Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Best Bets For Friday 7/24
Eric Lindquist (Lindy) is coming off a rough Wednesday and Thursday and wants this 15-game Friday card to be the one that turns the week back toward 4-2. Fifteen games is the biggest card he's worked all week, but the home run weather is mostly flat across the board, so the conviction here comes from specific matchups, not the ballparks. Seven games produced an actual fired bet; the rest got a real look and either a lean or a hard pass, including two games he'd rather skip entirely than force a number.
One vocabulary note, because it changes how you read what follows: a lean is a game or number he likes but hasn't bet, an official play is one he's fired, and the unit size tells you how much conviction is actually behind it. Nothing below gets promoted from a lean to a play unless he said he bet it.
Garrett Mitchell — one of the featured players on today's board.
In Summary
- Seven Fired Plays across the 15-game card: Garrett Mitchell (MIL) Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs, Jared Jones (PIT) over his six-strikeout number (+121, quarter unit), Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) Under 4.5 strikeouts, the Minnesota Twins/Athletics Over 9.5 paired with Ryan Jeffers (MIN) Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs, the Houston Astros/Chicago White Sox Over 8.5, and Dustin May (STL) Over 5.5 strikeouts (quarter unit).
- The Favorite Prop Of The Day: Garrett Mitchell's combo-stat number, built on Tomoyuki Sugano's collapsing strikeout rate against lefties.
- Leans Worth Watching But Not Yet Bet: the Detroit Tigers run line over Kansas City, the Cleveland Guardians moneyline (the closest thing to firing all night), the Baltimore Orioles moneyline, and Jesús Luzardo (PHI) Under 7.5 strikeouts.
- One Price Still Being Stalked, Not Bet Yet: George Springer (TOR) home runs at Fenway Park, a longshot number Lindy says opened too long and needs to shorten considerably before it's worth taking.
- Two Games Getting Skipped Entirely: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, and the Los Angeles Angels' start in San Francisco.
- Live Board Value Tonight (OddsShopper's own de-vigged numbers, a separate read from the plays above): the best edge on the board is Trey Yesavage (TOR) Under 5.5 strikeouts at -110 (Bet365), an 8.6% edge, in the exact Blue Jays-Red Sox game carrying the Springer home run watch above.
Watch The Video
Lindy worked through all 15 games in one sitting with the board locked early. Watch the full breakdown in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Rockies At Brewers: The Favorite Prop Of The Day
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) draws Milwaukee's American Family Field, a top-10 home run park (107 HR factor) with its roof open Friday and the wind blowing ever so slightly in. That's not the angle, though, and Lindy says so directly: this isn't a home run play. Sugano's strikeout rate against left-handed hitters has fallen off a cliff, under 10% over the last month, under 15% for the season. A pitcher who can't miss bats from the left side against a lineup that hits from it is the setup, and Garrett Mitchell (MIL) is the hitter who cashes it in on contact, not just power. Mitchell strikes out plenty himself, but he sits in the top 10% of the league in EV50, the average exit velocity of his hardest-hit half of batted balls, the same neighborhood as James Wood and Yordan Alvarez. The fired play: Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs, priced at -108, the favorite prop of the entire card.
A Worked Example: Why Contact Rate Matters More Than The Home Run Angle Here
The play isn't "Mitchell is a power hitter," which is true of a lot of names on any given card, and it's explicitly not a home run bet. It's that Sugano specifically can't strike him out. A pitcher who misses fewer bats gives a proven hard-hit bat more competitive pitches to put in play, and against a combo stat like hits, runs and RBIs, more competitive at-bats is exactly the lever that matters whether or not the ball leaves the yard. This same park shows up again later in this board, too: Milwaukee's own total-pitching-outs number carries real value, more on that below.
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Cubs At Pirates: A Small Investment On A Bounce-Back Arm
Jared Jones (PIT) faces the Cubs after a stretch of clearly better stuff over his last few outings, form that got buried by a rainout that cost him a strong start against a weaker version of Cleveland's lineup. This is a tougher strikeout matchup than that one, and a deep pitch count isn't expected, so the size stays small. Turned from lean to small play: the Over on Jared Jones' six-strikeout number, a quarter unit at +121, trimmed down specifically because his fastball isn't missing enough bats to trust a bigger number even sitting 98-99 mph.
