Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Best Bets For Tuesday 7/28
Eric Lindquist (Lindy) came into Tuesday's "Leans, Likes and Locks" with a thinner card than usual, and that's the story of the day. Weather wiped out a chunk of the board (Guardians–Reds got postponed into a Tuesday doubleheader, and rain threatens the Nationals game so hard he isn't sure it plays at all), and rather than force plays into games he can't get comfortable with, he passed on a string of them out loud: the Diamondbacks moneyline, the Rays run line in Tropicana, the Giants moneyline. What's left is five plays he actually fired, and three of them are prop bets built around one specific outlier, not a moneyline or a total. Get to them fast, and I'll show you the two-homer longshot he circled twice before finally clicking it.
One vocabulary note, because it changes how you tail this: a lean is a game Lindy likes but hasn't bet, an official play is one he fired, and the sizing (quarter unit, half unit, 0.1 units) tells you the conviction. Don't treat a lean as a bet that was made.
Miguel Vargas — one of the featured players on today's slate.
In Summary
Tuesday's card is short but specific: five fired plays, built around props and a run line rather than a moneyline slate. The Twins run line is the safest number on the board; the Miguel Vargas two-homer prop is the longshot with the most process behind it. The full breakdown, including OddsShopper's own live value board, is below.
- The Safest Number On The Board: Minnesota Twins run line, priced around +135, a half unit. Lindy calls it one of his favorite plays of the entire day.
- The Longshot With Real Process Behind It: Miguel Vargas 2+ home runs against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees' bullpen, a long plus-money price, sized at 0.1 units.
- A hits-runs-RBI Play With A Sweetener Attached: Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI against Michael King, priced +107 (quarter unit), plus a home run add at +1000 (0.1 units).
- A Strikeout Ladder In A Hitter-Friendly Park: a Red Sox starter's K-ladder (6+ at +110, 7+ at +215, 8+ dabbled), 0.7 units total across the rungs.
- A Durability-Based Under: Reed Detmers on the strikeout under against a contact-heavy Astros lineup, in the +118 range.
- OddsShopper's Live Board (its own de-vigged numbers, not Lindy's plays) shows its best edges in the Phillies–Marlins game Lindy passed on, led by Aaron Nola Under 5.5 strikeouts at -130 (Bet365).
Watch The Video
Lindy builds this card game by game with the OddsShopper MLB odds screen open the whole way, cross-checking prices in real time against prediction markets as they move. Watch it in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Minnesota Twins Run Line: The Play He Trusts Most
Lindy fired the Minnesota Twins run line for a half unit and called it one of his favorite plays of the entire day, priced around +135. The case starts with weather: 88 degrees in Minneapolis with the wind blowing slightly out to left, which helps the righty-heavy lineup Minnesota rolls out behind Ryan Jeffers and Byron Buxton. Kansas City counters with Seth Lugo, and Lindy is staying away from the Royals side of this game entirely (more on that below). His read on the run line price is a straightforward value read, not a big directional lean: he thinks a number that generous on a favorite giving up a run and a half should be closer to +115, so +135 is "a value snag." Shop the exact number before you take it, because the gap between +115 and +135 is the entire edge here, the same price-versus-fair-value math OddsShopper's own board runs on every prop below.
Miguel Vargas: The Two-Homer Longshot He Kept Circling
Here's the payoff I promised up top. Lindy is on Miguel Vargas to hit 2+ home runs against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees' bullpen, a long plus-money price, sized at 0.1 units (small on purpose: this is a lottery ticket, not a base-rate bet). The case is a clean stack of outliers: Vargas is running a 159 wRC+-caliber power season with a habit of clearing 17 degrees of launch, he's at home in a park that plays short to the pull side, and Tuesday's weather has the wind blowing 17-20 mph out to right field with high humidity and low barometric pressure, all three of which carry the ball. He's been Lindy's guy against right-handed pitching most of this season for exactly that profile. A two-homer prop at this price only needs to hit once to pay for a long run of misses, which is why the stake stays tiny even when the conviction is real.
