +EV Angle: money line plus Liam Hicks (MIA) over 1.5 home runs, betting against a rusty Ronel Blanco (HOU).
- Where The Tool Agrees: the OddsShopper Hits props screen is flagging value on the hits-under board tonight, including a name from the Cardinals-Angels game.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (MLB)
Lindy ran all 15 Monday games in one breakdown, opening with the weekend recap before getting into the card. Watch it in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Monday's Fired Card At A Glance
| Play | Market | Price | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins–Guardians | Total | Under 7.5 (-110) | 0.3u |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Money Line | +120 | Standard |
| Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) | Strikeouts | Over 7 (near -130) | 0.5u |
| Dylan Cease (TOR) | Strikeouts | Over 7.5 (+120) | Just under 0.5u |
| Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) | Strikeouts | Over 8.5 (+180) | 0.25u |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | Anytime HR | Plus money (DraftKings) | Dart |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | Anytime HR | +475 (DraftKings) | Dart |
| Miami Marlins | Money Line | — | Standard |
| Liam Hicks (MIA) | Over 1.5 HR | — | Standard |
| Jacob deGrom (TEX) | Strikeouts (Pick'em) | Over 7 (-118 on a 6-pick PrizePicks card) | Pick'em card |
| Kyle Leahy (STL) | Strikeouts | Over 5 (-105) | 0.25u |
The sizing tells the story. The half-unit Ashcraft number is the single biggest stake, with the 0.3u Twins-Guardians under right behind it. The Cease, Misiorowski and Leahy strikeout props sit a rung below, and the two Kauffman home run swings are deliberately small darts rather than hammers. Prices move fast on plus-money props, so pull each one up on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen and grab the best number before you fire.
Weather Flips The Board At Progressive Field
Start with the total that anchors the card, because it's a matchup read shaped entirely by conditions. Joe Ryan (MIN) and Tanner Bibee (CLE) are both respectable righties who each give up real lefty power, which normally argues for the over. But the forecast flipped overnight: wind blowing in at Progressive Field, 82 degrees and only 43% humidity at first pitch, getting more pitcher-friendly as the night goes on. Layer in the bullpens (Cleveland's is elite, Minnesota's is not) and the under 7.5 at -110 becomes one of the biggest stakes of the day, sized above standard at 0.3 units.
That same weather swing shows up twice more on Monday's board in the opposite direction: wind blowing out at Wrigley Field for Tigers-Cubs and at Citizens Bank Park for Dodgers-Phillies. Both are flagged as home run-friendly environments, and one of them is the setup for the next play.
A Rare Plus-Money Dodgers Side
Citizens Bank Park is exactly the kind of park that should scare a bettor off the Dodgers: 80 degrees, 52% humidity and elevated barometric pressure, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), Bryson Stott (PHI) and Brandon Marsh (PHI) all hitting in it. Instead, it's the setup for the Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline at +120. Emmet Sheehan (LAD) has trimmed his expected ISO allowed to left-handed hitters from north of .200 to around .180 over his last month, real, recent improvement. Across the field, Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) carries a shiny season ERA built on an earlier 15-inning scoreless streak, but the underlying trend has soured: his elite changeup has dipped, his velocity has crept up into the low 90s the last couple of starts, his third-time-through-the-order numbers are ugly, and he had a blowup start at Kansas City plus a shaky All-Star Game outing. A team getting plus money is rare enough on its own; a team getting it while the opposing arm is trending the wrong way is the signal worth taking.
Two Home Run Darts At Kauffman Stadium
Devers and Ramos are the first two names on the card, and both point at the same ballpark. Kansas City hadn't officially confirmed its starter at taping, so the play is built around the Giants' bats instead: Rafael Devers (SF) and Heliot Ramos (SF), both anytime home run on DraftKings, with Ramos's number sitting at +475. Michael Wacha has shown reverse-split tendencies, giving up more power than expected on the platoon side that's supposed to favor him, and Kauffman is playing livelier as summer heat and lower barometric pressure move in. Both plays are sized as small, deliberate darts: real upside, tiny stake.