Royals At Tigers: A Run Line Lean, Not A Full Bet
Tarik Skubal (DET) gets a much better matchup than his recent starts, facing a Kansas City lineup still without Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone for a third straight game against, in Lindy's words, the best pitcher of the last three years in baseball. The Royals' probable arm gives up real left-handed power for Detroit to attack, but the Tigers' actual lineup construction is the wildcard, a platoon-heavy group where Friday's exact configuration matters. Unfired lean: Detroit Tigers on the run line, not a fired play, with Skubal doing the heavy lifting against a lineup missing its two best bats regardless of handedness.
Yankees At Phillies: A Strikeout Under, Priced Better Away From The Crowd
Cam Schlittler (NYY) and Jesús Luzardo (PHI) headline what Lindy calls the best pitching matchup of the day, no contest. Luzardo's strikeout number is the angle: Under 7.5 strikeouts, a line available on Pick6 at an unusually sharp hold, essentially matched at DraftKings, a razor-thin gap between books worth hunting for pairings. Schlittler's own side of the market surprised him too, a plus-money number he calls "a wild thing to see" given how much better his stuff has looked recently. Neither number is a fired play here, just two prices worth watching before the board moves.
Diamondbacks At Nationals: Small To Start, More To Come
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) draws a Washington lineup that ranks first in MLB in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and top-five in ISO, numbers he calls "ridiculous" on their face. That should read as a hitting matchup, but the play is the opposite: Rodriguez has been running a sub-3.00 ERA that his skill-independent numbers don't support, and the strikeout total looks soft given his recent stuff decline. Fired: Eduardo Rodriguez Under 4.5 strikeouts, priced at -104, a small starting size with more from this game under consideration if the number holds.
Braves At Orioles: A Moneyline Interest, And A Hits Number Worth Passing On
Grant Holmes (ATL) has quietly trimmed his home run rate after opening the season well north of 1.8 per nine, with no homers allowed over his last few starts. Baltimore's home run interest is real given some of the Orioles' left-handed bats, but the wind is blowing in from right field at a modest 7 mph, tempering that angle. The interest: Baltimore Orioles moneyline, a short-favorite price at -120 and a lean, not a fired play. On the other side, Trevor Rogers allowing plenty of hits to a Braves lineup that still hits for average is intriguing at Underdog's Over 5.5 hits number at -115, but the explicit call was "probably not going to do anything about it," a lean being flagged, not backed.
Guardians At Rays: The Money Line Closest To Firing
Joey Cantillo (CLE) and Shane McClanahan (TB) duel in a dome that rarely lets weather move a number. José Ramírez (CLE) is back for Cleveland, and while he's not the same threat from the right side, his splits as a right-handed hitter specifically have been poor this season, working against the Rays' pitching plan. Closest to firing: Cleveland Guardians moneyline, the single number closest to clicking on across the entire card, still unfired as of recording.
Dodgers At Mets: A Total Worth Watching, A Game Likely To Get Skipped
Roki Sasaki (LAD) has looked sharper lately, five clean innings in his last Yankee Stadium start, but he's coming off three straight outings allowing three, seven, and three earned runs against strong lineups. The wind blows out to left field, and the offensive gap between the two lineups is real, with Carson Benge, Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto getting the platoon look for New York. Shohei Ohtani opened at an unusually long, generous home run price for a lefty-on-lefty matchup, rare to see his number climb that high, but a lingering knee question keeps it off the board entirely. The only lean here: the Over 9 game total, enticing on the numbers, but the whole game is likely to get passed given the bullpen questions on both sides, Devin Williams included.
Padres At Marlins: A Pass, Not A Play
Germán Márquez (SD) draws loanDepot Park, a home run suppressor on paper, but Miami's own probable arm carries real uncertainty, a bullpen-game look with only two days of rest behind it and no official starter confirmed. The verdict: pass, in blunter terms, a game worth skipping entirely rather than watching or betting.
