Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Best Bets For Thursday 7/30
Eric Lindquist (Lindy) opened Thursday's "Leans, Likes and Locks" still stinging from Wednesday: a Rafael Devers RBI got wiped off the board by a late scoring correction in Miami, even as a Jeremy Peña home run salvaged the evening window. That kind of night is exactly why he grades every play the same way regardless of how the last one landed, and Thursday's ten-game Major League Baseball card gives him a real mix to work with: two pitcher strikeout props, a home run swing at one of the sport's best power parks, a run line built on an injury absence, and a swing-and-miss matchup he calls his favorite play of the entire day. That last one is a name most casual bettors haven't circled yet, and it's worth reading all the way down for.
One vocabulary note, because it changes how you tail this: a lean is a game Lindy likes but hasn't bet, an official play is one he fired, and the sizing (quarter unit, half unit, 0.1 units) tells you the conviction. Don't treat a lean as a bet that was made.
Rafael Devers — the rescinded-RBI heartbreaker from Wednesday's recap, not one of Thursday's plays below.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card on Thursday leans on strikeout and home run props rather than moneylines: Sean Burke (CWS) Over 6.5 strikeouts against the Yankees, Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) to hit a home run at Great American Ball Park, the Boston Red Sox (BOS) on the run line against a shorthanded Athletics (ATH) lineup, an under on the Giants-Padres total, and his favorite play of the day, Roki Sasaki (LAD) going over his strikeout total against Seattle. The full breakdown of each play, the games he passed on entirely, and OddsShopper's own live value board for Thursday's card are below.
Watch The Video
Lindy builds this card game by game, cross-checking prices against multiple sportsbooks before he sizes anything. Watch it in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Sean Burke's Strikeout Ladder Against The Yankees
Lindy is on Sean Burke (CWS) Over 6.5 strikeouts against the New York Yankees, priced at -136. The number nearly made him sick when he first saw it, then the process talked him into it anyway: Burke is running a 36%-plus strikeout rate over his last 30 days, his stuff is fastball-heavy with plus location, and the Yankees lineup he's facing strikes out in bunches, with Trent Grisham the only bat up there he considers particularly strikeout-resistant. He'd already run a version of this same strikeout-ladder approach against Houston on Saturday and it cashed, which is part of why he trimmed the unit size here rather than skip it: he likes the process, but he isn't letting one good result talk him into oversizing the next one. Ryan Weathers (NYY) is on the other side of this game, but Lindy is staying off that strikeout number entirely, calling the current line "nuked" after heavy bullpen usage muddied his read on it.
Ryan O'Hearn's Home Run At A Park Built For It
In Pittsburgh's trip to Cincinnati, Lindy is on Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) to hit a home run, available around -130, sized at a quarter unit. He has his own number closer to -145, which is real value in a market he almost never plays: betting an individual home run prop is rare for him. The reasoning centers on Great American Ball Park itself, which carries a 118 home-run park factor, one of the more extreme HR environments in the sport even with its reputation as a smaller, quirkier yard. O'Hearn slots into the middle of the Pirates order behind Brandon Lowe (PIT) in the two-hole, and Lindy singled him out as one of the best pure contact hitters he evaluates, the profile he wants attacking a park that inflates fly-ball damage. He's facing Rhett Lowder (CIN) and the Reds, opposite Pittsburgh starter Yohan Ramírez (PIT).
Boston's Run Line Against A Shorthanded Athletics Lineup
Lindy's second-favorite play of the day is the Boston Red Sox (BOS) on the run line against the Athletics (ATH). It starts with an absence: Nick Kurtz (ATH) took a forearm shot and Lindy does not expect him to play, pulling one of the Athletics' biggest bats out of a lineup that now has to face Sonny Gray (BOS). Gray himself is trying to bounce back after a six-hit, third-inning collapse in his last start against Toronto snapped a run of nine consecutive quality starts, and Lindy is betting he rights that ship against a lineup missing its best hitter. On the other side, Athletics starter Mason Barnett (ATH) has been stretched out gradually and threw only 54 pitches across three and a third innings his last time out, so Lindy doesn't expect him to work deep into this one either. Fenway is a high-variance park and the total sits at 10.5, but the run line, not the total, is where Lindy put his money: a trusted arm and a healthy lineup against a shorthanded opponent and a short-leash starter.
