Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Monday 8/3 Trade Deadline Eve Bets
Eric Lindquist (Lindy) posted his MLB picks today, Monday 8/3, just after midnight Eastern as part of his daily "Lindy's Leans, Likes and Locks" show, and the timing wasn't an accident: he wanted the full 18-hour window before first pitch, because Monday's eight-game card is sandwiched between two pieces of MLB trade deadline news. The weekend already delivered Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Tuesday brings the deadline itself, with reports already circulating on Kevin Gausman and Freddy Peralta (now a Tampa Bay Ray). Lindy's answer to all that noise is to play Monday "pretty straight up," treating the trade buzz as background instead of letting speculation bleed into a live betting card. He's carrying four fired plays, one favorite MLB prop pick on a name most bettors haven't circled yet, and a running list of what he's still watching in the Yankees' lineup before news breaks. That prop is worth reading all the way down for. It's the one he called himself "very, very, very interested" in.
One vocabulary note, because it changes how you read this: a lean is a game Lindy likes but hasn't bet, an official play is one he fired with a price and a size, and the sizing (small play, half unit, quarter unit) tells you the conviction. Don't treat a lean as a bet that was made.
Tarik Skubal, one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card for Monday 8/3 is built around totals and pitching, not a heavy moneyline slate: the Nationals-Phillies over 9.5 (+110) at Citizens Bank Park, the Texas Rangers moneyline against the Giants, the Houston Astros first five innings over 2.5 (-105) against a walk-prone Shane Bieber, and Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) under 2.5 earned runs (-115) riding a 14-start streak. His favorite non-standard play of the night is a Mickey Moniak (COL) home run prop at Coors Field. The full breakdown of each play, the game he explicitly passed on, and OddsShopper's own live value board for Monday's slate are below.
Watch The Video
Lindy builds this card game by game, cross-checking prices before he sizes anything and flagging what he's still watching ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline. Watch it in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
The Nationals-Phillies Over, Built On Aaron Nola's Home Splits
Lindy is on the Nationals-Phillies over 9.5, priced at +110, a number he specifically shopped up from the standard 9 (sitting at -120) to buy the extra half run at plus money. The play centers on Aaron Nola (PHI) at Citizens Bank Park, one of the best parks in baseball for left-handed power, where Nola's home numbers are ugly on their own: a 1.67 WHIP, a .311 batting average against, and a 6.70 ERA. Washington hasn't named a starter, but Lindy's guess is Trevor Williams (WSH), working his way back up and settling in as a fifth starter behind Cade Cavalli and Jesús Luzardo, not exactly reinforcements for what he calls one of the weakest bullpens in the sport. Add in decent summer hitting weather with a slight wind blowing out, and both bullpens are the softest part of this game long before either starter is done.
Texas's Moneyline Against A Giants Lineup In Flux
Lindy's next play is the Texas Rangers on the moneyline against the San Francisco Giants, with Logan Webb (SF) opposing Cal Quantrill (TEX). The number moved on him: DraftKings shows -109, but he got in at -105, and his advice is to take anything inside -115 for a half unit. The case leans on the Rangers' offense, not Quantrill's 4-3 record and 3.84 ERA: Texas has posted a 108 wRC+ and a .196 ISO against right-handed pitching since July 1, and Corey Seager (TEX) is back in the lineup. The Giants side is the bigger variable. Lindy expects Heliot Ramos (SF) and potentially Willy Adames (SF) to be out of Monday's lineup as the trade deadline approaches, which is real downside for a team already flipping in unproven bats. If those names were locked into the lineup, he says he'd favor the Giants at this price; with them likely out, he's on Texas.
Houston's First Five, Built On Shane Bieber's Meltdown
The Houston Astros first five innings over 2.5, priced at -105, is Lindy's way of fading Shane Bieber (TOR) without touching the full game. Bieber followed a rough outing against the Rays with one that was worse: six walks and an exit before he recorded three outs in the first inning against his last opponent. Cristian Javier (HOU) is on the other side, working back from a bullpen role and unlikely to go long himself, but Lindy's play is squarely on Houston's lineup doing damage early against Bieber at Daikin Park, where the short porch to left has already turned into a launching pad for Isaac Paredes (HOU) and Christian Walker (HOU). Jeremy Peña (HOU) is the name Lindy keeps coming back to in this lineup. He admitted he talked himself out of Peña's own home run prop earlier this week and watched it cash without him, which is part of why he's leaning on the Astros' bats again here.