What A +475 Home Run Prop Actually Needs To Hit
The math on a plus-money longshot is worth walking through once, because it explains the small stake. At +475, a winning $10 bet returns $47.50 in profit, and the breakeven hit rate is only about 17.4% (100 divided by 475 plus 100). Ramos doesn't need to be a lock. He needs to clear that bar more often than the price implies he will. That's why plays like this get fired as tiny, repeatable darts rather than units felt over a full card: the individual hit rate is low by design, and the price is what makes it worth taking.
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The Marlins Angle: Money Line And A Lefty Bat
Miami's game carries a wrinkle. MLB.com listed Janson Junk (MIA) as the starter at taping, but the money-line play is built around a different arm actually getting the ball, Tyler Phillips (MIA), with real closing-line value expected once that's confirmed. Whichever arm starts, the read underneath the game is the same. Ronel Blanco (HOU), making his first start since May of last season, has historically struggled against left-handed hitters: a .290 ISO and 14.6% strikeout rate against lefties in his last extended sample, with a fastball he still throws to lefties nearly 40% of the time despite a 1.63% swinging-strike rate on that pitch.
That's the setup behind Liam Hicks (MIA) over 1.5 home runs, the primary lefty bat in this spot, a low-strikeout hitter facing exactly the pitch mix Blanco has struggled to get outs with. Second baseman Xavier Edwards (MIA) and right-handed Otto Lopez (MIA) were also mentioned as Marlins worth watching in the same lineup, but neither rose to a fired play.
The Strikeout Trio: Ashcraft, Cease And Misiorowski
Three of Monday's strikeout overs landed on the same card, each a variation on the same read: an arm with real swing-and-miss stuff facing a lineup built to feed it.
The Ashcraft number, over 7 strikeouts, is the biggest single stake at half a unit, a play called "a no-brainer" on the show. His curveball-slider combo has been "absolutely redonkulous all season," and he's carrying north of a 31.5% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. The Yankees are rolling out a lefty-heavy lineup with injuries mounting, and the projection has seven lefties in that order. The catch: the number moved 40 cents in the 90 minutes after it was fired, to near -130. Trim to a quarter unit if that's the number you see, and it's still playable to -135 (anything worse, pass).
Dylan Cease (TOR) over 7.5 strikeouts at +120 is the one that feels best on pure stuff, sized just under half a unit. Tampa Bay doesn't strike out much as a team (19.2% against right-handers), but Cease pitches deep into counts and gets ahead early against the Rays' bottom-of-the-order lefties, which is what matters for a strikeout total more than the team-level rate.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) over 8.5 strikeouts at +180 deliberately reaches for "the tippy top of his range" instead of the standard, heavier line. Misiorowski has had nearly two weeks of rest (13 days since his last start) after arm-fatigue chatter, and he'd posted 10 and 11 strikeouts in his two outings before that. Against a Mets lineup getting a diminished look from a still-recovering Francisco Lindor, this one is sized a quarter unit to win nearly half a unit. If the arm fatigue is real, this number was drawing dead anyway, so the aim is high rather than settling for a shorter price at a lower strikeout total.
Kyle Leahy's Strikeouts: The Value Bet Nobody Loves
Not every play on the card is a feel bet. Kyle Leahy (STL) over 5 strikeouts at -105, sized just over a quarter unit, got fired anyway despite the flat assessment: "I hate his stuff, he's not all that good." The case is the opponent, not the pitcher. The Angels roll out four right-handed hitters with real strikeout rates in the top six of their lineup: Zach Neto (LAA) north of 30%, Mike Trout (LAA) around 25%, Jo Adell (LAA) near 23%, and Jorge Soler (LAA) north of 30%. Leahy's ground-ball tendencies play fine against the lefties mixed in underneath them. When the model and the market agree on positive expected value even against a pitcher he personally doesn't rate, that's the number worth taking.