An Under In A Rotation Battle Across The Bay
Lindy likes the under on the Giants-Padres total, and the pick survives a true coin flip in the Padres' rotation. Robbie Ray (SF) starts for San Francisco, and San Diego is deciding between Germán Márquez (SD) and JP Sears (SD), a decision Lindy pegs at roughly 50/50 as of recording. He prefers Sears in that spot, but the under works either way: Márquez was limited to roughly three and a half strikeouts across just 37 pitches in his last outing, a clear sign both San Diego arms are on a short leash right now. Combine that with a Padres bullpen that's already trending bullpen-heavy in recent games, and Lindy doesn't need to know which starter shows up to like the total going under 8.5.
Roki Sasaki: The Favorite Play Of The Day
Lindy's favorite play on Thursday's entire card is Roki Sasaki (LAD) going over his strikeout total against the Seattle Mariners, at +108, best price at FanDuel, sized at a half unit. It comes down to a single, extreme outlier: Sasaki grades out as the number one arm on the entire card in stuff-plus (the metric combining pitch velocity and movement), running 115 stuff-plus over his last month, a number Lindy called "unbelievable," with the splitter as the headline pitch. He's throwing in Los Angeles in weather flagged as legitimately favorable to hitters (humidity north of 50% for multiple days running), and the one real check on the matchup is the Mariners' own catching tandem: Cal Raleigh and Mitch Garver are tougher outs than the rest of that lineup, the push-and-pull that keeps this from being an even easier number. FanDuel gets called out by name as the book to check first: OddsShopper tracks pricing across every sportsbook, and FanDuel's strikeout market specifically prices sharper than most of the market, which is exactly why the best number on this prop is sitting there. The one real risk flagged is Sasaki's walk rate, which keeps this a half unit instead of a full one even on his top play of the day. Bryce Miller (SEA) starts across from him, but Lindy's play is squarely on the Sasaki strikeout number, not the moneyline or the total.
Shopping the strikeout market the way Lindy just did on Sasaki is exactly what the OddsShopper odds screen is built for, cross-checking FanDuel against every other book before you fire. Get 25% off OddsShopper Pro with code LINDY25.
One More Thing To Watch: Miami's Catcher Situation
Lindy flagged a lineup domino worth tracking in Miami's trip to Queens against the Mets. Joe Mack (MIA) is, in his words, one of the best defensive catchers in baseball at controlling the running game, and if he's behind the plate against Nolan McLean (NYM), he expects the Mets' running game to be muted. But if Mack is out of the lineup for any reason, Lindy's advice is to react immediately: fire a stolen-base parlay on whichever Mets speedster sits atop their base-stealing department, since the drop-off from Mack to a backup catcher's caught-stealing numbers is significant. This isn't a fired play as of recording, it's a lineup-news trigger, so the move is to check Miami's lineup card before first pitch rather than bet blind.
Leans Without A Fired Bet
- Royals-Twins: Lindy talked himself most of the way into the over on this game's total (9.5), pointing to favorable hitting weather for right-handed bats, but he stopped short of officially firing it and admitted he can't fully trust Kansas City's offense without Bobby Witt Jr. in the lineup on a given night.
- Caleb Durbin: a soft late-game home run hope Lindy mentioned in passing rather than a bet he placed.
Games He Passed On Entirely
- Rangers-Rays: Lindy walked through Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) against Shane McClanahan (TB) in detail, including trade-deadline workload questions with Monday's deadline approaching, but never landed on a number he liked enough to fire.
- Cubs-Cardinals: Javier Assad (CHC) against Andre Pallante (STL). Lindy said he has a slight preference for Assad but doesn't want to touch this game in any form.
- Nationals-Braves Home Run Props: with Jake Irvin (WSH) making his first start back from a shoulder injury opposite Grant Holmes (ATL), Lindy called the home run numbers on CJ Abrams (WSH), James Wood (WSH) and Matt Olson (ATL) "asinine," meaning priced too short to carry any value, and passed on all three.