Bieber's first-inning line is exactly the kind of number that moves between books once the market catches up. Cross-check it on the OddsShopper first-five and gamelines board before you fire, and see the current sign-up offer on the FanDuel promo code page, which covers the book's current offer and how to claim it, before you shop this one elsewhere.
Brandon Pfaadt's Streak, And Why Lindy Doesn't Usually Trust Streaks
Lindy's smallest-sized play of the night is Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) under 2.5 earned runs at -115. He's explicit that he isn't a trends bettor and doesn't like betting off a streak on its own, but Pfaadt's streak comes with real process behind it: 14 consecutive starts allowing fewer than three runs, built on a walk rate that's stayed down, a strand rate that's climbed, and solid defense behind him. San Diego's lineup has hit right-handed pitching better over the last month, but Lindy points out the real threats from the left side are limited to Jackson Merrill (SD) and Gavin Sheets (SD). Everyone else Pfaadt has to get through is a right-handed bat, headlined by Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD). Michael King (SD) starts the other half of this game for the Padres, and on the trade front, Lindy flagged that San Diego reportedly shut down a deadline conversation involving Adrian Morejón, calling him one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball, a sign the Padres aren't selling off their best bullpen piece even with a Yankees offer of Will Warren (NYY) on the table.
The Favorite Prop Of The Night: Mickey Moniak At Coors Field
Lindy's favorite non-standard play on Monday's card is Mickey Moniak (COL) over 1.5 home runs, available on player-pick platforms, and he called himself "very, very, very interested." The case comes from both sides of the mound: Ian Seymour (TB), Colorado's Monday opponent, is allowing a .303 ISO against a .199 expected ISO to left-handed hitters despite a strikeout rate near 30% against them, and Michael Lorenzen (COL), Colorado's own starter, is allowing a nearly identical gap on the other side, a .266 ISO against a .215 expected ISO. That combination of real swing-and-miss stuff still getting hit hard on contact is exactly the profile Lindy wants to attack. Moniak is the left-handed power bat in that lineup he's willing to single out; he's not calling anyone else on that side of Colorado's order a true power threat. Jake McCarthy (COL) gets an honorable mention as a hitter he considers underpriced against lefties even while batting near the top of the order. Coors Field's wind is only blowing in at 10 miles per hour Monday, which barely dents its power profile: even with the wind working against hitters, the park still plays above league average for home runs.
On the platform mechanics: Lindy flagged real void risk here since Brenton Doyle (COL) is out of Colorado's lineup, which can downgrade a multi-leg pick'em card. His advice is to lean toward Underdog over PrizePicks for this specific card: a three-pick that gets voided down to two still pays out at -115 per leg on Underdog, while a downgraded PrizePicks card (six legs to five, or five to four) pays out worse. Shop the same matchup on the OddsShopper home run props board before deciding which platform to use.
What Lindy Is Watching Before He Bets The Yankees' Lineup
Lindy didn't fire a play in the Cardinals-Yankees game (Michael McGreevy for St. Louis against Cam Schlittler for New York), but he's tracking one specific domino: whether Luis García Jr. (NYY), newly acquired, ends up anywhere in Monday's lineup. He doesn't expect a start, calling it unlikely a player gets traded, passes a physical and plays the same day, but even a pinch-hit appearance late would push right-handed bats like Jasson Domínguez (NYY), José Caballero (NYY) or Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) into a DH spot or off the bench, thinning out New York's lineup against right-handed pitching. His guidance is to check the news before betting any individual Yankees hitter unders Monday, not to bet them blind now.
Where OddsShopper's Board Agrees With The Slate Lindy Built
Lindy's Monday card leans on totals and pitching props, and OddsShopper's own de-vigged board finds value in the same three games from a different angle: hitters and pitchers priced short of where the math says they should be.