Jacob DeGrom's Pick'Em Strikeout Angle
Jacob deGrom (TEX) over 7 strikeouts rounds out the strikeout card, played as a pick'em entry rather than a traditional prop. The number opened at -122 on a PrizePicks 3-pick card and prices out to -118 on a 6-pick card, the reasoning grounded simply in deGrom's strikeout stuff being "back to normal" after an uneven start to the year.
Where The OddsShopper Tools Agree
The OddsShopper EV screen and Sharp Action tool are built for exactly this kind of shopping, and tonight the board is flagging value in a market the card above doesn't touch directly: hitters priced to go hitless. Two of the cleanest edges land in games already on Monday's card.
| Play | Market | Fair | Best price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | Under 0.5 Hits | +154 | +182 (Bet365) | +11.0% |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 | +202 (Bet365) | +9.8% |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +152 | +170 (Bet365) | +7.1% |
| Vaughn Grissom (LAA) | Under 0.5 Hits | +155 | +170 (Bet365) | +5.9% |
The one worth flagging is Bryan Reynolds (PIT), sitting in the same Pirates-Yankees game as the Ashcraft play above: his under 0.5 hits is priced at +182 on Bet365 against a de-vigged fair number of +154, an 11% edge. Vaughn Grissom (LAA) is the sharper tie-in. He's in the exact Cardinals-Angels lineup this card is already targeting for Kyle Leahy's strikeouts, so a book pricing his hitless odds this generously lines up with the same swing-and-miss read made independently above. These are the tool's own reads, not official card plays, so treat them as leads to shop, not fired bets. Grab the number direct from the book, or compare it against every other book's current sign-up offer on OddsShopper's DraftKings promo page and run any free-bet credit through the free bet converter before you place it.
What He Passed On
Part of the discipline is what didn't make the card:
- Tigers-Cubs Under 11.5 At Wrigley. Wind blowing out 15-18 mph, but the model had it closer to 10.5, and the number wasn't trusted enough to fire.
- Shane Baz (BAL) Under 5.5 Strikeouts At Fenway. Close to getting deployed, but with a full card of strikeout props already in play, it didn't need to be forced.
- Reds-Mariners Money Line. Passed entirely because Julio Rodríguez is back in Seattle's lineup: "if he wasn't there, I'd probably click on this."
- Nationals Home Run Props At Coors Field. Wanted, but the opening numbers weren't good enough to pay for a spot that's otherwise loved.
No play beats a bad number, every time.
On The Radar: Leans He Didn't Fire
A couple of games got talked through without a bet. These are leans, not plays, and treating them as fired bets is how you end up with a card that was never actually made.
- Ryan Weathers (NYY) Over 16.5 Outs: in the Yankees' bullpen-game half of Monday's doubleheader against the Pirates, a traditionally left-handed arm getting extra length against a Pittsburgh lineup that struggles with lefties, but this stayed a look, not a fire.
- Colby Thomas (OAK) Under 0.5 Hits: with Mitch Bratt (ARI) limited to three innings in each of his first two MLB starts and Colby Thomas carrying a brutal profile against right-handed pitching, the under is live if it gets to +110 or +115, but the confirmed lineup order needs to land first.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Lindy's top MLB pick for Monday 7/20? The biggest stake on the card is Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) over 7 strikeouts at half a unit, with the Twins-Guardians under 7.5 at -110 right behind it at 0.3 units on a wind-in weather flip at Progressive Field.
Why is Lindy betting the under in Twins-Guardians? Wind is blowing in at Progressive Field, conditions get more pitcher-friendly as the game goes on, and Cleveland's bullpen grades out well ahead of Minnesota's. That combination pushed the number below the market total.
What strikeout props stand out on July 20? Four overs fired on the same card: Braxton Ashcraft (PIT), Dylan Cease (TOR), Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) and Jacob deGrom (TEX) as a pick'em play, plus a model-driven Kyle Leahy (STL) over.
Where can I follow Lindy's full card? Lindy posts his complete card on Tails and walks through the slate on his daily research show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel.
Bet responsibly. Odds and lineups move; confirm the current number and the confirmed lineup before you bet. 21+ where legal.