Blue Jays At Red Sox: The Only Home Run Play Being Stalked
Fenway Park sits at a top-10 home run factor (104) with the Green Monster looming, and Trey Yesavage (TOR) faces a Red Sox club riding a 15-1 stretch over its last 16 games with a fully rested bullpen, unlike Toronto's. But the play runs through the other dugout: Patrick Sandoval has been running hot against right-handed hitters all year in a way his underlying stuff doesn't fully support, and George Springer is the bat that matters against him. Springer opened at a long plus-money price to go deep, a number Lindy says is too long given this hitting environment, with his own break-even sitting considerably shorter than the open. The only home run play on the card, price-dependent: waiting for that number to shorten meaningfully before pulling the trigger, not fired yet at the open price. This is also the exact game carrying the board's single best edge tonight, more on that below.
Astros At White Sox: A Total Backed By Two Pitchers In Decline
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) has seen his ERA climb steadily over the last month, backed up by a skill-independent number that doesn't flatter him. Davis Martin (CWS) is staring down negative regression of his own. Houston's lineup against right-handed pitching still has Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña back in the fold, enough offense to lean into the total, but an 8-10 mph crosswind is the one thing holding the size back — without it, Lindy says he'd be firing close to a full unit. Fired: Astros/White Sox Over 8.5, at a standard-vig price around -110 to -115, sized down from what the matchup alone would otherwise warrant.
Mariners At Rangers: A Lean, Not A Fire
Bryce Miller (SEA) has had a monster season overall, but the workload is starting to show. MacKenzie Gore (TEX) gets a Mariners lineup that has been poor against left-handed pitching all year, even accounting for Julio Rodríguez's return and Cal Raleigh missing real time. A lean only, the Over, in a ballpark Lindy doesn't trust enough to fire a full play on either side.
Athletics At Twins: The Best Hitting Weather On The Card
Jacob Lopez (Athletics) and Zebby Matthews (MIN) headline the best hitting weather of the entire card, 12-13 mph wind blowing straight out to left at Target Field. Ryan Jeffers (MIN) is the centerpiece: over a 160 wRC+ against lefties this year and over 140 against righties, production Lindy calls the best on the Twins roster outside of Byron Buxton. Both fired plays here: the Over 9.5 at -105, and Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. Shea Langeliers (Athletics) and Royce Lewis (Twins) hits+runs+RBIs props were also flagged as viable pick'em pieces, with Lewis drawing more individual interest than Langeliers, though neither turned into a standalone fired bet at the shorter prices on offer.
Reds At Cardinals: A Quarter Unit On A Strikeout Bounce-Back
Rhett Lowder (CIN) gives Dustin May (STL) exactly the profile he needs: Cincinnati carries the second-highest team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the league, just behind the Angels. May's control wobbled over his last two starts, four walks each, real drag on his strikeout rate, but the underlying stuff is the version the Dodgers once promised, not the walk-prone version from recent outings. Busch Stadium's own modest total (8.5) reflects a pitcher-neutral park that won't get in the way. The last fired play: Dustin May Over 5.5 strikeouts, priced at -102, a quarter unit. This game turns out to be the single busiest one on tonight's board for OddsShopper's own value, more on that below.
Angels At Giants: Another Pass
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) draws San Francisco, a spacious park that still shows an 8-run total on the board given how much real estate is in play, even though Oracle Park is a real home run suppressor overall. The prices on offense against him were "majorly negative EV" on every look. The verdict: pass, treating this one as pitching-only or nothing at all.
Friday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Size / Note |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell (MIL) | Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs | Standard size (-108), favorite prop of the day |
| Jared Jones (PIT) | Over On His Six-Strikeout Number (+121) | Quarter unit |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-104) | Small starting size |
| Twins/Athletics | Over 9.5 (-105) | Standard size |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs | Paired with the total above |
| Astros/White Sox | Over 8.5 (~-110/-115) | Reduced size — crosswind held it back |
| Dustin May (STL) | Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102) | Quarter unit |
Seven plays, four different market types: two combo-stat props, two strikeout numbers, and two game totals. That spread says something about the card itself: the home run weather wasn't great across the board Friday, which is exactly why the props that did make the list (Mitchell, Jeffers) leaned on contact and matchup specifics rather than raw power numbers, while the totals did the heavy lifting on offense.