Jake McCarthy: A Hits-Runs-RBI Play With A Home Run Sweetener
Against Michael King and the Padres, Lindy is on Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI at +107 for a quarter unit, and he added a small home run prop on top at +1000 for another 0.1 units (what he calls "a sweetener"). The reasoning ties directly to King's batted-ball profile: King carries a 163 expected ISO allowed to lefties, but the real number he's actually giving up is closer to 100 ISO, and nearly all of the contact against him is of the fly-ball variety rather than line drives. That gap between what King's stuff should allow and what he's actually allowing is the outlier Lindy is pricing. He thinks the home run number should be closer to +750 or +800, which is why he was willing to layer a small add on top of the HRR play instead of walking away.
A Red Sox Strikeout Ladder At Fenway
Lindy backed a Red Sox starter's strikeout ladder for 0.7 units total: 6+ strikeouts at +110, 7+ at +215, and a smaller dab on the 8+ rung. The park is the outlier here working in his favor despite the matchup on paper looking tough: he's calling this pitcher "filthy" against one of the hottest offenses in baseball right now, and Tuesday's weather actually helps him, only about 7 mph of wind, low humidity, and high barometric pressure, all of which keep fly balls in the yard rather than turning them into extra-base damage. Fewer balls leaving the park means more full counts and more swings and misses, which is the swing state this K-ladder needs. It's the same rung-by-rung structure he used on Max Scherzer's ladder Monday, where the top rung hit for a small profit, proof that the low-rung, plus-money approach on a ladder can cash even when the headline strikeout total doesn't.
Reed Detmers: A Durability Under Against Houston
Against the Astros, Lindy is on Reed Detmers to go under his strikeout total, priced in the +118 range. This isn't a bet that Houston's lineup is scary; it's the opposite. The Astros carry a 20.5% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate against lefties, meaning they put the ball in play more than they miss it, and they can roll out eight right-handed bats if they choose to, limiting how hard Detmers can lean on his best weapon against lefty power. Layer in the situation: Detmers is a name in trade rumors alongside Zach Neto as the deadline approaches, which means the Angels have every incentive to showcase him in a normal start rather than push his pitch count. Lindy trims his simulated workload down to 90-92 pitches instead of his usual 95-96, and across 10,000 simulations that lands him in the 12-to-17-out range far more often than not, a short leash that caps the strikeout total even if the stuff is good.
Tuesday's Live Board Value (OddsShopper's Own Numbers, Not Lindy's Plays)
Separate from Lindy's card, this is where OddsShopper's de-vigged model sees the best prices on Tuesday's slate, and the top of the board lands in the exact game Lindy talked himself out of: Phillies-Marlins, the one he called too scary to tangle with because of Aaron Nola and Kyle Stowers' left-handed power in Citizens Bank Park.
| Player | Market | Best Price | Fair Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -130 (Bet365) | -146 | ~5.0% |
| Brandon Marsh | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | +173 | ~6.2% |
| Kyle Stowers | Under 0.5 Hits | +160 (Bet365) | +145 | ~6.1% |
| Joe Mack | Under 0.5 Hits | +110 (Bet365) | -101 | ~5.5% |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Bet365) | +156 | ~9.4% |
| Bo Bichette | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | +169 | ~7.8% |
| Austin Riley | Under 0.5 Hits | +120 (Bet365) | +108 | ~5.8% |
| Amed Rosario | Under 0.5 Hits | +170 (Bet365) | +159 | ~4.2% |
| Luis Torrens | Under 0.5 Hits | -120 (Bet365) | -130 | ~3.6% |
The single best de-vigged edge on the board is Ronald Acuña Jr. Under 0.5 hits at +180 (Bet365), a fair price of +156 against a takeable +180, roughly a 9.4% edge. But the callback worth noticing is Nola and Stowers both showing up here, in the same game Lindy said he didn't want to touch because Nola's lefty problem meets a lefty-heavy Marlins lineup in the best power park for lefties in baseball. He wasn't wrong to be nervous about picking a side (the board agrees the outcome is closer to a coin flip than the moneyline suggests), but the unders on both sides say there's real value in betting on quiet bats rather than picking a winner. Shop all of these on the live player hits board before you take a number, the same odds screen Lindy has open the entire show, and check the current sign-up terms at your book of choice on the FanDuel promo code page before you shop these Bet365 numbers elsewhere.