Thursday's Live Board Value (OddsShopper's Own Numbers, Not Lindy's Plays)
Lindy passed on every home run prop in the Nationals-Braves game because the "yes" side looked overpriced. He didn't look at the other side of that market, so OddsShopper's own de-vigged board did: the same lineups show real value betting hitters to go hitless.
| Player | Market | Best Price | Fair Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubón (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +182 (Bet365) | +166 | ~6.0% |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Fanatics) | +167 | ~4.9% |
| Dylan Crews (WSH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 (Fanatics) | +163 | ~4.6% |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +155 (Fanatics) | +146 | ~3.7% |
| Daylen Lile (WSH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +185 (Bet365) | +175 | ~3.6% |
| Keibert Ruiz (WSH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Fanatics) | +172 | ~2.9% |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 (Fanatics) | +168 | ~2.6% |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 (Bet365) | +169 | ~2.2% |
| Nasim Nunez (WSH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +120 (Bet365) | +116 | ~1.9% |
| Jorbit Vivas (WSH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +125 (Fanatics) | +121 | ~1.8% |
| James Wood (WSH) | Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Fanatics) | +176 | ~1.4% |
The single best de-vigged edge on that board is Mauricio Dubón Under 0.5 hits at +182 (Bet365), a fair price of +166 against a takeable +182, roughly a 6.0% edge. Notice that James Wood and Matt Olson both show up here too, on the quiet side of the exact bats Lindy said were priced too short to homer. It's the same market from two directions: if the "yes" side is overpriced, the "no" side is where the value hides. The board found the same kind of number in Miami's game against the Mets, where Kyle Stowers (MIA) Under 0.5 hits is priced at +132 (Bet365) against a fair price of +123, about a 4.0% edge, in the same game Lindy is watching for the Joe Mack lineup news above. Shop all of these on the live player hits board before you take a number, and check the current sign-up terms at your book of choice on the FanDuel promo code page, the book's current offer and how to claim it, before you shop these Bet365 and Fanatics numbers elsewhere.
Thursday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke (CWS) | Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136) | Trimmed unit |
| Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) | To Hit A Home Run (~-130) | Quarter unit |
| Boston Red Sox (BOS) | Run Line Vs. Athletics | Second-favorite play |
| Giants-Padres | Under 8.5 Total | Standard play |
| Roki Sasaki (LAD) | Over Strikeouts (+108, FanDuel) | Half unit, top play of the day |
Run any multi-leg version of this through the OddsShopper Parlay Builder so every leg still has to clear on its own, and if you're carrying a bonus bet from any of Thursday's books, run it through the free bet converter before you burn it on a plain favorite.
FAQ
What is Lindy's favorite play on Thursday's card? Roki Sasaki (LAD) going over his strikeout total against the Mariners at +108 (FanDuel), a half unit. Lindy grades Sasaki as the number one arm on the card in stuff-plus and points to favorable hitting weather in Los Angeles as the reason the strikeout market, not the moneyline, is where the value sits.
Is the Royals-Twins over a real play or a lean? It's a lean, not a fired bet. Lindy talked himself most of the way into the total going over 9.5 on good hitting weather, but stopped short of officially playing it and said he doesn't trust Kansas City's offense on a given night without Bobby Witt Jr.
Why is Lindy betting an individual home run prop on Ryan O'Hearn? Lindy called a single-player home run bet rare for him. The reasoning is almost entirely park-driven: Great American Ball Park carries a 118 home-run park factor, one of the more extreme in baseball, and O'Hearn profiles as a strong contact hitter in the middle of Pittsburgh's order.
What should I watch for in the Marlins-Mets game? Whether Joe Mack (MIA) is catching. Lindy considers him one of the best defensive catchers in the sport at controlling the running game; if a backup catches instead, he says to fire a stolen-base parlay on the Mets' top base-stealer immediately.
Get These Numbers Before They Move
Prop prices swing hard from book to book, and Thursday's de-vigged board already shows real value in the Nationals-Braves and Marlins-Mets unders above. Shop them on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, and follow Lindy's card on Tails to see exactly what he fires each day.
Get 25% off OddsShopper Pro with code LINDY25.
OddsShopper Pro also carries a 7-day free trial, and it's the same odds screen Lindy uses to shop DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365 against each other in real time.