Friday's Live Board Value (OddsShopper's Own Numbers, A Separate Read)
| Player | Team | Market | Best Price | Fair Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Yesavage | TOR | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -110 (Bet365) | -132 | 8.6% |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | Under 0.5 Hits | +140 (Bet365) | +130 | 4.3% |
| Sal Stewart | CIN | Under 0.5 Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +186 | 3.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | STL | Under 0.5 Hits | +165 (Bet365) | +157 | 3.1% |
| Davis Martin | CWS | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -130 (Bet365) | -138 | 2.6% |
| Jacob Lopez | ATH | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -150 (DraftKings) | -155 | 1.3% |
| Shane Drohan | MIL | Under 17.5 Total Pitching Outs | +120 (Bet365) | +118 | 1.1% |
| Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -141 (DraftKings) | -145 | 1.0% |
| Alec Burleson | STL | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -120 (Bet365) | -122 | 0.8% |
| Patrick Sandoval | BOS | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -125 (FanDuel) | -127 | 0.7% |
| Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -128 (DraftKings) | -130 | 0.7% |
| Dustin May | STL | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -105 (Bet365) | -106 | 0.5% |
The pattern worth sitting with: the single busiest game on tonight's board isn't the Twins-Athletics matchup Lindy is already on, it's Reds at Cardinals, the exact game carrying Dustin May's fired strikeout play above. Blaze Jordan, Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson all show real value on the Cardinals' side of that same game, while Sal Stewart's number represents the Reds. The board's single best edge, Trey Yesavage's strikeout under at nearly 9%, sits in the Blue Jays-Red Sox game Lindy is otherwise watching for the Springer home run price to move, and Shane Drohan's own total-pitching-outs number lives in the Rockies-Brewers game carrying Garrett Mitchell's fired play. Davis Martin and Spencer Arrighetti both carry modest value on opposite sides of the Astros-White Sox total Lindy already fired, and Jacob Lopez's number is in the same Athletics-Twins game as the Jeffers play above.
Leans Without A Fired Bet
- Cleveland Guardians Moneyline: the single number closest to clicking on across the whole card.
- Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-120): real interest at a short-favorite price, not yet fired.
- Jesús Luzardo (PHI) Under 7.5 Strikeouts: a razor-thin gap between Pick6 and DraftKings, worth hunting for pairings.
- George Springer (TOR) Home Runs: watching for the longshot opening price to shorten considerably before firing.
- Detroit Tigers Run Line, Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 hits allowed (-115), the Mariners/Rangers Over, and the Dodgers/Mets Over 9 total: all flagged with real reasoning, none fired.
FAQ
What is Lindy's Leans, Likes and Locks? It's Eric Lindquist's daily MLB betting breakdown on the OddsShopper channel, where games actually bet get separated from ones merely liked, and each fired play is sized by conviction.
What's the favorite prop on Friday's card? Garrett Mitchell's hits+runs+RBIs number against Tomoyuki Sugano, Over 1.5 at -108, built on Sugano's collapsing strikeout rate against left-handed hitters, not a home run bet.
Why wasn't the George Springer home run prop fired? The number is too long. Springer opened at a longshot plus-money price, with his break-even sitting considerably shorter than that, so the number needs to move before it's worth firing.
Is a lean the same as a bet? No. A lean is a game or number worth watching but not staked; an official play means it's fired, with a specific size behind it.
Get These Numbers Before They Move
Strikeout and combo-stat props move fast book to book, and tonight's board already shows real value stacked in the exact games above, most of all the Reds-Cardinals game carrying four separate edges. Shop them on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, price the strikeout and combo-stat props above against every book before you size anything, and if you're sitting on a bonus bet from DraftKings or anywhere else, run it through the OddsShopper free bet converter before burning it on a plain favorite. Lindy himself leans on the liquidity tool and the live in-game EV screen to find these same numbers before they move.
Get 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro with code BABYLINDY50 → That's the same odds screen Lindy uses to shop DraftKings, FanDuel, Bet365 and Fanatics against each other in real time.