Leans Without A Fired Bet
- Diamondbacks–Pirates: an Arizona moneyline look against Bubba Chandler, but Lindy is staying off it: he doesn't want to tangle with a Pirates lineup that can be nuclear against lefties, even in a game he's not thrilled about either arm in.
- Rangers–Rays: a Tampa Bay run line at +120 he looked at hard, but he's passing because he doesn't want to bet into Tropicana Field's environment on this one.
- Royals–Twins (The Royals Side): a Seth Lugo outs number he took a hard look at but is staying away from, even though he thinks the Royals' bats do some damage against Kansas City's home park when the weather cooperates.
- Giants–Brewers: a San Francisco moneyline lean built around Landen Roupp, downgraded after a Giants infielder got banged up mid-game and the number never adjusted to account for it, enough to keep Lindy off the click.
- Blue Jays–Nationals: an under look at Washington's total, but 85% precipitation in D.C. has Lindy doubting the game is played at all; check the radar before touching anything on this slate.
- Rockies–Dodgers: a Justin Robleski under he likes on paper, but he wants lineup and starter confirmation first since a rotation shuffle could push a different arm into this start entirely.
Tuesday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | Run Line (~+135) | Half unit |
| Miguel Vargas | 2+ Home Runs (Long Plus-Money) | 0.1 units |
| Jake McCarthy | Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (+107) | Quarter unit |
| Jake McCarthy | To Hit A Home Run (+1000, Sweetener) | 0.1 units |
| Red Sox Starter | Strikeout Ladder (6+/7+/8+) | 0.7 units total |
| Reed Detmers | Under Strikeouts (~+118) | Smaller piece of the card |
Run any multi-leg version of this through the OddsShopper Parlay Builder so every leg still has to clear on its own, and if you're carrying a bonus bet from any of Tuesday's books, run it through the free bet converter before you burn it on a plain favorite.
FAQ
What is Lindy's safest play on Tuesday's card? The Minnesota Twins run line, priced around +135 for a half unit. He calls the price generous relative to what he thinks it's actually worth (closer to +115), which is a value read rather than a big directional lean.
Is the Miguel Vargas home run bet a real play or a lean? It's a fired play, sized at 0.1 units specifically because it's a longshot (2+ home runs, a long plus-money price). Small stakes on long prices is standard sizing for a prop like this — the case just has to be real, and here it's Vargas's launch profile meeting a wind-aided park.
Why does Lindy have two different bets on Jake McCarthy? The primary play is Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI at +107 for a quarter unit, built on Michael King's real fly-ball-heavy contact management against lefties. He added a small home run prop (+1000, 0.1 units) as what he calls a "sweetener" because he thinks that number should be priced closer to +750-800.
Why is Lindy passing on so many moneylines on Tuesday? Weather and injury news scrambled several games (a Guardians-Reds postponement turned doubleheader, heavy rain threatening the Nationals game, a banged-up Giants infielder). Rather than force a moneyline into a game he's not confident reading, he stayed on props and a run line where the process is cleaner.
Get These Numbers Before They Move
Prop prices swing hard from book to book, and Tuesday's de-vigged board already shows real value in the Phillies-Marlins unders above. Shop them on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, and follow Lindy's card on Tails to see exactly what he fires each day.
Get 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro with code BABYLINDY50 → (OddsShopper Pro also carries a 7-day free trial.) That's the same odds screen Lindy uses to shop DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365 against each other in real time.