| Player | Market | Best Price | Fair Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasson Domínguez (NYY) | Under 0.5 Hits | +185 (Bet365) | +162 | +8.8% |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | +179 | +3.9% |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +165 (Bet365) | +155 | +3.9% |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | +180 | +3.6% |
| Manny Machado (SD) | Under 0.5 Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +185 | +3.5% |
| Michael King (SD) | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | +100 (Bet365) | -106 | +2.7% |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | Under 0.5 Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +188 | +2.4% |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +150 (Bet365) | +145 | +2.0% |
| Ivan Herrera (STL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +140 (Bet365) | +136 | +1.7% |
| Brandon Sproat (MIL) | Under 1.5 Earned Runs | +115 (HardRock) | +112 | +1.4% |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | +186 | +1.4% |
The single best de-vigged edge on the board is Jasson Domínguez under 0.5 hits at +185 (Bet365), a fair price of +162 against a takeable +185, roughly an 8.8% edge, and it's the same Yankees lineup Lindy is watching for the García Jr. news above, just the value side of it rather than the news-contingent unders he's waiting on. The board also likes the Brewers-Pirates game Lindy talked through but never fired a number on: Brandon Sproat (MIL), the Brewers starter, shows a +1.4% edge on his own earned-run total, and Jackson Chourio (MIL) and Christian Yelich (MIL) both grade out with real value going hitless against a Pittsburgh staff that's been better than its record. Shop all of these on the live player hits board before you take a number.
Monday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals-Phillies | Over 9.5 Total Runs | +110 | Standard play |
| Texas Rangers | Moneyline Vs. Giants | -105 (take up to -115) | Half unit |
| Houston Astros | First Five Innings Over 2.5 | -105 | Standard play |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Under 2.5 Earned Runs | -115 | Small play |
| Mickey Moniak (COL) | Over 1.5 Home Runs | Player-pick platform | Favorite prop of the night |
Lindy is shopping every one of these numbers across books before he fires, which is exactly what the OddsShopper odds screen and its Liquidity Tool are built for: tailing sharp money on prediction markets like Novig and Kalshi alongside every major sportsbook. Get 25% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro with code LINDY25.
How To Read Lindy's Sizing: A Worked Example
Take the Rangers moneyline play above as a worked example of how Lindy's shopping-and-sizing process actually pays off. DraftKings posted Texas at -109, meaning you'd risk $109 to win $100. Lindy found -105 elsewhere, which drops the risk on that same $100 win down to $105, a four-cent improvement that adds up over a full season of MLB best bets. He drew his cutoff at -115: anything from -105 to -115 still clears his threshold for a half-unit play, but a number worse than -115 would have pushed the risk-to-reward ratio too far out of line with the edge he sees in Texas's .196 ISO and 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since July 1. That's the same math behind every trade-deadline bet on this card: shop the number first, then size around the best price you can actually get, not the first one you see.
FAQ
What is Lindy's favorite play on Monday's card? Mickey Moniak (COL) going over 1.5 home runs against the Rays at Coors Field. Lindy pointed to a real two-way outlier: Colorado starter Michael Lorenzen and Tampa Bay starter Ian Seymour are both allowing more real power than their strikeout numbers suggest. He called himself "very, very, very interested."
Is the Cardinals-Yankees game a real play or a lean? Neither yet. It's a news-contingent watch, not a fired bet. Lindy is waiting to see whether Luis García Jr. (NYY) appears anywhere in New York's Monday lineup before betting any individual Yankees hitter under.
Why is Lindy betting the Rangers moneyline instead of the Giants? He'd favor the Giants if San Francisco's likely-out bats, Heliot Ramos (SF) and possibly Willy Adames (SF), were locked into Monday's lineup. With them expected out ahead of the trade deadline, he's on Texas, backed by a .196 ISO and 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since July 1.
What should I know about Brandon Pfaadt's under before betting it? Lindy stressed he isn't a trends bettor and doesn't like betting a streak on its own. He's playing it small specifically because the process behind Pfaadt's 14-start streak (walk rate down, strand rate up, strong defense) backs it up more than the streak itself does.
Get These Numbers Before They Move
Prices move fast between now and first pitch, and Monday's de-vigged board already shows real value in the Yankees and Brewers-Pirates games above. Shop them on the OddsShopper MLB moneyline board, run any multi-leg version of Monday's card through the Parlay Builder so every leg still has to clear on its own, and follow Lindy's card on Tails to see exactly what he fires each day. If you're carrying a bonus bet into tonight's slate, run it through the free bet converter before you burn it on a plain favorite.
Get 25% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro with code LINDY25.
OddsShopper Pro also carries a 7-day free trial, and it's the same odds screen Lindy uses to shop DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365 against each other before the trade deadline hits Tuesday.
